Block (SQ 2.32%) stock has always seemed a little weird to me -- even before it changed its name from "Square," to "Block," but forgot to tell its ticker symbol.
One of the hottest stocks of the late 2010s, shares of this early fintech stock really took off during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020-21 as investors warmed to its contactless payment technology. The weird thing, though, is that 2020 was the year after Block's profits had already peaked, and its earnings began to decline -- ultimately hitting a nadir of $520 million in losses in 2022.
But things may be starting to turn around for Block. Last year, the company reported positive profits again. And now, one analyst is predicting that Block stock could rocket 33% this year. According to Argus Research, Block stock could soon return to a $100 share price not seen since the darkest days of the pandemic.
Is Block stock a buy?
Indeed, Block stock is already rising after the company missed on earnings but promising investors that in 2024, it will (1) grow its gross profits by 15% in comparison to 2023, (2) achieve a 13% "adjusted" operating profit margin, and (3) report "adjusted EBITDA" equal to 30% of its revenue.
It's no surprise that investors are bidding the stock up. Block hasn't reported positive operating profit margins in two years. And even when it was profitable, the company has never reported an operating profit margin much higher than 1%. The prospect of Block suddenly jumping into the teens (and better) for profit margin certainly sounds bullish, and it's a key reason for Argus's Monday upgrade.
Of course, most of the numbers that Block is promising to hit are "adjusted" -- not calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). It's also worth pointing out that consensus estimates only have Block earning about $1.23 per share this year. If Block stock ends up costing $100 a share, that would make for a P/E of ... 81 times current earnings, and more than 50 times earnings next year.
Seems pretty pricey to me. I'll pass.
