While just about every top cryptocurrency has seen its value rise this year, there's one clear leader taking the market higher right now: Bitcoin (BTC -1.88%). The price of Bitcoin has more than doubled this year, and now sits at just below $38,000. As a result, Bitcoin now accounts for nearly 52% of the value of the entire crypto market.
Even with this year's rally, though, Bitcoin is still significantly below its all-time high of $69,000. Moreover, there are two important catalysts for Bitcoin heading into 2024 that could send the price higher. Let's take a closer look.
Support for Bitcoin from institutional investors
Remember when Wall Street banks scoffed at the idea of crypto as an asset class, or when large institutional investors avoided Bitcoin like the plague? Those days are long gone, and one of the dominant themes this year has been just how much demand for Bitcoin is now coming from institutional investors.
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The easiest place to see this dynamic at work is with the imminent approval of the first-ever spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) for the U.S. market. As soon as BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, filed its spot Bitcoin ETF application with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) back in June, the floodgates seemed to open. All of a sudden, other institutional investors began to file their own applications, and the price of Bitcoin began to surge. The conventional thinking now is that official approval from the SEC could come as early as the first quarter of 2024.
If everything goes according to plan, this approval could lead to a huge influx of new money into Bitcoin. By some estimates, as much as $50 billion in new liquidity could be coming to Bitcoin. It's hard to predict exactly what the ultimate impact will be on the price of Bitcoin, but one model now calls for a 4% increase in price for every $1 billion that flows into Bitcoin. Thus, if $50 billion really does get unlocked, we could be looking at Bitcoin doubling, or even tripling, in value.
The Bitcoin halving
One of the most anticipated events in the crypto industry next year will be the Bitcoin halving, now scheduled for April 2024. This event, which takes place only once every four years, results in the reward paid out to Bitcoin miners being cut in half. This might sound like a highly technical event of interest only to Bitcoin miners, but the three previous Bitcoin halving events (in 2012, 2016, and 2020) have all corresponded with huge new bull market rallies for Bitcoin.
In the last halving cycle, for example, Bitcoin eventually went on to reach its all-time high of $69,000. So, as you might have guessed by now, just about everyone is expecting Bitcoin to go on another epic run in 2024. For example, crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital analyzed the three previous Bitcoin halving cycles, and predicted that Bitcoin might eventually trade as high as $149,000 after the next halving. And Standard Chartered Bank is now predicting Bitcoin to surge through the $100,000 level next year.
Just keep in mind, though, that past performance is no guarantee of future results, and that's especially true with crypto. While Bitcoin has a longer track record than any other cryptocurrency, it is still relatively short compared to that of traditional assets.
Moreover, there's reason to think that the impact of each new Bitcoin halving should become less significant over time. When the first Bitcoin halving took place, there were only 10 million Bitcoins in existence. In 2024, there will be approximately 20 million Bitcoins in existence. Given that the maximum lifetime supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, we've almost reached a point where Bitcoin miners have mined all the Bitcoin that will ever be mined. Thus, basic mathematics suggests that the impact of any halving should decline over time.
But what about the $38,000 price tag?
Whatever you do, don't be put off by the current $38,000 price tag for Bitcoin. Many people assume -- wrongly -- that you need to buy an entire Bitcoin, and conclude that they'll never afford Bitcoin in their lifetime. But, remember, this is crypto, and the rules are different. Just as $1 can be divided into 100 units (i.e. cents), 1 Bitcoin can be divided into 100 million units (called Satoshis, for Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin). This makes it very easy to buy small fractional units of Bitcoin.
In fact, on many crypto trading platforms, you can get started with Bitcoin for just $1. So there's no excuse for not investing in Bitcoin this December. If you're willing to accept the inevitable volatility of the crypto market, then investing in Bitcoin now could end up being a fantastic long-term idea.
