It's been just over a year since Intuitive Machines (LUNR 1.02%) made history as the first private company to achieve a successful lunar landing. The mission marked a milestone in commercial space exploration, but more importantly, it solidified the company's position as a leader in the burgeoning industry with proven technical capabilities.
Despite a strong growth outlook fueled by several high-profile contracts, shares of Intuitive Machines have cratered at the start of 2025, trading down 60% year to date at the time of this writing amid the broader stock market sell-off.
With the stock now trading below $8, is it a buy? Here's what you need to know.
NASDAQ: LUNR
Key Data Points
A leader in space exploration
Intuitive Machines does not launch rockets itself but instead designs, builds, and operates spacecraft, such as its lunar landers. For its groundbreaking February 2024 IM-1 mission, the company's Odysseus Nova-C lander rode a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket -- an approach that allows it to concentrate on its core strengths in payload delivery, lunar surface infrastructure, mobility and robotics, satellite operations, and data communications services.
The company aims to advance its technology steadily, eyeing a space infrastructure market opportunity that experts project will grow to $1.8 trillion by 2035. The early financial results have been impressive. In 2024 (covering the full year ended Dec. 31) Intuitive Machines' total revenue reached $228 million, nearly triple the 2023 result amid multiple contract awards and a close partnership with NASA, ending the year with a $328 million backlog.
Image source: Getty Images.
Projects fueling Intuitive Machines' growth include the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, which builds on IM-1's success with IM-2's South Pole landing earlier this year to prospect for water. Two more lunar missions are slated through 2027. There is also the ongoing Omnibus Multidiscipline Engineering Services contract that further supports NASA with broad operational expertise.
For 2025, the company projects revenue of $250 million to $300 million, a solid 20% annual increase. While Intuitive Machines is not yet profitable, management's guidance suggests a positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) run rate by the end of the year, and for 2026, an encouraging sign of more sustainable fundamentals. This is backed by a robust balance sheet, with $385 million in cash and zero debt as of March 13, ensuring ample liquidity to drive its ambitions.
Catalysts on the horizon
One of the attractions of Intuitive Machines as an investment is that, despite uncertainties over the U.S. economy's strength and the looming impact of Trump administration trade tariffs, its business profile and operating tailwinds remain largely insulated from these dynamics. Its multiyear NASA contracts, funded at the federal level, ensure project continuity regardless of how consumer spending or GDP evolves, providing valuable stability in the early stages of a fast-evolving space exploration industry. While a severe economic downturn could pressure NASA to reassess future projects or limit private sector opportunities, it's business as usual for now.
Looking ahead, key catalysts could reignite investor enthusiasm and boost Intuitive Machines' battered stock price. The IM-3 mission, set for early 2026, will launch the first of five data relay satellites under the NASA Near Space Network contract, marking its entry into lucrative high-bandwidth transmission solutions as part of its space infrastructure-as-a-service offerings.
Later in 2025, NASA's decision on the $4.6 billion Lunar Terrain Vehicle Services contract, spanning 15 years through 2040, could be a game-changer for Intuitive Machines, one of three finalists. Additional private sector engagements and deployment announcements would likely further bolster its growth trajectory to lift investor sentiment.
Decision time: Buy the dip
I'm bullish on Intuitive Machines and see the recent stock price weakness as a chance for investors to buy the dip before a potential rebound. With the stock trading approximately 5 times its estimated 2025 revenue, the forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio highlights compelling value for an industry pioneer with substantial long-term potential. The rally from here may not shoot straight into orbit, but the company has the pieces in place to reward shareholders over the long run. A small position in the stock, built through dollar-cost averaging to manage near-term volatility, could work well within a diversified portfolio.
