If there's one lesson to be learned from the recent volatility in the stock market, it's the importance of focusing on the long term. While the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index is down about 13.9% so far in 2022, it's still holding on to a gain of 423% over the last decade.
In fact, the steep declines in many individual stocks could be an opportunity to buy into long-term growth stories at a discount for the decade ahead. Upstart Holdings (UPST -1.64%) and Bill.com Holdings (BILL 3.14%) are two fintechs with unique business models and soaring growth rates, making them prime candidates.
Over the next 10 years, both stocks have the potential to deliver fivefold returns, especially if you buy them now while their stock is selling at a steep discount to levels reached in late 2021.
The case for Upstart
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a next-generation technology that promises to replace manual human input in many complex tasks. In this case, Upstart has developed an AI algorithm to assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers, and it uses that information to originate loans for its banking partners.
Banks pay Upstart a fee for the service, and it's proving to be a far more effective tool than the decades-old FICO credit scoring system from Fair Isaac. While FICO takes into account a handful of metrics when assessing borrowers, Upstart can measure 1,600 data points and deliver a decision instantly 70% of the time. It would likely take a human assessor days or even weeks to arrive at the same result, so Upstart offers a better experience for both the customer and the lender.
The company got its start by originating unsecured personal loans, which is a $96 billion annual market. But it recently expanded into auto loan originations, which is about seven times that size. The Upstart Auto Retail sales and origination platform now serves over 410 car dealerships across the U.S., and it's growing rapidly.
Upstart would have to increase its revenue by 18% each year to turn a $200,000 investment into $1 million by 2032, assuming its price-to-sales multiple remains constant.
Metric | 2017 | 2021 | CAGR |
---|---|---|---|
Revenue |
$57 million |
$849 million |
96% |
Earnings (loss) per share |
($0.56) |
$2.37 |
N/A |
Upstart is crushing the 18% growth mark, nearly doubling its revenue every year since 2017. On top of that, it's now a profitable company, making it far more attractive as an investment than most tech companies.
In its 2021 presentation, Upstart highlighted new potential markets like small-business lending and mortgages, which could send its annual opportunity into the trillions of dollars. Put simply, the company's best growth might still be ahead, and with its stock down 79.8% from its all-time high, it's a great time to add it to your portfolio.
The case for Bill.com
Business owners are spotlighted when it comes to software services that make monotonous administrative tasks less burdensome. Bill.com has grown to become a leading provider, thanks to its flagship accounts-payable platform helping to reduce messy paper trails. Its digital inbox technology centralizes incoming invoices so they don't get lost in the shuffle of everyday operations.
Bill.com allows business owners to pay those invoices with one click, and it also integrates with top accounting software so those transactions get logged into the books automatically. In 2021, the company acquired two other businesses to aid its expansion into new verticals. It now owns Invoice2go, which helps manage accounts receivable, and Divvy, a budgeting and expense management software.
Now, Bill.com is a go-to provider for all things related to business payments, and it serves 373,500 customers.
Metric | Fiscal 2018 | Fiscal 2022 (Guidance) | CAGR |
---|---|---|---|
Revenue |
$64 million |
$600 million |
74% |
In the last few years, Bill.com's revenue growth has far exceeded the 18% it needs for its stock to grow fivefold over the next decade, assuming its stock valuation metrics remain where they are today. But there's even a possibility growth could accelerate.
The company has processed $181 billion in payment volume over the last 12 months, but it places its domestic opportunity at $25 trillion annually -- and a whopping $125 trillion globally. That leaves a significant runway, and since Bill.com has bolted-on two key acquisitions, it has a wider path to greater market share.
The company also operates in a pool of 70 million global business customers. Keep in mind that it hasn't even cracked its first million yet, so there's significant room for expansion.
Bill.com should kick into high gear over the next few years as it fine-tunes its new multifaceted business model. And since its stock has dipped 43.5% from its all-time high amid the tech sell-off, now might be the time to get involved.