Nvidia (NVDA +1.31%) has been one of the best-performing stocks in recent years, with its price up more than 1,000% since 2023 and around 250% since 2024. However, one Wall Street analyst believes that Nvidia still has plenty of room to soar.
Phil Panaro of the Boston Consulting Group thinks that the stock could reach $800 per share by 2030, representing a 370% increase from current levels. Considering that it's already the world's largest company, that's a bold call.
But is this $800 price target realistic? Let's back-calculate the numbers to find out.
Nvidia headquarters. Image source: Nvidia.
Nvidia forecasts monster growth for data centers
Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs) alongside other hardware and software that support them. Although originally designed to process gaming graphics, GPUs are incredibly useful for any task that requires a significant amount of computing power.
GPUs can process multiple calculations in parallel, which allows them to excel at these complex tasks. They have been widely used in processing engineering simulations, drug discovery, cryptocurrency mining, and their largest assignment to date: training and processing AI models.
Nvidia sells most of its GPUs to AI hyperscalers, which then place them in data centers to create powerful computing clusters. Its revenue growth has been impressive, but it's nowhere near done expanding.
The company likes to cite third-party research that shows data center capital expenditures (capex) were $400 billion in 2024 and are expected to increase to $1 trillion by 2028. Considering that the chipmaker generated $115 billion in data center revenue during fiscal 2025 (which encompasses most of 2024), it captured nearly 30% of total spending on it.
NVDA Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.
Should this $1 trillion projection come to fruition and Nvidia maintains a 30% market share, that would mean it will generate $300 billion in revenue. Over the past 12 months, the company has $149 billion in revenue, indicating about 100% growth if the projection comes true. That's far shy of the 370% growth needed to turn it into an $800 stock, as Phil Panaro projects, but it's still strong and market-beating growth.
But Panaro's call isn't for 2028, it's for 2030. So we need to look beyond the projection that Nvidia is citing.
Even an extended time frame doesn't get Nvidia to $800
The global data center capex figure cited by Nvidia in its 2025 GTC event indicates a compound annual growth rate of 26%. If the data center industry can maintain that growth rate for two extra years until 2030, projected capex would reach nearly $1.6 trillion.
If the company can maintain its 30% market share, its revenue would be $473 trillion, indicating 217% growth. This clearly falls short of the 350% Nvidia would need to achieve the $800 price target that Panaro has assigned to the stock.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
As a result, I don't think the chipmaker can reach Panaro's target within his specified time frame. Still, these calculations have shown that if the data center capex projections are met over the next few years -- and Nvidia maintains its market share dominance -- it can be an incredibly strong performer, delivering market-crushing returns.
That makes it a solid stock to buy now, and I think investors would be wise to add Nvidia shares over the next few months.
