Netflix (NFLX -2.87%) stock hasn't kept up with its business lately. The streamer's operating income climbed 11% year over year in the second quarter, and management sees more than 20% growth for the full year.
But its shares trade near $72 as I write this, down about 43% from a 52-week high of $124.86.
This gap is a key reason I think the stock can make up a good chunk of the lost ground. My prediction: Netflix stock gets back to $100 before 2030. And I don't think it takes much more than Netflix doing what its own forecasts already lay out.
Image source: Netflix.
About 11% a year
Going from around $72 to $100 takes a 39% rise. Over the roughly three and a quarter years left before 2030, that's about 11% a year.
Netflix projects 2026 revenue of $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion, and it expects its operating margin to widen to 31.5% this year, up from 29.5% in 2025 and 26.7% in 2024. If revenue rises about 11% a year from the middle of that range, it hits around $70 billion in 2029. And if the operating margin keeps widening by about 1.5 percentage points a year (slower than the past two years), it lands near 36% in 2029. That gives operating income near $25 billion.
Then, I assumed taxes and interest take around the same cut of operating income they did in 2025. And if buybacks keep shrinking the share count by about 2% a year (the diluted count dropped about 2% in the last year), earnings per share come to about $5.20 in 2029.
A $100 share price would put the stock at around 19 times those 2029 earnings. That's near the price-to-earnings multiple Netflix has now on analysts' consensus estimate for 2027 earnings. (A $2.8 billion Warner Bros. termination fee inflates this year's profits.)
Put another way, the prediction depends on earnings growth, not on investors paying a higher valuation multiple.
Ads and pricing have to drive the growth
The tougher assumption is 11% yearly revenue growth. Year-over-year revenue growth was 16% in the first quarter and 13% in the second, and Netflix is guiding for around 12% in the third. Growth has been decelerating right toward the pace this prediction needs -- and it mostly has to stop slowing there.
Advertising could provide a big part of it. Netflix's 2025 ad revenue of over $1.5 billion was more than two and a half times what it brought in during 2024, and management expects around $3 billion this year. If ads hit about $9 billion by 2029 (a slower rate than this year's doubling), they could make up about a third of the roughly $19 billion in new annual revenue the path above requires.
The rest has to come from memberships and pricing. Leaving out ads, Netflix's revenue should rise around 10% this year based on its guidance. The path above needs about 8% yearly growth after that.
Price hikes should help. Management said its first-half price changes, including in the U.S., performed in line with earlier increases.
Notably, U.S. and Canada revenue growth fell from 18% for the last quarter of 2025 to 14% and then 10% in the first half of this year. But management said the second quarter showed just a partial-quarter effect of its latest price change there, so growth in Netflix's home region could firm up.
Is $100 a stretch?
I don't think $100 is a stretch, even if growth is below 11%. If revenue rises just 8% a year through 2029 instead, the same margin and buyback assumptions put earnings per share near $4.80.
At $100, the stock would then trade at around 21 times earnings. That's a higher valuation multiple than the stock has on next year's expected earnings, but not an extreme one for a company this profitable.
The margin assumption arguably looks safer. Netflix expects content amortization (the cost of its programming, spread over time) to climb around 10% in 2026, slower than its forecast of 13% to 14% revenue growth. If that continues, the operating margin should keep widening.
NFLX Netflix
NASDAQ · As of 4:00 PM ET 10/16/26
Sure, growth might not stop at 12%. Streaming's crowded, and single-digit growth with a flat margin could leave the stock well below $100.
Can Netflix stock get back to $100 before 2030? I expect it to.
But about 11% a year is a healthy return, not a stellar one, and it assumes growth settles near where management expects. At around $72, I think the stock's fairly priced, so I'm in no rush to buy shares. And any forecast that goes past three years is just an educated guess.
