The Space Explorations Technology Corp. (SPCX -1.36%) IPO has already exceeded many analyst expectations. Consider the warnings from Morningstar analysts on June 9 -- days before the record-breaking IPO.
"The SpaceX IPO is shaping up to be one of the largest and most closely watched market debuts in recent memory," the Morningstar report began. "The valuation, however, deserves more careful scrutiny."
After an independent analysis, Morningstar concluded that SpaceX's current business should only be valued at $780 billion -- less than one-third of its current market cap. "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO," its report concluded.
Image source: Getty Images.
With SpaceX stock already up by more than 30% since its IPO day, Morningstar's analysts may already be scratching their heads. But the road ahead will be long. SpaceX will need to continually prove its ability to execute on long-shot opportunities with massive growth potential to keep investors interested in its multitrillion-dollar market cap.
When will we get the first official update from SpaceX outlining its post-IPO spending to execute critical growth milestones? The company's first big reveal should occur within the next few months.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
Here's when to expect the first SpaceX earnings report
Wall Street analysts expect the first SpaceX earnings report to occur sometime in late July or early August. While it will be the company's first official earnings disclosure, technically it will be classified as the company's second-quarter results.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has a long history of making surprising comments on earnings calls. On Tesla (TSLA -0.53%) earnings calls, for example, he has predicted "record-breaking" revenues, previously unannounced product launches, and technology rollouts with timelines that seem highly aggressive, if not outright impossible. Expect the same Musk to appear on SpaceX's earnings call.
What exactly will Musk be commenting on? Wall Street will likely care most about progress on the company's Starlink internet segment. That segment produces the most cash for the company, with impressive growth rates and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins.
But I'm not sure if this is the segment the market cares about most long-term. After all, the vast majority of SpaceX's claimed total addressable market has nothing to do with Starlink. The public, I'm predicting, will care most about two things: rockets and AI.
I expect Musk to provide bullish updates on the company's Starship megarocket, a key enabler for the rest of the company's space-based growth initiatives. I also expect Musk to provide details surrounding the company's capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. That includes both the continued rollout of its terrestrial data center facilities and progress on the potential launch of orbital data centers.
Following the publication of the company's 370-page IPO prospectus, I don't expect any major changes to SpaceX's core narrative. But armed with more than $75 billion in fresh capital, I'm looking forward to Musk's commentary regarding how that money is being spent, as well as key catalysts to expect in the coming months and years.
