Automotive investors have been caught up in the whirlwind of electric vehicles (EV) and potentially self-driving vehicles for some time. To be fair, it looks to be a very likely future, at least at some point. That bodes well for pure EV players such as Rivian (RIVN +0.28%), which has made a name for its high-quality R1T and R1S vehicles.
But recently, the chairman of a major global automaker had something to say, and it could scare already-skittish EV investors. Here are the details.
Enter Akio Toyoda
To add some context to the remarks by Akio Toyoda, chairman and former CEO of Toyota Motor Corp., his company has been facing pressure for being left behind in the race toward electrification. Toyota, one of the world's largest automakers, has been slower to transition to EVs compared to major competitors that have multibillion-dollar plans for factories and lists of upcoming EV launches.
In his key points in a company presentation, he said he believes that EVs will account for only 30% market share, no matter how much progress battery electric vehicles make. Toyoda added that the rest of the pie will be divided among hybrid electric vehicles, fuel-cell electric vehicles, and hydrogen engines, with combustion-engine cars definitely remaining.
The comments back up Toyota's approach in transitioning to EVs. The company has opted to pioneer hybrid vehicles and hydrogen technology, and has announced a strategy to develop new combustion engines as well.
What happens to Rivian?
If Toyota is right, that would seriously shrink the potential pie for Rivian, which is currently a pure-EV company focused on trucks and SUVs. But even in the worst-case scenario, if Rivian's R2 vehicles are as well received as its R1 vehicles, demand will exist in a very robust U.S. truck and SUV market.
But the counterargument is that Toyota is falling behind, and that EVs will explode well beyond 30% market share. Already Norway has reached 82.4% EV market share in 2023. Sweden, the Netherlands, and China have hit 32%, 24%, and 24%, respectively.
And while the U.S. has slowed its EV growth, its 7.6% EV market share could quickly follow a similar trajectory as China, which was only at 6% EV market share as recently as 2020 before quadrupling by 2023.
According to a forecast from BloombergNEF, EVs will account for 75% of new car sales and 44% of passenger vehicles on the road by 2040.
NASDAQ: RIVN
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The road ahead
Sure, the comments from Toyoda might catch EV investors off guard, especially for Rivian investors who are watching the pure EV company burn cash at a rapid rate waiting for mass adoption to gain traction.
But Toyoda's comments should be taken with a grain of salt, and are in defense of a company that has been reluctant to go all-in on EVs. It's also possible that in the future, Rivian adapts and unleashes a hybrid platform, quickly opening the doors to a new segment of opportunity.
Rivian has so far done the hard part, which is to prove it can accelerate production of high-quality vehicles. And for now, that's exactly what investors should focus on as the company drives toward its new platform of vehicles in 2026.
