A double in five years translates to a compound annual return of 15%. That is higher than the market's historical return of about 10%, but it's not as difficult as you might think to beat the market.
The best path to earning double every five years is to invest in companies that are also growing revenue by around 15% or more per year. There is a high correlation between a company's revenue growth and the stock's ability to outperform over many years. By narrowing your choices to companies with above-average top-line growth, you'll invest in stronger companies and increase the chances of hitting your return goal.
To give you some examples, let's see why three Motley Fool contributors believe Airbnb (ABNB 0.75%), Lululemon Athletica (LULU 1.31%), and Kura Sushi (KRUS 4.25%) could double in five years.
1. Growth, profits, and cash equal an incredible opportunity
Jennifer Saibil (Airbnb): Airbnb's rebound is complete, so much so that growth has dramatically decelerated. But despite all sorts of headwinds, sales growth remains in the double digits. The company has also become comfortably profitable and has tons of new ventures and opportunities, and this winner has massive potential.
Loyal customers just can't get enough of Airbnb's interesting rentals that allow them to be a part of residential communities and experience new destinations, often at a fraction of hotel prices. In many areas, there simply aren't even options for hotels. In almost any region on the planet that you can get to with a car or an airplane, you'll find an Airbnb to stay in.
In the first quarter of 2023, revenue increased 20% over last year, another slowdown. But don't be deceived by this metric. Despite inflation and a sluggish economy, Airbnb had its highest-ever active customer bookings.
Cross-border travel is maintaining momentum, with nights booked up 36% from last year. And long stays, which are 28 days or more, have become an integral part of the business at 18% of bookings. This demonstrates Airbnb's differentiated model of being more than a hotel alternative for vacations and instead a real living opportunity.
Airbnb has incredible brand power, and as more people recognize it as a rental option, more people sign up as hosts, creating a highly beneficial cycle.
It has now posted many consecutive quarters of positive net income, demonstrating long-term viability, with particular strength in soaring free cash flow.
ABNB Net Income (Quarterly) data by YCharts.
All of this points to more growth ahead. But management is focusing on where it could improve, and it's taken action, like investing in markets that were identified as underpenetrated. The company is already seeing results from those efforts, with Germany and Brazil, two of these markets, becoming some of its fastest-growing regions.
We see how Airbnb can grow. Can its stock double?
Sales growth is expected to continue decelerating, and management is guiding for a 14% year-over-year increase in the second quarter of 2023. If we use that as a rate for the next five years, trailing-12-month revenue of $8.7 billion would just about double during that time to $16.7 billion. I think that's a fair assumption, given today's operating conditions and Airbnb's growing maturity. With doubled revenue, it's also fair to say the stock price could double.
2. The next global activewear giant
John Ballard (Lululemon Athletica): Lululemon is emerging as the next global athletic wear giant next to industry leaders Nike and Adidas. While the leaders dominate the market for sneakers, Lululemon is cornering the market on apparel.
The exciting aspect of Lululemon's growth story is that it is still a relatively small business. Nike generates more than $50 billion of revenue per year, but Lululemon is still working toward its first $10 billion. Over the last four quarters, Lululemon generated $8.5 billion in revenue, with growth of 24% year over year in the fiscal first quarter of 2023.
The rate of revenue growth is tracking ahead of Lululemon's previous 10-year record of growing the top line by nearly 20% per year. That is quite impressive and certainly indicates a major global brand on the rise. Lululemon is primarily a North American brand, but international revenue is growing very fast, up 60% year over year in the last quarter.
The stock can certainly double in five years. It tripled over the last five years, yet the company's price-to-sales valuation is slightly lower than it was five years ago. That means the stock has been following the company's revenue, which is all investors need to double their money again.
Given the recent business momentum, and management's target to double revenue by 2026 from 2021 levels, the stock could deliver a two-bagger for investors in five years.
3. A fast-growing sushi chain
Jeremy Bowman (Kura Sushi): Plenty of restaurant stocks have failed in their attempt to be the "next Chipotle," but one fast-growing chain has many of the elements that made the burrito roller a star.
That's Kura Sushi, and the stock looks like a good bet to double in the next five years.
A subsidiary of a Japanese sushi chain, Kura Sushi offers a unique concept: a revolving sushi bar where patrons can select the dishes they want as they pass by in addition to ordering off the menu.
Kura Sushi is still small, with just 47 restaurants in the U.S., according to its most recent earnings report, and its recent results have been impressive.
In its just-finished fiscal third quarter, comparable sales rose 10.3%, driving overall revenue up 29% to $49.2 million. The company is aggressively expanding its footprint with plans to open nine to 11 new restaurants this year.
Kura's profitability is also improving quickly. It reported a restaurant-level operating margin of 23.5% in the third quarter, up from 22.5% in the quarter a year ago, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose from $3.2 million to $5.1 million.
Kura sees room in the market to open at least 300 restaurants, or more than six times what it has today, and the company is still small with a market cap of just $1 billion.
If it executes on its growth plan and its profit margins continue to improve, the stock has a good chance of doubling by 2028.
