A rather alarming analysis of the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on white-collar jobs sent the stock market into a panic on Monday. This helped push down the share prices of numerous prominent companies across several sectors. Most notably in the financial industry, Visa (V 0.80%) took it on the chin with an almost 5% decline on the day.
Doom scenario
On Sunday, an independent research firm, Citrini Research, published an article on Substack hypothesizing about the far-reaching effects of greater AI implementation.
Image source: Visa.
In the piece, which it labels "a scenario, not a prediction," Citrini wrote a hypothetical economic and stock market digest dated June 30, 2028. In it, it "reported" that the U.S. unemployment rate had reached over 10%, and the S&P 500 index was down by 38% from its all-time high in October 2026.
That lofty unemployment number will, of course, be due largely to the take-up of AI and its displacement of human labor. As Citrini wrote, "It should have been clear all along that a single GPU cluster in North Dakota generating the output previously attributed to 10,000 white-collar workers in midtown Manhattan is more economic pandemic than economic panacea."
The researcher singled out several high-profile companies that would be particularly vulnerable to disruption. One was Visa, as the company's main revenue stream -- the service and processing fees it collects from transactions effected on its network -- would be threatened by agentic AI models optimizing forms of commerce that didn't require such charges.
NYSE: V
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Overblown concerns?
There's no doubt that AI will be a disruptive force in the economy and threaten the business models of more than a few traditional companies.
I'm not so sure it'll have such an explosive effect on Visa, not least because a great many consumers actually enjoy shopping, and doing so directly. They also don't seem too bothered by those transaction fees, which are in the low single-digit percentages. I wouldn't push the panic button on the card giant's stock, at least not yet.
