What happened
Shares of the messenger RNA (mRNA) specialist Moderna (MRNA 0.68%) closed Tuesday's trading session down by a noteworthy 6.1% on higher-than-normal volume.
What caused investors to move to the sidelines today? The Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the day that U.S. health authorities plan to change their recommendation for COVID-19 booster shots to a once-a-year format for otherwise healthy individuals.
So what
This latest recommendation comes on the back of a steady decline in the number of new coronavirus cases worldwide over the past several weeks, along with the U.S. government's recent decision to end public financial support for both COVID-19 vaccines and treatments.
What does this all mean to Moderna? As a once-yearly shot, Moderna's mega-blockbuster Spikevax vaccine will undoubtedly face a far less lucrative commercial landscape than it has over the prior two years. Under a worst-case scenario, this market may even shrink into a sub-$20 billion space as soon as 2024.
Previously, industry insiders were expecting Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Novavax to battle over a global coronavirus vaccine market valued at approximately $24 billion a year in 2024. That prediction now seems overly optimistic. The annual flu shot market, after all, is only valued at a little over $5 billion right now.
Now what
Is Moderna's stock worth buying on this pullback? This news obviously isn't great for Moderna's outlook over the next two to four years. As a result, this large-cap biotech stock doesn't exactly come across as a screaming buy right now.
