Jay Yao

Jay Yao

TMFJay22

I am a value investor looking for fundamental catalysts that can unlock value, or for stocks that have a high probability of undergoing favorable mean reversion. Ideally these stocks have wide moats, great businesses, and solid management that are discounted due to market irrationality or temporary negative events.

Recent articles

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Green Shoots in the Energy Market Suggest Chevron is a Buy

Aside from continuing robust demand growth, various green shoots have powered the crude rally in recent months. Here are three of them.


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The No. 1 Metric to Look Out for as Crude Prices Rise

Although many metrics show green shoots in the energy market, this indicator is arguably more important than anything else, and it could decide whether the present rally will continue.


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Here's What Will Happen to Chevron If Venezuela Slides Into Chaos

Economic conditions in Venezuela continue to deteriorate, and the potential for significant supply disruption continues to rise. If Venezuela slides into chaos, here's how Chevron will be affected.


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3 Reasons Chevron Won't Do Any Share Repurchases During the Next Year

Although crude has nearly doubled from its February lows and the industry outlook is unquestionably brighter, Chevron is unlikely to repurchase its stock during the next year. Here are three reasons why.


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Can This Troubled LNG Project Still Deliver for Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Royal Dutch Shell?

LNG spot prices have been atrocious, and the Gorgon is billions of dollars over budget and several years late. Can the megaproject still deliver value for shareholders?

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Here's How Nigeria's Militant Trouble Affects Chevron

Militants recently attacked Chevron's Nigerian operations twice in one week. Here's how the attacks affect Chevron's financials.


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3 Reasons Chevron Probably Won't Pursue a Major Acquisition

Although energy fundamentals have improved and many analysts think oil prices will go higher next year, Chevron is unlikely to make an acquisition. Here are three reasons why.


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Does Freeport-McMoRan's Emphasis on Oil and Gas Make It a Good Buy?

After originally planning to sell or divest the majority of those assets, management has changed its mind. Is keeping the oil and gas assets the right choice, and does that make Freeport-McMoRan a good buy?


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How Did the Canadian Wildfires Affect Chevron's Operations?

Canada recently experienced one of its worst wildfires in history, knocking out 1 million to 1.6 million barrels of crude production per day. Here's how the wildfire affects Chevron's financials.


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3 Things Chevron Management Really Wants You to Know

Although first-quarter earnings were disappointing, Chevron management largely reassured investors on the company's near-term outlook. Here are three key takeaways from the conference call.

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4 Takeaways From Chevron's Q1 Earnings

Although Chevron reported a challenging first quarter and added billions of dollars in additional debt, the worst is likely over for the company. Here are four key takeaways.


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Better Buy Now: Chevron or ExxonMobil?

Between the top two blue chips in the energy sector, which company is the better buy under current conditions?


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How Will This New $25 Billion Rule Affect Chevron and Its Deepwater Prospects?

Although new offshore regulations are designed to increase safety, they may cost the industry tens of billions of dollars. How will the regulations affect Chevron?


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3 Reasons Chevron Is Committed to the Permian Basin

Although Chevron holds vast acreage over many promising basins and reservoirs, nowhere more is the company excited than in the Permian. Here are three reasons why.


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Will Chevron Raise Its Dividend in 2016?

Chevron has raised its annual dividend for 28 straight years. With crude prices below $50 per barrel, will the company raise its payout again in 2016?

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Better Buy Now: Kinder Morgan or Enterprise Products Partners?

Which of the two midstream giants is a better buy?


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How Chevron Plans to Use UAVs and AI to Deliver Big Profits

Unmanned aerial vehicles and artificial intelligence currently play a minor but growing role in Chevron's operations. Here's how the two emerging technologies fit in Chevron's future.


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The Rockefeller Family Fund Thinks Investing in Oil Is a Mistake. Is It Right?

The Rockefeller Family fund recently announced its intention to divest from fossil fuels. Why does the Rockefeller fund want to divest, and is there an investment case for fossil fuel stocks for buy-and-hold investors?


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This Potential Asset Sale Reflects Chevron's Pragmatic Approach to Renewables

Here's how the potential sale of the company's Asian geothermal assets affects Chevron and illustrates the company's renewable-energy strategy.


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3 Reasons to Believe PotashCorp Will Be a Great Long-Term Holding

Here's why PotashCorp shares still belong in a diversified long-term portfolio.