Here is a prediction that will sound outlandish today: A decade from now, Broadcom (AVGO +2.21%) will be worth more than both Apple (AAPL +0.76%) and Microsoft (MSFT 1.15%).
At the moment, that looks like a stretch. Broadcom carries a market value of around $1.76 trillion, while Apple sits near $4.9 trillion and Microsoft close to $2.9 trillion. To pass them, Broadcom would have to nearly triple in value while the two giants tread water. I think it could happen, and the reason is that the value in technology is shifting.
Image source: Getty Images.
The case for Broadcom on top
Broadcom has become one of the essential suppliers of the artificial intelligence (AI) era. It designs the custom chips that companies like Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Anthropic use to run their AI systems, and it dominates the networking gear that ties thousands of those chips together inside a data center. Management has projected that custom AI chip revenue will exceed $100 billion annually by 2027, and demand continues to grow as major AI players race to build more computing power.
That is the key to my prediction. The AI build-out is arguably the largest infrastructure project of our lifetime, and Broadcom sells the picks and shovels at its center. Apple and Microsoft are magnificent businesses, but their growth engines, iPhones and enterprise software, are more mature. Broadcom is leveraged directly to the raw expansion of AI compute, which is growing far faster. When the fastest-growing slice of an industry compounds long enough, the leaderboard eventually reshuffles.
NASDAQ: AVGO
Key Data Points
Why I could be wrong
I will be honest about the risks, because a 10-year call is humbling. Apple and Microsoft are cash machines with enormous ecosystems and their own AI ambitions, and either could reaccelerate. Broadcom, by contrast, is tied to the semiconductor cycle, which booms and busts, and much of its growth depends on a handful of giant customers. If those customers ever design more chips in-house, or if AI spending cools, Broadcom's trajectory could stall in a hurry. A decade is a long time, and anything can go wrong.
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
Predictions like this are meant to provoke thought, not to be taken as gospel. Whether Broadcom actually overtakes Apple and Microsoft or not, the deeper point stands: The center of gravity in technology is moving toward AI infrastructure, and Broadcom is one of the purest ways to own that shift. I think that gives it a longer and steeper growth runway than the aging giants above it. Own it for that runway, keep the cyclicality in mind, and let the next 10 years settle the bet.
