For most stocks, a 25% cut in an analyst's target price following an earnings release would send investors scrambling for the exit door. That wasn't the case with Bluebird Bio (BLUE +0.00%), however.
The clinical-stage biotech saw a decent price rise after those two events in late March. What helped was that, despite the cut, said analyst believes the shares are on track to double in price and then some.
The price target is cut. However...
That prognosticator is Wells Fargo's Yanan Zhu, who now feels Bluebird Bio stock will rise to $3 per share over the next 12 months. That's down from the former target of $4, yet it's 138% higher than the stock's current price. Interestingly, Zhu maintained only an equal weight (i.e., hold) recommendation on the shares.
Analysts often adjust estimates on publicly traded companies after those entities report earnings. Zhu's price target cut came one day after the biotech reported its fourth-quarter and full-year results.
These showed that net revenue for the entirety of 2023 was $29.5 million, well up from the $3.6 million the previous year. Bluebird attributed this to the widening revenue streams of two of its three commercialized gene therapies, cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy (CALD; a neurological disorder) treatment Skysona, and beta-thalassemia (TDT) drug Zynteglo. The company didn't disclose its bottom-line result in the earnings report.
NASDAQ: BLUE
Key Data Points
High risk, even for a biotech
While Bluebird Bio has made notable leaps in progress with its therapies over the years, it has also suffered notable setbacks -- the prime example being its withdrawal of both Zynteglo and Skysona from the European market in 2021.
The patient populations for the afflictions the pair treats are small. Both are also extremely expensive. The company's most recently FDA-approved gene therapy -- sickle cell disease medication Lyfgenia -- addresses a more common affliction. Yet it also faces potentially strong competition from CRISPR Therapeutics' and Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Casgevy, which won an FDA nod recently.
Given all that, Bluebird feels like a very risky stock to me. I'm not entirely convinced it can double in price, as Zhu believes.
