Wall Street is in the midst of a debate: Did a new bull market just begin, or is there more work to be done?
The benchmark S&P 500 index has been in a technical bear market since June 2022, when it closed 20% below its all-time high. The index has since mostly recovered, and it now trades 22% above its low point set in October 2022. That has prompted some Wall Street analysts -- including those at Bank of America Securities -- to declare the beginning of a new bull market.
But the S&P 500 remains 7.7% below its all-time high, and another popular view is that it needs to make up that ground before the bear market is truly vanquished. Here's the good news: The average investor shouldn't worry about the semantics, because throughout history, the broader market has always fully recovered given enough time.
The following two stocks are having a spectacular year in 2023, paying no regard to the market's official classification. Here's why investors should consider buying them now.
1. Netflix: Up 46% so far in 2023
Netflix (NFLX -1.15%) is the undisputed leader in the streaming industry, and it's also the only stand-alone player generating a profit. Up until recently, investors were growing concerned that the company was approaching a brick wall in terms of growth because it struggled to expand its subscriber base of 232 million customers. But thanks to a few tweaks to its business model, it's entering a new phase with significant potential.
Last year, Netflix introduced a new subscription tier supported by advertising. It costs just $6.99 per month, which is much cheaper than its most expensive premium tier priced at $19.99. But while it's cheaper, Netflix says it's actually driving more revenue per user than both its basic plan and standard plan thanks to the favorable economics associated with selling advertising spots.
Netflix's crackdown on account sharing is going to be another major growth driver. The company estimates more than 100 million households around the world "borrow" Netflix for free from someone else, so converting some of those borrowers to paid members would be a significant financial windfall. It has now made technical changes that only allow users to share a Netflix account if they live in the same household. It also introduced a new sharing plan that will enable subscribers to add one additional member (outside the household) to their account for just $7.99 per month.
Of course, locking people out of the Netflix account they've been borrowing for years was always going to cause some backlash, but the company felt it had far more to gain at this point than it could possibly lose. The timing was strategic because Netflix basically waited until its user growth slowed into the single digits to shake up its business model, so as not to disrupt its momentum if things went wrong.
Netflix stock is up a whopping 46% in 2023 so far, and the new ad-supported plan plus the crackdown on account sharing have Wall Street excited. In June alone, at least six major investment banks and analyst firms upgraded their price targets for Netflix stock, with the highest being $500 a share. That represents about 13% upside from where it trades today, but over the long term, the company's strategic shift could deliver significantly more value.
After all, Netflix stock still trades about 37% below its all-time high of $690, and a new bull market might offer the nudge it needs to approach that level once again.
2. Spotify: Up 103% in 2023
Like Netflix, Spotify (SPOT -1.06%) dominates its industry. It's the world's largest music-streaming and podcasting platform. These industries are highly competitive and it's very difficult for platforms to stand out because they're essentially offering the same service. As a result, delivering a unique user experience is crucial, and Spotify is winning in that area relative to Apple Music or Amazon Music.
Personalization is key to driving consumption on music-streaming platforms. Without a powerful recommendation engine, users will simply visit Spotify when they're looking for a specific track or artist, as opposed to using the service as a way to discover music they might like. In the first quarter of 2023 (ended March 31), Spotify released its new artificial intelligence (AI) DJ called DJ X. It uses a software-generated voice to offer a personalized experience for each user, and it recommends songs based on users' listening habits and preferences on the platform.
Spotify said when a user engaged DJ X in Q1, it accounted for 25% of their listening time, which is quite impressive given it's a brand-new feature.
The company also refreshed its home screen during the quarter to incorporate video, which is an increasingly important form of media, especially for younger users (just look at the success of TikTok, for example). To be clear, Spotify is not becoming a social media platform, but rather users will be more exposed to artist-generated video content to help drive engagement.
Spotify had 515 million monthly active users at the end of Q1, up 22% year over year. Its free ad-supported tier outperformed, growing by 26% to reach 317 million active users, which isn't surprising in a challenging economic environment where consumers are trying to save money. Overall, the results drove Spotify's revenue to over $3 billion for the quarter, which was a 14% year-over-year increase.
Despite a powerful 103% gain in Spotify stock in 2023 so far, it remains down 56% from its all-time high. If the company's new features -- both video and AI-powered -- lead to higher engagement, that could be particularly lucrative for the ad-supported tier, because the more time users spend in the app, the more ads they'll consume. If that results in an uptick in revenue growth, Spotify stock should continue to recover -- especially with the help of a new bull market.
