I hope it's not too late to return my crystal ball to the pawnshop.
Back in December, I made eight predictions for 2010. I was feeling pretty cocky, seeing that I had nailed all but one of my nine market calls for 2009.
We're just past the midway mark of 2010, so I figured I would check in on my earlier prognostications. I'm not looking so good. In the spirit of full accountability, I will not change any of my predictions. However, I will flesh them out a bit to shed a little more light on the ones in which my confidence is wavering.
Let's dive right in.
1. Gold prices will fall in 2010
Despite the greenback's recent strength, there is still a flight out of distressed asset classes and into precious metals. An ounce of gold will set a buyer back roughly 7% more than when the year began, according to Goldprice.org.
I'm losing on this one, clearly. Europe's sovereign debt crisis, last quarter's horrendous equity markets, and the failure of real estate to truly bottom out are getting in the way of this one. I'll stick with it as I will with all of my market calls, though my chances of winning this one are fading fast.
2. Facebook will go public
Facebook continues to grow, but going the IPO route isn't a high priority at the social-networking giant. It's been able to raise money with ease when it's had to, and by most accounts, it can sustain itself these days.
A company doesn't have to need money to go public, though. Sometimes a combination of status seeking and giving vested employees a fluid exit strategy is all it takes to push a company toward its debutante ball.
Facebook has too many venture capitalist investors at this point not to go public, so it's certainly possible. However, the iffy market may be pushing Facebook to a 2011 IPO at this point.
3. Netflix will be acquired
There's been plenty of heat on the Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) buyout rumor that just won't die. However, the company's ability to successfully bridge the gap between DVD lender and streaming behemoth makes it less likely Netflix will accept a buyout offer unless it's at a significant premium.
That's the rub for Netflix. The companies that can still afford Netflix are also market darlings, and it's hard to broker a deal when neither side is desperate. Netflix's ability to position itself as the subscription service of choice for couch potatoes still finds me eyeing a buyout before year's end.
4. E*TRADE will be acquired
After a brief rudderless run with an interim CEO, E*TRADE (Nasdaq: ETFC) is poised to grow on its own. A reverse split and new CEO seem to cement the discount broker's position of giving it a college try as an independent.
I'm not convinced. Consolidation will continue among the discounters, especially at this competitive stage that finds brokers slashing commission schedules and introducing low-margin offerings.
At the end of the day, this is an arms race and E*TRADE is too big -- and too cheap -- to ignore.
5. Apple will go 4-for-4
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has been trouncing Wall Street's profit expectations for years, so predicting that the Cupertino darling will clock in ahead of analyst estimates in each of fiscal 2010's four quarters isn't really much of a limb extension.
Apple is 2-for-2, so far. However, it hasn't simply edged out the pros. Apple has been obliterating Wall Street's targets. It has clocked in 76% and 36% ahead of analyst estimates in its first two fiscal quarters, respectively.
6. Stocks will rise in 2010
I was a contrarian when I called for stocks to gain ground in 2009, given the bleak market sentiment at the time. When I repeated the call for 2010, I may have seemed to simply be following the herd along with the market rally that kicked off last March.
I guess I'm paying the price for going with the consensus this time. The S&P 500 has shed 3% of its value year to date.
I'm cool with that. Stocks are trading at ridiculously cheap valuations, even though some of the markdowns may be deceptive. I remain confident with this call, and it's not just because of last week's rousing bounce.
When even the BP (NYSE: BP) punching bag is attracting investor interest as a turnaround play, it's time to squeeze some of the pessimism out of Mr. Market.
7. Sirius XM Radio will gain ground in 2010
Pegging Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) to gain ground this year has been my most successful call in 2010.
Shares of the satellite radio giant have popped 60% this year, despite the crazy ups and downs along the way. Most of the news out of the Sirius XM camp has been positive in 2010. It's profitable. It continues to revise guidance higher after tacking on more than 750,000 net subscribers during the first six months of the year.
Naysayers love bashing the stock, its debt, and the thick float, but there's a legitimate media heavyweight coming into its own skin here.
8. Google will beat gold again
When I called for Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to outpace gold as an investment in 2010, I was banking on a combination of gold bugs retreating and the world's leading search engine advancing.
Well, I've been wrong on both fronts. Shares of Google have surrendered 23% of their value. Gold, as you already know, has edged higher this year.
Gold's lead may be too wide at the moment, but I really like Google's valuation here. Big G is fetching 17 times this year's projected earnings and just 15 times next year's bottom-line target.
Google's decision to scale back in China has proven costly. Shares of China's Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) are trading 72% higher this year, contrasting the decline at Google. However, I don't think Google will completely abandon China. I also think investors won't completely abandon Google after what should be another strong quarterly report out of the search star later this week.
Keep it coming, 2010.
I'll be back next week with even more predictions for 2010. It's your turn now. Share your market calls for 2010 in the comments box below.
