Media-streaming pioneer Netflix (NFLX 0.61%) will report earnings after the closing bell on Jan. 20, 2026. The update will cover the fourth-quarter and full-year results for fiscal year 2025.
Is Netflix stock a no-brainer buy before the Q4 2025 report?
NASDAQ: NFLX
Key Data Points
Why buying before earnings feels like a cheat code
Let's imagine you had a habit of buying Netflix shares on the Friday before each Q4 report. In four of the past five years, you would have seen double-digit percentage gains on those positions within six market days after each report.
Netflix tends to deliver pleasant surprises after the holidays, even if the setup never seemed perfect. For instance:
- In January 2025, the stock valuation looked stretched before the report.
- In 2024, leading rivals offered deep discounts during the holiday season.
With that history of stock-boosting reports, Netflix seems like a slam-dunk buy this month. The stock is down because of a mostly debt-financed $72 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 1.37%). Another strong holiday-quarter report can surely soothe those financial concerns.
Right?
Image source: Netflix.
Loading up before earnings can backfire
Well, not so fast.
Not every Q4 report lights a fire under Netflix's stock. In the pattern-breaking report of January 2022, for example, share prices fell as much as 31.6% after the Q4 2021 report. And that was in the early days of Netflix's cash-generating operations. Netflix investors weren't ready when management outlined a new strategy in that report, optimizing bottom-line profits instead of subscriber growth for the first time.
So Netflix is a great stock to buy right now, looking at profitable growth in the years ahead, but you never know what the market will do in the short term, even with proven long-term winners. Be prepared for anything.
Feel free to set up a starting position in Netflix before the report, if you don't have one. Otherwise, continue to buy, sell, or own Netflix stock based on the company's long-term business prospects. For better or worse, Jan. 20 will provide new data for your research.
