SpaceX (SPCX +1.04%), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, went public in the largest IPO in history on June 12. It initially soared from its IPO price of $135 to a record closing price of $211.39 on June 16, but now trades at about $108 per share.
However, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX's growth potential. The dozens of analysts who cover SpaceX still have an average price target of $236.71 on the stock, with its highest target (from Raymond James' Brian Gesuale) at $800.
Those bullish estimates are based on the idea that SpaceX will expand far beyond rockets and satellites to become an artificial intelligence (AI) powerhouse. But is that outlook too optimistic?
Image source: Getty Images.
How SpaceX could evolve over the next decade
SpaceX generates most of its revenue from Starlink, its satellite internet service. Starlink is also the company's only profitable business division. SpaceX's space segment, which produces its Falcon rockets, and its AI segment, which houses xAI, X, and Cursor, are both unprofitable.
In the past, SpaceX generated a slim profit as Starlink's profits offset its space division's losses. But after SpaceX expanded its AI unit (by acquiring xAI before its IPO and Cursor after its IPO), it became unprofitable as the AI segment's losses erased Starlink's profits. It will remain unprofitable as it expands its AI business through further investments and acquisitions.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
SpaceX's revenue rose 33% to $18.7 billion in 2025. At its current market cap of $1.43 trillion, it still looks expensive at 76 times its trailing sales. However, Elon Musk claims SpaceX could generate more than $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. Analysts, on average, expect its revenue to rise more than sevenfold to $141.6 billion by 2028. They also expect it to turn profitable in 2027 and grow its net income more than five times to $47.1 billion in 2028.
That acceleration could initially be driven by Starship, its largest rocket ever, and the expansion of Starlink, which already serves over 10.3 million subscribers. But after setting up that infrastructure, its growth could be fueled by its AI business.
SpaceX's AI business looks like a fragmented mess today. Still, it could become a cohesive one as it unifies its terrestrial data centers, solar-powered orbital data centers, and xAI's AI infrastructure and generative AI tools. If it achieves that, it would become the world's only end-to-end provider of space transportation, internet satellite, and AI infrastructure services.
If all three of those businesses grow rapidly over the next decade, then SpaceX could be cheap relative to its long-term growth potential. That's why Wall Street is still bullish on the stock.
