Historically, September has been one of the toughest months for the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.71%). This year, September could be a particularly volatile month for Space Exploration Technology (SPCX -1.02%), as the stock price fights to stay above its $135 initial public offering pricing.
This month, there are three challenges SpaceX stock will face. If it can get through it, the stock's longer-term outlook looks brighter. Here are the three challenges and the potential.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Negative returns in September
The first challenge for the SpaceX stock price is that September is just a historically tough time for the broader markets. From 1928 through 2023, the S&P 500 has averaged a negative return during September (down 1.17%). Looking more recently, from 2022 to 2025, the S&P 500 has been profitable only 50% of the time, essentially a coin flip:
- September 2022: -9.3%
- September 2023: -4.8%
- September 2024: +2%
- September 2025: +3.5%
And the average return for September from those four years is negative 2.1%. That's not to say it's a guarantee that SpaceX stock will end September down, but history suggests it's a volatile time, and shareholders should be prepared for price swings.
2. Interest rate increase likely
The second challenge the SpaceX stock price may face is the growing likelihood of an interest rate hike in September. As of Aug. 28, the chance of a rate hike was 57%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Rate hikes can hit tech stocks hard, as investors may rotate out of what are perceived as riskier stocks in favor of more income-generating assets that benefit from the hikes. With higher rates, investors may also worry about higher borrowing costs for companies and an economic slowdown, which could prompt share sales.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
3. More insider shares will unlock
SpaceX IPO'd earlier this year, but only a portion of its shares were made publicly available. Rules were put in place to allow insiders to sell their shares at staggered time intervals following the IPO to better control potential share price volatility. More than 700 million shares (about 5.3% of all shares) will be unlocked and available for sale in September. An additional 650 million shares (4.9%) will unlock in October.
Shares were already unlocked in August, which has so far had minimal impact on the SpaceX stock price. If anything, the stock price actually climbed the day following the unlocking periods. Still, shares flooding the market always create the potential for the stock price to sink lower.
Looking beyond this September to 2027
Seasonality can help with mental preparation, setting the expectation that prices could experience noticeable swings in September. That said, one month alone won't determine the full upside potential of SpaceX's stock price. And while there are several challenges in September, analysts are typically bullish on where SpaceX could trade by September 2027.
Per CNN, of the 40 analysts who rate SpaceX stock, 75% rate it a buy, 18% a hold, and 8% a sell. From that group of analysts, the median one-year price target is $217. The highest price target is $800, while the lowest is $75. But even from the Aug. 28 closing price of $141.50, reaching the median target of $217 would represent a 53.3% gain.
To put that in dollar terms, if someone bought $10,000 worth of SpaceX stock at the Aug. 28 closing price of $141.50, that would give them approximately 70 shares. If the stock price reaches $217 per share, that $10,000 would then be worth around $15,335.
So while September may be a rocky month, a falling stock price could present a buying opportunity for more aggressive, long-term investors who have high conviction in SpaceX.
