Kraft Heinz (KHC -0.55%) estimates that at least one of its products sits on the shelves of nearly every U.S. household -- a dominant market position if there ever was one for a consumer food company. And yet, Kraft has provided investors with lackluster returns. Over the last five years, its shares are down more than 40%, whereas the S&P 500 has climbed by nearly 60%.
On Aug. 14, Kraft Heinz announced that Chairman and CEO Miguel Patricio will transition to the position of non-executive chair of the board at the start of next year. In his place, Carlos Abrams-Rivera is being promoted from his present responsibilities as executive vice president of the company and president of its operations in North America.
Is this the move that Kraft Heinz needs to make to generate better returns for investors? Let's take a closer look.
What's gone wrong for Kraft Heinz
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns more than 325 million shares of Kraft Heinz stock as of the company's most recent filing, which is more than a quarter of the company. Kraft Heinz's dominant market position undoubtedly attracted Buffett to the stock. After all, Buffett often speaks to the importance of having a competitive moat. And given its ubiquity, Kraft Heinz appears to have one.
That said, Kraft Heinz stock hasn't been a good investment for Berkshire Hathaway. In fact, it's the biggest loser on Buffett's scorecard right now in dollar terms. I believe three main factors contributed to the 40%-plus drop in Kraft Heinz's stock price over the past five years.
First, loaded down with ten of billions of dollars in long-term debt, the company drastically reduced its dividend to focus on paying it down. Second, it's written off billions of dollars in goodwill impairment charges, which indicates that management overpaid for past acquisitions. And third, Kraft Heinz simply hasn't grown its business in a manner that excites investors.
Setting realistic expectations for investors
Changing CEOs doesn't change the present reality for Kraft Heinz. The company still has $19.3 billion in long-term debt as of its most recent quarter, which currently costs the company over $200 million in quarterly interest expenses. And it still has nearly $31 billion in goodwill on the balance sheet that may need to be reduced in the future with additional impairment charges.
Abrams-Rivera can't undo what's been done. Therefore, it's important to ask if he can fix the third aforementioned issue by stimulating more growth from Kraft Heinz's business. But I don't believe that's a reasonable expectation for investors right now either.
When it comes to growth, Kraft Heinz doesn't appear to have high expectations. For starters, at the company's Investor Day presentation in 2020, management set the bar for organic net-sales growth at only 1% to 2% annually. Earnings per share guidance was only slightly better at 4% to 6% annual growth.
The problem with the organic net sales metric is that it doesn't take into account things like divestitures and the impact of foreign currency fluctuations, which are impacting Kraft Heinz's top line. In fiscal 2022, the company's organic net sales grew 9.8%, far surpassing management's long-term guidance. But real net sales were only up 1.7%, which isn't much growth at all.
Moreover, in its 2020 Investor Day presentation, Kraft Heinz's management spoke about finding gross savings in the billions of dollars by 2024. However, total operating expenses have continued to rise faster than revenue. And its overall gross profit has gone up slower than revenue. Both metrics suggest that management isn't finding the promised cost savings.
KHC Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
Nevertheless, in the press release announcing the leadership change, Kraft Heinz's board of directors praised current CEO Patricio, saying that his leadership "was instrumental to the company's turnaround." But it seems very generous to call recent results a turnaround. The financial results look more like business as usual to me.
The appointment of Abrams-Rivera to the CEO position is being talked about as the next step of Kraft Heinz's turnaround, not an abrupt turn in a new direction. Therefore, I would expect much of the same from the company going forward.
To be fair, as head of Kraft Heinz in the U.S., Abrams-Rivera has engineered some interesting partnerships, including getting the company's Lunchables brand into the National School Lunch Program. Lunchables are expected in schools this fall, which should provide some growth. But terms of the deal weren't disclosed, so investors can't put a dollar amount on this news quite yet.
That said, I don't believe Kraft Heinz's change in leadership will be a major catalyst for the business. I continue to expect the company to grow modestly while focusing on the reduction of its substantial debt load. And that might not be a good enough recipe to improve the prospects for the stock.
