There's no denying that Apple (AAPL 1.93%) has been a long-term winner for investors, gaining 78,390% since its initial public offering as of this writing. Over the past couple of years, however, the iPhone maker has fallen on hard times. The combination of economic uncertainty and on-again, off-again tariffs has taken a toll, with Apple stock gaining just 40% over the past two years, lagging the 46% gains of the S&P 500.
However, things are beginning to look up. Recent developments could help jump-start the flagging stock, helping Apple regain its former glory.
Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities recently issued a new Street-high price target of $350, which represents potential gains for investors of 35% compared with Friday's close, which would push Apple's market cap to $5.17 trillion. The veteran tech analyst listed four catalysts that could propel the iPhone maker to new heights in 2026.
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1. Partner with Google Gemini
While the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is in full swing, Apple has largely been left out of the conversation. Apple has faced challenges collecting the data necessary to power AI, because of its walled garden and emphasis on user privacy. Rumors have swirled that Apple was hammering out a deal with Alphabet to use Google Gemini as a foundation for its own large language models. Ives called Apple's "invisible AI strategy" the elephant in the room, suggesting that a partnership between the two tech titans would be a necessary first step to ignite Apple's ascent.
Ives' prediction came to pass on Monday, as Apple announced the partnership, saying, "Google's technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation Models and we're excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for our users."
With more than 2.4 billion active iOS devices, including more than 1.5 million iPhones, Apple has the "biggest consumer installed base in the world," according to Ives. This provides a captive audience and target market for Apple's AI-powered products and services.
2. A much-needed Siri makeover
Users have long disparaged the state of Siri, Apple's voice assistant. While its conversational AI was groundbreaking when Siri was added to the iPhone in 2010, upgrades have lagged in recent years, and rival offerings have surpassed the digital darling.
Ives also predicted that Siri would receive a much-needed makeover, and his prediction proved prescient. As part of its partnership with Google, Apple said that Gemini would "help power Apple Intelligence features, including a more personalized Siri coming this year."
Chatbots and voice assistants have gone viral since the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. The long-awaited upgrade for Siri could be a catalyst for future growth.
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
3. Success of iPhone 17 giving way to iPhone 18
The aforementioned economic uncertainty has led to a slump in iPhone sales in recent years. Apple's revenue declined 3% in fiscal 2023, while growing an anemic 2% in 2024. However, things picked up in 2025, as sales jumped more than 6%, with record revenue fueled by strong iPhone sales and services revenue that reached a new all-time high.
Ives believes that Wall Street is underestimating iPhone sales growth for 2026, which he expects will be driven by continued sales of iPhone 17 and a successful transition to iPhone 18. The analyst highlights robust demand in China and anticipates an increase in the average selling price (ASP) for the next-generation devices.
Evidence suggests Ives' call is right on the money. The introduction of the iPhone 17 late last year came with a $100 price increase, from $999 to $1,099. Therefore, it isn't unreasonable to suspect a similar price increase when the iPhone 18 launches in September.
4. The rumored departure of CEO Tim Cook
Rumors have swirled in recent months that Apple CEO Tim Cook could be planning to step aside, as the chief executive nears a "typical" retirement age. Furthermore, this speculation was fueled by a recent shake-up within the company's C-suite executives and the resulting update to Apple's succession planning.
Ives believes this talk is a lot of idle chatter, predicting that Cook will remain CEO "at least through the end of 2027." He points to the recent hire of renowned AI researcher Amar Subramanya as evidence that Cook is keenly focused on ensuring Apple's AI legacy, and downplays talk of his pending retirement.
To be clear, no one can know for sure what's in Cook's mind, though reports suggest he was looking to reduce his workload. That said, speculation about his potential retirement is just that and should be taken with a grain of salt until we hear otherwise from Cook himself.
Is he right?
The trajectory of Apple's business suggests a $5 trillion market cap may not be far off:
- Late last year, estimates suggested 315 million active iPhones that hadn't been upgraded in more than four years, forming the foundation for a powerful upgrade cycle.
- While the global smartphone market grew just 2% in 2025, iPhone shipments increased 10%, according to Counterpoint Research. At the same time, Apple captured a 20% share of the market, up from 18% in 2024.
- The aforementioned price increase could boost the ASP with the upcoming release of the iPhone 18.
These represent a trifecta of ways Apple can increase its revenue, helping fuel its run to $5 trillion. And at just 28 times next year's expected earnings, the price is right.
