Shares of robotic process automation expert UiPath (PATH +4.40%) rose 27.2% in November 2023, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The month also ended with a bang and UiPath's stock posted another 26.7% gain on Dec. 1. Including that extra day with the November tally, UiPath's shares gained 61.2% in 31 days.
The rocket fuel for UiPath's 31-day journey in November
The proper November gains were honestly not terribly exciting. UiPath's stock generally rose alongside other artificial intelligence (AI) experts until the last week of the month, buoyed by improving economic news and refreshed chatter around the AI opportunity.
Machine learning hardware leader Nvidia posted stellar business results on Nov. 21 but UiPath's stock barely moved the next day -- and Nvidia's share price fell due to modest guidance and profit-taking investors. These counterintuitive market moves are expected when an entire industry is soaring on the wings of new technology whose long-term market impact remains to be seen. There's a healthy mix of speculative traders and long-term investors out there. The eternal tug-of-war between these investing philosophies creates and destroys shareholder value in the stock market. Without it, stock owners might as well watch paint dry.
So UiPath headed into its earnings report on an impressive head of steam. The stock had gained 55.5% year to date when it reoprted its update for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, ended Oct. 31. Sales rose 24% year over year to $326 billion, adjusted earnings more than doubled from $0.05 to $0.12 per share, and free cash flows swung from a $33 million cash burn to a $41 million cash-based profit.
These figures blew the doors off UiPath's third-quarter guidance and Wall Street's consensus estimates. The resulting single-day jump was a natural reaction to that game-changing report.
NYSE: PATH
Key Data Points
What UiPath's surge means for the future
UiPath's management expects approximately 24% sales growth in the fourth quarter alongside sequential improvements in recurring revenue and adjusted operating income. In other words, the positive business trends that lifted UiPath to unexpected heights in the third quarter are still in play during the current reporting period.
If you see UiPath as a canary in the AI coal mine, the bird is perfectly healthy and chirping songs of digital joy. Baking generative AI into its robotic systems controls, the company is taking full advantage of the current market tenor. If people want AI-assisted help with formulating their robotic control processes, UiPath is happy to provide that interface.
The stock isn't exactly cheap today, trading at 11 times sales and 55 times free cash flows. Then again, those cash flows just turned positive and the AI sector is full of even higher valuation ratios these days. UiPath doesn't strike me as a no-brainer buy, all things considered, but you should consider taking a closer look and perhaps starting a modest and mildly speculative position in the stock.
