Why Vical Will Keep Plunging

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, biopharmaceutical company Vical (VICL) has received a distressing two-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Vical and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Vical facts

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 8% of the 178 members who have rated Vical believe the stock will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Earlier this week, one of those Fools, All-Star zzlangerhans, succinctly summed up the bear case for our community:

Vical has concluded yet again that patients in the phase III trial of Allovectin-7 are living longer than expected, resulting in another lengthy delay before topline data will be released. Naturally, Vical bulls see this as a positive, concluding that it is an indicator that patients are living longer in the treatment arm. That sounds like an old story that I heard earlier this year with [Keryx Pharmaceuticals (KERX)] and perifosine, with an unfortunate outcome for the bulls. I believe I've seen similar outcomes from prolonged phase III trials previously, but I can't remember one where the bull thesis turned out to be correct.

I've seen many phase III clinical trials fail against melanoma. It's a bad cancer to bet against and I won't start with Vical.

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