While stock market investing is one of the best ways to build wealth, it is not without its risks. The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and other countries is a perfect example. However, with the Nasdaq Composite down by over 20% year to date, the chaos could create long-term opportunities.
Let's explore some reasons why shares in Amazon (AMZN +4.58%) and Nvidia (NVDA +2.93%) could soon be entering bargain territory.
Amazon
With shares down 22% year to date, Amazon stock has been hit hard by the growing uncertainty surrounding international trade. That isn't surprising, considering the company's retail marketplace and globalized operations. However, while Amazon faces near-term challenges, its biggest profit drivers look somewhat insulated from these challenges.
NASDAQ: AMZN
Key Data Points
The company's cloud-computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS), mainly focuses on digital services, which are typically immune from tariffs. And while international e-commerce represented 23% of company revenue in the fourth quarter ($43.4 billion), the segment only generated a meager $1.3 billion in operating income, which is just 6.2% of the total. The company also exited China in 2019 because of a combination of complex regulations and local competition.
At the end of the day, Amazon's e-commerce business relies on the American consumer, insulating it from geopolitical uncertainty. And even though tariffs could make products more expensive at home, they could wipe out foreign competitors like Temu and Shein, which had begun to challenge its dominance with their ultracheap products shipped directly from China. The Asian nation was hit with an additional tariff rate of 34%.
Granted, Amazon faces a great deal of uncertainty. However, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 26, the company's valuation has already priced in a lot of the near-term challenges.
Nvidia
With Nvidia's shares down 27% year to date, investors who missed the bull run in 2023 and 2024 may soon have the opportunity to get a piece of the action. Although it might not be time to buy yet, Nvidia stock is drifting toward serious bargain territory. Like Amazon, its business seems insulated from tariff-related retaliation.
For starters, the Trump administration has exempted semiconductors from its import tariffs, which are set at 32% on Taiwan. Furthermore, Nvidia's primary customers are U.S. tech giants like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, which can be expected to continue buying its graphics processing units (GPUs) to remain competitive in the generative artificial intelligence (AI) arms race.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia has also taken the unprecedented step of onshoring its supply chains to the U.S. The company's primary manufacturing partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, even fabricates Nvidia's flagship Blackwell-based AI chips at its facility in Arizona. This massive push toward localization could help insulate the company from political pressure both in the U.S. and in other jurisdictions.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan give the U.S. economy a 60% chance of recession in 2025, and it is unclear how AI chip demand will hold up during a downturn, so Nvidia's business is not totally safe. However, with a forward P/E multiple of just 22, the AI industry leader is already cheaper than the S&P 500's average estimate of 24. The value is getting hard to ignore.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
It is safer to bet on America
While Trump's tariff plans have created extreme uncertainty in financial markets, investors should keep in mind that the U.S. economy is better designed to weather this situation compared to its rivals. Exports only represent 11% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), compared to 19% in China and 43% in Germany. The U.S. economy is powered by internal consumption, which represents a whopping 68% of GDP.
This dynamic should help minimize the country's economic hurt in the event of a trade war, allowing it to obtain more favorable terms in possible negotiations. While investors may want to wait for the dust to settle before buying stocks, deals may start opening up as the valuations of America's most dominant companies start drifting into bargain territory.
