In 2023, Solana (SOL +0.76%) was one of the top-performing major cryptocurrencies, up an eye-popping 900%. In 2024, Solana has continued to turn in a stellar performance. At its current price of $165, Solana is up more than 60% through the first five months of the year.
The problem, however, is that Solana appears to be running into a wall right now. It is down nearly 20% since it hit an intra-year high of just over $200 in March. Should you view this as a potential buying opportunity, or as a warning sign that Solana's impressive recent gains could be coming to an end? Let's take a closer look.
Is Solana the next Ethereum?
The primary reason to invest in Solana right now is that it could eventually become the next Ethereum (ETH 0.38%). Solana is a direct challenger to Ethereum in the Layer 1 blockchain space, and has been steadily gaining ground in every major niche, from decentralized finance (DeFi) to non-fungible tokens (NFTs). For nearly four years, Solana has been tagged as a potential "Ethereum killer," and now it finally seems to be delivering on its promise.
CRYPTO: SOL
Key Data Points
Cathie Wood of Ark Invest raved about Solana last year, calling it a faster, cheaper, and more efficient version of Ethereum. That's backed up by real numbers. Solana, for example, says it can process 50,000 transactions per second. Ethereum, by way of comparison, can only process 15 to 20 transactions per second. To achieve faster transaction processing speeds, Ethereum relies on a confusing mix of Layer 2 scaling solutions that even developers say is becoming too hard to use.
Solana's secret weapon
Moreover, Solana has a secret weapon that Ethereum simply cannot match: A mobile crypto strategy that is finally gaining traction with customers. Solana officially launched its new "crypto phone" (the Saga) last year. Early sales were weak, but a clever marketing promotion based around Solana meme coins has led to sales taking off.
Image source: Getty Images.
From the outset, Solana's mobile strategy was designed as a way to onboard new crypto users. The goal was to get a mobile phone into people's hands, give them plenty of apps they couldn't find anywhere else, and design new mobile experiences to make crypto easier to use. That, in turn, could result in people beating down the door to become part of the Solana blockchain ecosystem.
Admittedly, this might be a very long-term strategy. But it might just work. According to investment firm VanEck, all Solana needs is a single "killer app" with at least 100 million users, along the lines of a ChatGPT. If Solana can find a "killer app" for its mobile phone, it could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
VanEck ran the numbers and determined that, in a bull-case scenario, Solana might be worth over $3,200 by 2030. So, yes, if you buy into this analysis, you should be buying Solana while it's still below $200. At today's prices, you might be able to make a 20-fold return on your investment.
The case against Solana
However, there are a number of reasons to be concerned about Solana. For example, the current bout of meme coin popularity taking over the Solana blockchain seems to be leading to some unsustainable performance. All of the improvement that we've been seeing in Solana's metrics -- such as new users, new unique wallets, and spikes in transaction activity -- might just be a lot of smoke and mirrors.
Moreover, Solana continues to stand in Ethereum's shadow when it comes to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). At the end of May, the SEC granted approval for new spot Ethereum ETFs to begin trading soon. If they are anywhere near as successful as the spot Bitcoin ETFs, they could lead to a huge influx of investor money flowing into Ethereum. That's fantastic for Ethereum holders, but it could act as a negative drag on Solana's price over the short to medium term. Money that otherwise might have gone into Solana will now be going into Ethereum.
How high can Solana go?
That being said, I'm taking a long-term approach when it comes to Solana. As Solana steadily gains market share at the expense of Ethereum, and as it continues to build out its mobile crypto strategy, I'm highly confident that it can continue to boost its valuation. Solana is still 36% below its all-time high of $260, which could be a reasonable near-term price target.
In a best-case scenario, of course, Solana will find the one "killer app" that it needs. If that happens, it could skyrocket in value and achieve what many have been predicting for several years now.
