Predicting where any company will be in one year is always guesswork at best, but it's become increasingly difficult amid President Donald Trump's tariff rollout. The tech sector has felt the influx of uncertainty, sending the Nasdaq Composite tumbling since tariffs were announced.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR 2.75%) stock initially fell along with so many other stocks on concerns about how tariffs might affect operations, but it has since rebounded and is bucking the larger market's downward trend. Palantir's stock is up nearly 35% since the beginning of the year, compared to the Nasdaq's 13% decline.
But where will Palantir stock be one year from now, given the ongoing market uncertainty, tariff concerns, and a growing fear of a potential economic slowdown? Here's what could happen.
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Palantir is growing quickly
To better gauge Palantir's potential for the year ahead, it can help to look back and study its momentum from the previous year. Palantir's trajectory over that time looks quite promising. The company ended 2024 with revenue of nearly $2.9 billion, a 29% jump from the previous year. The growth was mainly fueled by Palantir's U.S. revenue, which rose 38% to $1.9 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose 64% to $0.41, and Palantir ended the year with $1.25 billion in free cash flow -- up from $731 million in 2023.
Palantir also finalized an impressive amount of new deals in its fourth quarter, closing 129 deals worth at least $1 million, 58 deals of at least $5 million, and 32 deals of at least $10 million. Palantir's Chief Revenue Officer, Ryan Taylor, said, "We accelerated through the end of the year, and we remained full throttle."
Momentum indeed.
Where Palantir could be in one year
Unsurprisingly, Palantir's management issued strong guidance for 2025, including a sales forecast that expects 29% growth to $3.75 billion and adjusted free cash flow growth of 28% to $1.6 billion. Both of those figures are at the midpoint of guidance.
NASDAQ: PLTR
Key Data Points
President Trump's chaotic tariff rollout has rattled many companies, and some have been forced to adjust their expectations for the upcoming year. That's understandable, given all the uncertainty. But Palantir may be able to ride out this uncertainty better than most.
Palantir is a software-based artificial intelligence (AI) company, making it less likely to feel adverse effects from the various tariffs being enacted or threatened. It also counts the U.S. government as a key customer -- accounting for 43% of all 2024 revenue -- which may help it ride out a potential economic slowdown, if one arises. Not only that, but Palantir is also positioning its AI data analytics software tools to serve as potential help for companies looking to navigate tariff uncertainty and find new efficiencies.
Palantir isn't completely immune to an economic slowdown, of course, but the fact that its business is software-based and that the U.S. government has been eager to tap into Palantir's AI services could help shield the company from some negative economic impacts.
Palantir stock's one glaring problem
While Palantir could likely continue growing over the next year, the stock's sky-high valuation is a potential headwind. Palantir's stock has a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 172, which is very expensive by any measure.
With the stock trading at such a premium during an uncertain time in the market, it's hard to justify paying the high price. Sure, Palantir could likely continue growing over the next year. But if tariffs do spark a slowdown, the market could get very jittery, and Palantir's stock could fall along with it.
Considering its current premium, it might be better to hold off from buying Palantir right now to see if a better buying opportunity opens up as more economic and market uncertainty unfolds.
