Over the past two decades, Salesforce modernized the customer relationship management (CRM) business by replacing Rolodexes and desktop-based software with cloud-based services. That approach enabled companies to maintain consistent records, compartmentalize and analyze each customer, and scale their businesses more easily.
Between fiscal 2003 and fiscal 2023 (which ended this January), Salesforce's revenue soared from $51 million to $31.4 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38%. Its stock has risen 5,200% over the past 20 years.
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Salesforce's returns are astounding, but its growth is cooling off as it matures. So instead of sticking with its stock, many growth-oriented investors are already searching for the "next Salesforce," which can carve out a new niche in the software market. Could the robotic process automation (RPA) leader UiPath (PATH 0.26%) fit that bill?
What does UiPath do?
UiPath develops software robots that can be integrated into an organization's existing software applications to automate repetitive tasks like entering data, processing invoices, onboarding customers, and sending out mass emails. By installing those robots, companies can replace their human employees, streamline their operations, and cut costs.
UiPath's first-mover advantage made it the leader of this niche market. According to Gartner, it controlled 34% of the global RPA market in 2021, and it actually expanded its share that year as all of its smaller rivals lost ground.
Can UiPath scale up its business?
From fiscal 2020 to 2023 (which ended this January), UiPath's revenue had a CAGR of 47%, from $336 million to $1.06 billion. By comparison, Salesforce generated $1.08 billion in revenue in fiscal 2009. Salesforce subsequently grew its revenue at a compound annual rate of 27% from fiscal 2009 to 2023.
However, analysts only expect UiPath's revenue to show a CAGR of 19% from fiscal 2023 to 2026 as it faces tougher macro and competitive headwinds.
We should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but UiPath's growth has clearly decelerated over the past year. Even though the installation of its RPA tools might help companies reduce their long-term expenses, many of those potential customers have been reining in their software spending to cope with near-term macro headwinds.
As the market's demand for RPA tools cools off, more competitors -- including Salesforce's MuleSoft RPA, Microsoft's Power Automate, and Appian RPA -- are all creeping into UiPath's backyard.
Salesforce and Microsoft could cause a lot of trouble because they can both bundle their RPA services into their market-leading cloud ecosystems. Both of those tech giants could also integrate more generative AI tools (like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Salesforce's Einstein GPT) to automate more processes and eliminate the need for third-party RPA services.
To make matters worse, UiPath isn't profitable yet, and analysts expect it to rack up between $100 million to $200 million in net losses annually through fiscal 2026. All of that red ink could make it tough to keep pace with the competition.
UiPath still has a lot to prove
Like Salesforce, UiPath carved out a niche in the software market with a platform that digitally transformed businesses. But unlike Salesforce, UiPath didn't have the luxury of expanding for years before bigger competitors entered the market.
Instead of creating a brand-new cloud-based platform like Salesforce, UiPath only created automation bots that can be integrated into a company's existing software. Tech giants like Microsoft and Salesforce might be eager to purge those third-party bots from their platforms, while their clients might prefer to use their first-party automation tools instead.
Based on all these facts, I don't think UiPath will evolve into the next Salesforce. It might still have room to grow, since Fortune Business Insights estimates the global RPA market will still have a CAGR of 23% between 2022 and 2029. But it's far too early to declare that it can expand out of its niche and evolve into a tech giant.
