What happened
Shares of electric truck maker Rivian Automotive (RIVN 3.76%) jumped 5% through 10:25 a.m. ET on Tuesday after investment banker Baird reiterated its outperform rating on the stock this morning.
More than just a reiteration, Baird even issued a kind of upgrade, calling the already-recommended electric vehicle (EV) stock a "bullish fresh pick," StreetInsider.com reported this morning.
So what
As analyst Ben Kallo explained, Rivian no longer gives investors detailed updates on its preorders, but management has still indicated that demand for the company's R1S electric SUV remains "robust," with waiting periods to obtain one stretching out as far as a year. R1T electric truck demand is a bit less than that, but still seems strong -- and overall, Rivian expects to enjoy demand exceeding its ability to supply it throughout 2024.
These statements contradict investor expectations for slowing demand, and open up the possibility, says Kallo, that Rivian's deliveries will beat consensus forecasts in the third quarter, creating "a near-term catalyst" that could drive the stock higher.
Now what
How long will investors have to wait to learn if Baird is right about this? Well, Q3 earnings aren't due out until Nov. 7. (Analysts are forecasting a $1.32-per-share loss on sales of $1.3 billion). However, Rivian generally issues an update on the status of its production numbers, and its delivery numbers, about one month prior to reporting earnings -- so Baird's predicted "near-term catalyst" could be nearer-term than you think.
Indeed, investors can expect to get a sneak peek at Rivian's results as soon as early October -- perhaps as little as two weeks from now. And the better Rivian's delivery numbers look, the more likely it will be that Rivian will beat on earnings when that news comes out in November.
