The stock market has been a roller coaster recently. The S&P 500 market index fell 19% in 2022, gaining 16% on the rebound so far in 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index swung even harder over the same periods, falling 33% last year with a 31% recovery for so far this year.
The climb is a good start, but we're not looking at a real bull market yet. Both of the big market indexes are still down significantly from the start of 2022. As a result of the slow and unpredictable return to full economic health, many top-quality tech stocks are still on fire sale. Yes, even in the booming subsector of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
So we asked some of The Motley Fool's top tech contributors to share their best AI investments at this juncture. Billy Duberstein likes Intel's (INTC -9.20%) low share price and promising AI prospects. Alphabet (GOOG 9.96%) (GOOGL 10.22%) is another value-priced AI titan in the eyes of Nick Rossolillo. And Anders Bylund thinks he may have found the most undervalued AI stock of all in Fiverr International (FVRR 3.74%).
Read on to see how these three AI experts are poised to perform when the next bull run takes off.
Could Intel's turnaround be taking hold?
Billy Duberstein (Intel): I haven't been enthusiastic about Intel over the past few years. Its core PC business has gone into a big downturn, causing cash flow to plummet as the company attempts an ambitious and costly turnaround. That's made the stock a risky bet.
But Intel's market cap is now just one-eighth that of Nvidia's, less than one-third that of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's, and about 15% below that of Advanced Micro Devices. That's in spite of Intel's having a similar product portfolio to AMD, a nascent accelerator business it hopes will challenge Nvidia, and an early-stage foundry business it hopes to take on TSMC. So, it won't take much going right for the stock to do well from these beaten-down levels (down 40% so far this year).
And recently, there have been indications Intel's turnaround may in fact be taking hold.
INTC Market Cap data by YCharts
The ascent of AI could be a net positive for Intel, as the rise of GPU-accelerated computing shouldn't necessarily crowd out the need for CPUs. AI should result in higher computing demands in general, which is a positive for the company.
Moreover, Intel has its own new GPU accelerator portfolio showing early signs of momentum. On the second-quarter conference call with analysts in July, CEO Pat Gelsinger noted that Intel's AI accelerator portfolio had seen its pipeline opportunity grow to $1 billion. While that pales in comparison to the numbers Nvidia is putting up, the $1 billion marks a sixfold gain relative to just the prior quarter. As AI demand continues unabated and customers look for alternatives to Nvidia's expensive GPUs, Intel could very well score a significant piece of the AI pie if it executes.
Meanwhile, the nascent foundry business is also making progress. At a recent industry conference, Gelsinger reportedly disclosed that one large customer had made a large pre-payment and that Intel would be accelerating the buildout of its leading-edge 18A and 20A foundries next year based on that commitment. Those leading-edge fabs could also produce accelerators for other AI chipmakers that would like an alternative foundry to TSMC.
Finally, Intel's core PC processor business has recently shown signs of bottoming out. At that same conference, Gelsinger disclosed that Intel's current quarter was tracking above the midpoint of guidance. Inventory in PC supply chain seems to have finally normalized, which could lead to better performance in the year ahead and give Intel more firepower to invest in its turnaround.
Intel also reiterated that its roadmap to achieve five process nodes in four years, whereby it would catch up to TSMC and AMD by 2025, remains on track. That seems to indicate that the company is executing much better under Gelsinger, who took over in 2021 with a plan to bring Intel back after it fell behind in leading-edge technology.
All in all, Intel's improving execution, nascent foundry business, and unsung AI accelerator portfolio give it multiple shots on goal to benefit in the age of AI. Meanwhile, Intel's low valuation compared with its peers gives it a smaller hurdle to clear for the stock to work.
AI may be Fiverr's best friend, not a foe
Anders Bylund (Fiverr): Many investors worry that AI might kill Fiverr. If every creative task and data-crunching job can be done by computers, who needs to hire a human freelancer? That's why the stock has traded sideways in 2023, missing the soaring surge of most AI stocks.
But the thing is, AI is not a threat to Fiverr. We are many years -- maybe decades -- away from when automated machine systems really can do a human's creative work from start to finish. So far, even the best generative AI systems rely on human input to get started. To maintain quality, real people also need to edit whatever the AI robots come up with, give the final go-ahead to publish something AI-generated, and generally manage the entire generative AI process.
As such, Fiverr should experience an influx of freelancers who specialize in running the AI show. Some people will figure out how to use AI tools to fine-tune their own writing, digital art, electronic music, and so on. As a result, they will be able to do better work in less time with less effort.
It's a lot like Henry Ford bringing mass production and standardized car parts into the car-building business, disrupting the auto industry and industrial production in general. Ford still needed people, but the automated workflow boosted the production output and raised the quality of the resulting cars.
Fiverr's freelancers can serve a similar role today, applying AI tools to creative processes and data analytics. That's a clear advantage in my eyes, and I'm just scratching my head over the idea that AI is a threat to this company.
Fiverr CEO Micha Kaufman agrees. Speaking at a recent tech industry conference, Kaufman described the AI situation this way:
AI is incredible, but making the most out of it requires a lot of human talent. And documented talent could be found on Fiverr and is being searched on Fiverr. And this is why we're not concerned. For us, it's a net positive.
Beyond the AI opportunity, Fiverr is getting back to solid business growth after an inflation-inspired downturn. Sales are growing again, alongside richer cash flows and smaller bottom-line losses:
FVRR Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts
And after skipping the AI boom, Fiverr's stock trades more than 90% below the all-time high of early 2021. You can pick up Fiverr shares at the deeply undervalued valuation of 14 times forward earnings estimates or 3.2 times sales. This bargain-bin growth stock is ready to run when the economy gets back on its proverbial feet, and keep running as freelancers make their AI-boosted services available on this leading gig economy platform.
Google is already huge, but AI will make it even bigger
Nicholas Rossolillo (Alphabet): Megacap tech stocks have been leading the market higher this year as generative AI hype has put the bear back to sleep. Alphabet, Google's parent company, is a top performer, notching a more than 50% rally so far in 2023 and up more than 60% from its multiyear lows last November.
Some investors wonder when smaller-cap stocks will join the AI party. I believe they will, eventually. However, in an era of generative AI, where massive amounts of data are required to fully participate, megacaps like Alphabet can continue to lead the charge higher. And Google in particular has a tremendous amount of data.
Case in point: Alphabet flexed its financial muscle in Q2, with just a 7% year-over-year increase in revenue equating to a 19% jump in earnings per share. Cost cuts and ongoing stock repurchases (a form of excess cash return to shareholders) helped, but the Google Cloud segment was another big reason for the profit outperformance. Google Cloud sales increased 28% year over year and have swung out of operating loss territory and into operating profit.
On the most recent earnings call in late July, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai explained that a multitude of AI startups have been flocking to Google Cloud. That's thanks to the company's pioneering work, alongside Nvidia, in making generative AI-powered applications a reality. Google Cloud also has efficient AI-training and app deployment infrastructure, featuring both high-end GPUs from the likes of Nvidia and its own custom-designed chips, which it calls TPUs, or tensor processing units, that make operating AI more financially feasible.
Even after the big rally this year, Alphabet is still reasonably priced. Shares trade for 28 times trailing-12-month earnings per share (EPS), but that drops to just 20 times EPS based on Wall Street analysts' expectations for 2024 as Alphabet continues to grow and laps depressed financial results from the bear market. If you're looking for a top company that will benefit from a new computing era in the decade ahead, this tech giant is still best in class.
