Few stocks embody the promise and frustration of the nuclear energy renaissance quite like NuScale Power (SMR -1.99%).
Back in 2020, NuScale became the first U.S. company to get a small modular reactor (SMR) design approved by the NRC. Since then, the company hasn't deployed a commercial SMR model in a real-world setting. And while electricity demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers are expected to surge, NuScale has yet to emerge as tech's most obvious beneficiary.
NYSE: SMR
Key Data Points
Over the next three years, a few possibilities could emerge for this first-mover in the SMR space. In the most bearish scenario, NuScale's projects continue to move slowly but steadily. It may begin conversations with utilities or industrial companies about another project, but most of its concentration will be on developing the two it currently has underway: the SMR plant in Romania and the deployment of 6 gigawatts (GW) of SMRs to the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA).
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Cranking the bull dial to a more aggressive level, a three-year timeline could see NuScale's commercial partner, ENTRA1 Energy, secure customers in the data center space. In this scenario, the TVA project would be moving closer to completion, with meaningful revenue coming into view. Success there could also validate NuScale's technology, which in turn would open the door to additional deployments across the U.S.
Regardless of the exact outcome, NuScale's first SMR is unlikely to come online for another few years. This means investors interested in NuScale will need to keep a watchful eye on its two developing projects, as their success could determine whether the company evolves into the major nuclear energy stock it's expected to become.
