As more employees bring their own devices to work, employers increasingly need efficient ways to keep all those gadgets secure. To that end, BlackBerry (BBRY +0.37%) has announced its Secure Work Space solution for Apple iOS and Google Android, which separates work apps and data from the employee's personal apps and data in a streamlined manner. Thanks to the multiplatform support, BlackBerry has created a potentially massive opportunity to monetize non-BlackBerry devices.
According to Forrester Research, 200 million employees will bring their own devices to the workplace by 2016. Assuming that's an accurate measure, BlackBerry's addressable market could potentially be as large as 190 million devices, based on its coverage of 95% of smartphones shipped in the first quarter. At $99 per year per device, I wasn't kidding when I said this could be game changing for BlackBerry's business.
Getting real with it
It's unrealistic to say that Secure Work Space will capture 100% of its potential addressable market, generate more than $18.8 billion in service revenue, and that makes the stock a screaming buy today. Based on a potential total addressable market of 190 million devices, here's a more realistic look at how Secure Work Space could be accretive to earnings in 2016:
|
2016 Secure Work Space Capture Rate |
Subscribers (millions) |
Projected EPS Boost ($99 per device) |
Projected EPS Boost ($50 per device) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1% |
1.9 |
$0.31 |
$0.16 |
|
2.5% |
4.8 |
$0.77 |
$0.39 |
|
5% |
9.5 |
$1.54 |
$0.78 |
|
7.5% |
14.3 |
$2.31 |
$1.17 |
|
10% |
19 |
$3.09 |
$1.56 |
|
15% |
28.5 |
$4.63 |
$2.34 |
|
20% |
38 |
$6.17 |
$3.12 |
Source: Author's calculations and BlackBerry. EPS = earnings per share. Projected EPS based on 524.16 million BlackBerry common shares outstanding as of June 24, 2013.
To arrive at projected EPS, I took BlackBerry's full-year 2012 service and software segment's gross profit margin of 86% and applied the same percentage to Secure Work Space's annual projected revenue. With analyst consensus expecting BlackBerry to lose $0.85 cents a share in 2015, it wouldn't be out the question for Secure Work Space's revenue to offset some or all of those losses.
Great positioning
According to Gartner, the enterprise mobile device management industry is undergoing a shift toward "container"-based solutions thanks to bring-your-own-device policies. Luckily, BlackBerry's Secure Work Space solution puts a secure "container" around any sensitive information stored on a device, putting it in an excellent position to benefit. As you can imagine, BlackBerry isn't the only game in town. In fact, there are more than 128 mobile device management vendors, all of which are likely vying to create container-based solutions. Where BlackBerry can stand out from the crowd is with its rock-solid security reputation and its familiarity among IT administrators. If push came to shove, BlackBerry could lower prices to remain competitive and it would likely still benefit the bottom line, assuming BlackBerry's 2012 software and service gross profit margin could be maintained.
Low-hanging fruit?
As exciting as it is for BlackBerry to have a chance to drive subscriber growth from outside its ecosystem, investors shouldn't forget about the company's less-than-stellar smartphone turnaround efforts. Last quarter, only 40% of devices that shipped were of the freshly minted BlackBerry 10 variety, indicating that the company's turnaround efforts haven't thus far been well received. Additionally, the company is bleeding subscribers, which generate profitable revenue streams over their lifetime, putting a greater sense of urgency on the company to improve the outlook and not tap into its $3.1 billion of cash.
Arguably, with expectations solidly planted in the basement, BlackBerry doesn't have to hit a massive home run with Secure Work Space for the stock to be a home-run investment at these levels. A few signs of life could turn things around in a hurry.
