Eli Lilly (LLY +0.80%) stands atop the biopharmaceutical world. It's the biggest drugmaker by far based on market cap. Lilly's share price has skyrocketed nearly 700% over the last five years and is up close to 55% in 2024.
Much of this success is due to two products, Mounjaro and Zepbound, which are the same drug marketed under different brands for treating type 2 diabetes and obesity, respectively. But Mounjaro and Zepbound aren't Lilly's only drugs with blockbuster potential.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
Already on the market
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved three likely big winners for Lilly since the beginning of 2023. They're now on the market and picking up momentum.
The FDA approved Omvoh (mirikizumab) in October 2023 for treating ulcerative colitis. Sales for the drug in the first half of 2024 weren't high enough for Lilly to provide details. However, that could soon change. The company awaits FDA approval for Omvoh in treating Crohn's disease. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in 2023 that the drug could generate peak annual sales in the ballpark of $2 billion.
In January 2023, the FDA approved Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) for treating mantle cell lymphoma. Less than 11 months later, the drug picked up a second approval as a third-line treatment for chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma. Lilly is evaluating Jaypirca in late-stage studies for other indications as well. GlobalData expects it to rake in around $3 billion in sales by 2032.
Lilly's most recent big regulatory win came two months ago with the FDA approval of Kisunla (donanemab) in treating Alzheimer's disease. Some analysts project that the drug could reach peak annual sales of $8 billion, while others estimate that peak sales in the ballpark of $4 billion are more likely.
Pipeline stars in the making
More blockbusters could be on the way: Lilly's pipeline features several late-stage candidates that should have major commercial potential.
The company is evaluating orforglipron in phase 3 clinical trials targeting type 2 diabetes and obesity. Unlike Mounjaro and Zepbound, this experimental drug is a pill rather than an injection, and the convenience factor could be an important selling point. In 2023, Morningstar predicted that orforglipron could generate peak annual sales of nearly $10 billion if it's approved.
However, it's not the only promising diabetes and obesity drug in the hopper for Lilly. The drugmaker is also evaluating retatrutide in phase 3 studies targeting type 2 diabetes and obesity. Because of its potential best-in-class efficacy, it's possible that this could be an especially big winner for Lilly.
And let's not leave out remternetug, which Lilly is testing in a phase 3 study as a potential treatment for Alzheimer's disease. Early data hinted that remternetug could be even more effective at removing amyloid plaque than Kisunla. It remains to be seen if that translates to impressive clinical benefits. If it does, Lilly could have another Alzheimer's disease blockbuster on its hands.
Should you buy Eli Lilly stock?
You might look at Eli Lilly's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 43 and conclude the stock is too expensive to buy. The problem with this valuation metric, though, is that it's not forward-looking enough. Much of Lilly's growth will come beyond the next year or two.
Lilly clearly has an abundance of growth drivers -- and the list includes more than Mounjaro, Zepbound, and the six drugs discussed earlier. Cancer drug Verzenio, type 2 diabetes drug Jardiance, and autoimmune disease drug Taltz are all blockbusters with strong sales momentum.
I think Eli Lilly's growth story is compelling, and the stock remains a great pick.
