Everyone's worked up over bank stocks. After the rapid collapse of some sizable banking institutions this spring, investors want no part of lenders and financial institutions. This has continued into the Q3 earnings season. The S&P Regional Banking ETF slumped around 50% from highs earlier this year. For reference, the S&P 500 is only off 13.7% from its highs.
Pessimism surrounds bank stocks right now. It looks like investors are concerned about three things: exposure to commercial real estate, long-term loans with low interest rates, and skittish depositors. But not every bank is facing these pressures, creating some buying opportunities for contrarian investors.
As legendary investor Charlie Munger says: "invert, always invert." Here are three relatively safe banking stocks where you should consider buying the dip.
1. American Express: A top-notch credit card brand
My first pick easily evades the three big current concerns with bank stocks. American Express (AXP -0.62%) is one of the oldest consumer lending institutions in the United States, and it has built itself into the premier credit card brand in the country. With over a trillion dollars flowing through its payment network and a balance sheet with high-quality loans from wealthy spenders, there's very little reason to be concerned about credit risks with American Express.
The company has zero exposure to commercial real estate, with the vast majority of its assets in credit card loans. It also has minimal exposure to the interest rate mismatch that afflicts a lot of banks at the moment. What does this mean? Banks/lenders made some long-term loans -- especially in real estate -- during the pandemic period with extremely low interest rates. With the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark rate at the fastest pace in history, the cost of funds for banks has risen dramatically, while these loans continue to earn the same measly levels. Credit card loans are very short-term, meaning they reprice with the prevailing interest rate rather quickly.
Investors shouldn't be concerned about American Express losing customers/depositors, either. With such a strong brand, American Express retains its customers for long periods, sometimes decades. And it keeps adding millions of new customers every quarter. In Q3, American Express had 2.9 million net new cards acquired to its network, which will help it steadily grow in the years to come. At a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4, the stock looks rather cheap too.
2. Ally Financial: Repricing automotive loans
An even cheaper bank stock is Ally Financial (ALLY 0.41%). The online consumer bank currently trades at a P/E below 7. Investors have soured on the bank stock due to the rising interest rates it has to pay depositors. Ally makes money through automotive loans, which were made at ultra-low rates during the pandemic period. Now, with interest rates up, it is sitting on some older loans that are locked at these lower rates. This is hurting the spread it earns on the money it earns from loans versus what it pays to depositors, known as net interest margin (NIM).
The good news is that it should only take Ally a year or two to reprice its loans to match what it is paying depositors. Automotive loans are typically much shorter duration than real estate loans, giving Ally a lot more flexibility with its banking operations. Ally also has a ton of liquidity to weather an economic downturn or cyclicality within the automotive sector. It has $64 billion in liquidity, or more than 5x its uninsured deposit base. There is minimal concern around deposit flight, with over 90% of Ally's deposits insured by the FDIC. Even with the banking crisis this spring, Ally continued to grow its depositors, adding tens of thousands of new customers every quarter.
Ally looks to have a rock-solid balance sheet that is facing some headwinds but should normalize within the next few years. With the P/E so cheap, the stock looks like a great bet at these prices.
AXP PE Ratio data by YCharts
3. Bank of America: too big to fail
Lastly, it looks like Bank of America (BAC -0.21%) could be a low-risk banking pick to scoop up at a discount. Bank of America is one of the "too big to fail" banks -- it has downside protection, as the government is likely to intervene if the company hits a rough patch. With over $1.9 trillion in deposits and tons of business lines within financial services, the company is well diversified and should continue to grow along with the U.S. economy. Even if it has some underwater loans in the real estate sector (a bank of this size has its fingers everywhere), investors have little to worry about and it remains a small portion of the balance sheet.
Bank of America's depositors remain rock solid and don't look to be headed anywhere else anytime soon. With a P/E of 7.3 -- a five-year low -- and the stock trading at a price-to-book value (P/B) of just 0.8, shares look mighty cheap at these levels. A P/B below 1 means that investors can buy a bank for below the carrying value of its balance sheet, which should give investors a nice margin of safety here.
There's a reason Warren Buffett owns a sizable chunk of Bank of America. In fact, the Oracle of Omaha (and perhaps the best bank investor ever) owns all three of these banking stocks. Investors would be wise to follow him and buy some shares too.
