There's no question Tesla (TSLA +3.89%) has been a great investment over the past five years as it built its leading electric vehicle (EV) business. The stock still has the potential to be a great investment from here over the long term.
But there's another EV name that could follow a similar trajectory in coming years as Tesla has over the last half-decade. For investors looking for faster growth, Rivian (RIVN 0.98%) may be the right EV name to look at right now.
Following a parallel path
One only has to look at Tesla's growth history to see some similarities -- and interesting differences -- to Rivian's current business. Prior to Tesla launching its higher-volume Model 3 offering, it delivered about 75,000 Model X and Model S vehicles in 2016. Investors valued Tesla with a market cap of around $30 billion at the end of 2016. Tesla then increased its Model X and S sales by 33% year over year in 2017 to more than 100,000 units.
Today, Rivian also offers two EV models to consumers, along with an electric delivery van for commercial buyers. As it has ramped up production, Rivian now projects it will make 54,000 EVs this year. The company raised that guidance after it produced its quarterly record of more than 16,000 vehicles in the third quarter. Based on that run rate, it's not unreasonable to think Rivian could hit the 75,000 mark in 2024. Yet at its recent share price, Rivian's market cap is currently less than $16 billion.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
So, based on that simple math alone, should we expect Rivian stock to double over the next year? Of course not. But here are some things that could help make that happen.
Next-gen vehicles
Rivian has differentiated itself from EV leader Tesla and other EV start-ups with its initial product mix. There is clearly a market for its high-end electric pickup truck and SUV models. Additionally, Rivian has a 100,000 order from Amazon for electric delivery vans that it plans to fill over a multiyear period. Rivian also recently said it now has the ability to open up sales of those commercial vans to other companies.
Now, it is well positioned to take the next step toward a lower-priced, higher-volume offering. The company will break ground in the coming months to construct a new manufacturing plant in Georgia. It ended the third quarter with about $9 billion in cash and the equivalent available funds. It also raised another $1.6 billion from a green convertible senior notes offering after the end of the quarter. That will help to pay for the new plant and bolster its balance sheet. Rivian has also secured what appear to be generous tax incentives for the project from the state and county in Georgia.
The plant will have an annual capacity of 400,000 units when complete, and Rivian plans to use that capacity to offer its next-generation vehicle platform. Rivian expects to offer technology and product enhancements with the R2 platform. The company has also said it will launch a lower-priced vehicle for more of a mass consumer market made on the R2 platform at the Georgia plant.
Risks to consider
There are plenty of risks involved with an investment in Rivian, however. Its balance sheet needs to have enough to carry it to when it becomes cash-flow-positive. That means its capital spending must remain under control at the same time it works to get the new plant built and running. That is no small task. Its R2 platform products must also gain interest and demand from EV buyers.
Elon Musk famously said that Tesla was within about a month of going bankrupt as it worked to ramp up its Model 3 production and sales. But once it cleared those early hurdles, the stock surged, and Tesla now has a valuation of about $750 billion.
Rivian's valuation can similarly surge if it clears its own early hurdles. That's a big "if," but the stock would likely have much more short-term upside than Tesla stock should it succeed. That doesn't necessarily make Tesla a bad long-term investment. However, aggressive investors can bet on Rivian now and could gain more upside as the company moves its operations to the next level. Just don't forget that "aggressive" means the potential for more downside exists as well.
