There were two different stories for InMode (INMD 0.81%) in 2022. In the first half of the year, the medical device stock plunged 68%. However, in the second half, InMode roared back, with its shares soaring nearly 59%.
Alas, it takes a bigger gain than that to make up for the big first-half loss. And to make matters worse, InMode has started off 2023 headed in the wrong direction.
But there are also two stories about InMode's attractiveness to investors right now. Here are the bull and bear arguments for the stock.
NASDAQ: INMD
Key Data Points
The bull case
Adria Cimino: InMode sells radio-frequency (RF) devices to doctors for a variety of aesthetics and wellness procedures. In aesthetics, uses include skin remodeling treatments and the treatment of skin irregularities like sun spots. In wellness, they're used for purposes like the strengthening of pelvic floor muscles.
The business has been going strong in spite of a difficult economy. In the third quarter, the company said it didn't see a slowdown. This is particularly significant, since the summer period generally isn't the best for aesthetics -- potential patients plan treatments before or after their vacations.
But InMode reported a 29% increase in revenue for the quarter to a record $121.2 million. And recently, InMode offered investors a sneak peek at its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings. The results give us reason to be optimistic.
The company expects record revenue for the quarter. And it predicts full-year revenue in the range of $453.9 million to $454.1 million. That represents an annual increase of at least 26%. Importantly, InMode also forecasts a non-GAAP gross margin of at least 83%.
Right now, InMode makes 88% of its revenue through the sales of equipment for use in aesthetics and wellness. Consumables for those treatments and services for the machines account for 12% of revenue. But as InMode gains more market share, consumables and services should make up a larger part of the picture. This will be a positive step because they represent recurrent revenue.
InMode has increased its marketing spend and put the focus on growth. So far, this is paying off. And that could continue. The global aesthetics market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.5% through 2030, according to Grand View Research. Considering all of this, InMode looks cheap, trading at about 12 times forward earnings estimates.
The bear case
Keith Speights: There's admittedly a lot of excitement about InMode. Three of the four analysts surveyed by Refinitiv that cover the stock rate it as a strong buy. The lone exception still recommends buying InMode but just doesn't apply the "strong" label. The average Wall Street 12-month price target for the stock reflects an upside potential of over 50%.
But there's nonetheless a solid bear argument against buying InMode. And it's why the stock slid 9% lower last week after providing a look at its Q4 and full-year 2022 results. The reality is that InMode's sales growth is slowing significantly.
The aesthetics-focused company expects 2023 revenue to increase by 15.6% year over year. That's certainly not horrible. However, it pales in comparison to the 26% revenue growth InMode delivered in 2022.
More importantly, that's not the kind of growth that causes investors to be overly enthusiastic. It wouldn't be surprising for some of those rosy analysts' price targets to be revised downward. With the potential for a recession in 2023, investors have better alternatives over the near term.
Choose your side
Each investor should decide which arguments are more compelling when it comes to InMode. The company's growth is slowing, but that could change once macroeconomic worries subside. InMode appears to be weathering the current challenges relatively well.
Remember, too, that it's possible to be both a bull and a bear with a given stock. You can take a bearish view over the short term and a bullish view over the long term. That just might be the best take when it comes to InMode.
