Weight-loss and diabetes drugs have been transforming the healthcare industry over the past few years. Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists such as Wegovy and Ozempic have been growing in popularity as they help people shed pounds without the need for a complex weight-loss plan.
WW International (WW 10.06%), formerly known as Weight Watchers, has also jumped on the bandwagon. Last year, the company launched a program designed for GLP-1 drug users, which it hopes could generate some much-needed growth for its business. Can that help transform its operations and make this beaten-down stock become a good buy right now?
Growth has been a problem for WW International
On Feb. 28, WW International posted its fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings -- they weren't great. The company's revenue totaled $206.0 million, down 7.6% year over year. Subscription revenue, which makes up the bulk of its top line, came in at $196.1 million with a 2.4% decline.
What's most concerning is this declining revenue isn't anything new, and as troubling as it looks, it has actually improved lately.
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The company's guidance isn't all that encouraging
Although WW International has launched the new weight-loss program aimed at GLP-1 users to help them maintain healthy eating habits, management isn't expecting a huge influx of revenue, at least not anytime soon. For the current year, guidance calls for revenue to come within a range of $830 million to $860 million (down 5% at the midpoint).
This, however, includes a $55 million headwind as a result of the company winding down its consumer products business. Excluding that amount, revenue could climb slightly from 2023, but even the high end of its outlook would mark a decline from two years ago.
The one bright spot is that, at least for 2024, the company is expecting to post an operating profit between $100 million and $110 million, which is a big improvement from this past year when it reported operating income of just $22.3 million.
Oprah Winfrey selling shares isn't going to inspire much confidence, either
To make matters worse, one of WW International's most popular shareholders, Oprah Winfrey, also recently announced she is going to step down from the company's Board of Directors. She is also going to donate all her shares as she effectively transitions away from the business. She will still, however, be available as an advisor to CEO Sima Sistani.
Losing Winfrey was a big blow for WW International, and it resulted in another sell-off for the already struggling stock. Over the past three years, shares of WW International are down over 90%, and in 2024 alone, they have plummeted 67%.
WW International isn't a stock worth taking a chance on
WW International's pivot to a GLP-1-focused weight-loss program carries a huge burden as the solution to the company's growth problems. Management isn't expecting a huge uptick in revenue due to the new program this year, which suggests the challenges of growing its top line aren't going away in the near future.
Investors shouldn't expect a massive turnaround for the business as GLP-1 users who are able to lose significant weight from the medication alone may not see enough of an incentive to join a weight-loss program with WW International. Unless there is a drastic change in the outlook for WW International's business, investors are better off sitting on the sidelines as there are superior growth stocks out there to consider right now.
