Stimulus Update: The One Number That Might Indicate if a Stimulus Check Is on the Way

It's an important data point to watch out for.

U.S. consumers have pretty much spent all of 2022 grappling with rampant inflation. And over the past 12 months, many people have depleted their savings accounts and racked up scores of credit card debt to cope with higher living costs.

What's made the past year even more difficult is that as inflation has surged, there's been no federal stimulus aid to fall back on (though some states have issued their own payments to residents). The last round of federal stimulus checks to hit Americans' bank accounts got approved in March of 2021, before inflation levels really started to rise.

But there's a reason the federal government hasn't issued more stimulus checks this year -- it hasn't needed to. And while that could change in 2023, it will hinge largely on one key number.

What does the jobless rate look like?

In March of 2021, the national unemployment rate was 6%. Of course, lawmakers approved a round of stimulus aid via the American Rescue Plan before that data was broadly released, but the jobless rate in February of 2021 was a notch higher at 6.2%.

By comparison, in February of 2020, right before the pandemic took hold, the unemployment rate was 3.5%. And for context, between February of 2019 and February of 2020, the national jobless rate ranged from 3.8% to 3.5%. Once the pandemic hit, the unemployment rate soared to 14.7% in April of 2020 before gradually creeping back downward.

When lawmakers made the decision to issue stimulus checks in March of 2021, the jobless rate was almost twice as high as it was right before the pandemic. But this year, unemployment has been low.

In January of 2022, unemployment sat at 4%. In July of 2022, it reached 3.5% -- the same level as February of 2020, right before the pandemic. And in November of 2022, the jobless rate crept upward very mildly, reaching 3.7%.

All told, jobs have been plentiful this entire year. In fact, for added context, 2022's jobless levels are pretty much the lowest on record over the past 20 years. And so it's easy to see why lawmakers passed on offering up stimulus aid.

Now the unemployment situation could change in 2023 -- especially if a recession strikes. But when it comes to stimulus aid, we're going to need to see a pretty notable uptick in joblessness for lawmakers to justify another round of checks. And if the unemployment rate stays close to where it's been in 2022, we can pretty much write off the idea of another federal windfall.

Don't assume a stimulus is on the way

There's reason to believe that economic conditions will, in fact, worsen in 2023. And we could see unemployment levels start to rise. But unless we see a large jump in the national jobless rate, lawmakers will probably hold off on issuing stimulus funds.

The last round of federal stimulus aid was met with loads of criticism. And since many have blamed this year's inflation woes on last year's stimulus policies, if anything, lawmakers will most probably err on the side of being conservative when it comes to sending out money. And so while there's a chance that another stimulus check could be on the way in 2023, we'll need to pay close attention to the national unemployment rate to see how likely that is.