Now more than ever, a comfortable retirement depends on secure, stable investments. Unfortunately, the right stocks for retirement won't just fall into your lap. In this series, I look at 10 measures to show what makes a great retirement-oriented stock.
Europe has been a scary place for investors for quite a while now. But Sanofi (SNY +1.35%) has a business with global scope, and with international diversification, it isn't quite as exposed to struggling European economies as some of its more inwardly focused peers. Still, can Sanofi really thrive in such a tough environment? Below, we'll revisit how Sanofi does on our 10-point scale.
The right stocks for retirees
With decades to go before you need to tap your investments, you can take greater risks, weighing the chance of big losses against the potential for mind-blowing returns. But as retirement approaches, you no longer have the luxury of waiting out a downturn.
Sure, you still want good returns, but you also need to manage your risk and protect yourself against bear markets, which can maul your finances at the worst possible time. The right stocks combine both of these elements in a single investment.
When scrutinizing a stock, retirees should look for:
- Size. Most retirees would rather not take a flyer on unproven businesses. Bigger companies may lack their smaller counterparts' growth potential, but they do offer greater security.
- Consistency. While many investors look for fast-growing companies, conservative investors want to see steady, consistent gains in revenue, free cash flow, and other key metrics. Slow growth won't make headlines, but it will help prevent the kind of ugly surprises that suddenly torpedo a stock's share price.
- Stock stability. Conservative retirement investors prefer investments that move less dramatically than typical stocks, and they particularly want to avoid big losses. These investments will give up some gains during bull markets, but they won't fall as far or as fast during bear markets. Beta measures volatility, but we also want a track record of solid performance as well.
- Valuation. No one can afford to pay too much for a stock, even if its prospects are good. Using normalized earnings multiples helps smooth out one-time effects, giving you a longer-term context.
- Dividends. Most of all, retirees look for stocks that can provide income through dividends. Retirees want healthy payouts now and consistent dividend growth over time -- as long as it doesn't jeopardize the company's financial health.
With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at Sanofi.
|
Factor |
What We Want to See |
Actual |
Pass or Fail? |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Size |
Market cap > $10 billion |
$123 billion |
Pass |
|
Consistency |
Revenue growth > 0% in at least four of past five years |
4 years |
Pass |
|
Free cash flow growth > 0% in at least four of past five years |
3 years |
Fail | |
|
Stock stability |
Beta < 0.9 |
0.37 |
Pass |
|
Worst loss in past five years no greater than 20% |
(27.9%) |
Fail | |
|
Valuation |
Normalized P/E < 18 |
16.85 |
Pass |
|
Dividends |
Current yield > 2% |
3.7% |
Pass |
|
5-year dividend growth > 10% |
8.9% |
Fail | |
|
Streak of dividend increases >= 10 years |
13 years |
Pass | |
|
Payout ratio < 75% |
57.7% |
Pass | |
|
Total score |
7 out of 10 |
Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes.
Since we looked at Sanofi last year, the company dropped a point, as dividend growth fell below the key 10% level. But shareholders haven't been too disappointed, as the stock has soared by more than 30% over the past year.
Sanofi has been quite successful over the years, with a partnership with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY +0.83%) having produced blockbusters including Plavix, Avalide, and Avapro. With those drugs now all seeing generic competition, the two companies decided to change their arrangement, with Bristol giving up its worldwide rights to the drugs in 2013 while retaining U.S. and Puerto Rican rights to Plavix.
But Sanofi has a reasonably strong pipeline to help it replace sales lost to generics. In October, its Gaucher disease drug eliglustat tartrate had good results in a phase 3 trial, adding to its coverage for the disease through its Cerezyme treatment. As an oral treatment, eliglustat tartrate would give Sanofi a huge advantage over injected drugs.
Drug costs have been a hot-button political issue lately, and Sanofi has had to take drastic measures to stamp out complaints. Last month, Sanofi cut the price of colorectal cancer drug Zaltrap, which it developed with Regeneron (REGN +0.97%), in half. The move was necessary to make the price comparable to Roche's similar drug Avastin, but Sanofi's willingness to bow to market pressures could bode ill for Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) and other companies that have needed to charge extremely high prices in order to recoup expensive development costs.
Sanofi has also embarked on some novel projects. It partnered with Coca-Cola (KO 0.76%) to launch beauty drinks, which are designed to promote wellness generally and skin health in particular.
For retirees and other conservative investors, Sanofi's dividend is reasonably strong. But with valuations fairly high, investors may prefer to wait for a pullback from its recent sharp advance before looking closely at adding Sanofi to retirement portfolios.
Keep searching
Finding exactly the right stock to retire with is a tough task, but it's not impossible. Searching for the best candidates will help improve your investing skills, and teach you how to separate the right stocks from the risky ones.
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