Analysts may be excited about tablets and their potential, especially the Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPad, but Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) is calming the storm. Tablets won't cannibalize laptop sales and they are just additive to the mobile category, Intel says.
Is the iPad redefining the mobile computing category or not? If we believe Intel, it is not. During last week's earnings call, CFO Stacy Smith said that tablets are merely "an additive category of computing much like netbooks were an additive category."
Netbooks will be selling a total of about 40 million units, which compares to current analyst estimates of about 10-15 million iPads, which, according to Apple, holds about 85% share of the tablet market.
Smith believes that the iPad adds organic growth to the mobile computing market and they won't negatively impact PC market growth: "Netbooks in fact had a higher potential to cannibalize [the laptop] and they didn't. I don't see tablets cannibalizing the PC market. I think people are using this for different kinds of reasons." However, he did concede that, "we are in the early stages of tablets obviously" and that there is "just one really shipping in volume today."
Smith noted that the company has shown about 30 different tablets based on the company's Atom processors so far (even if none is really shipping) and that the company remains "optimistic" on its opportunity in the tablet market. "The advantage of obviously Intel in this segment is you can run a number of operating systems. You can run Windows, you can run Android. You can run Chrome, and you can run MeeGo or the other versions of Linux. So we feel pretty good about our opportunity to participate in the growth as it happens." Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) recently said that it still plans on getting at least one Android-based tablet out in the market by fall.
In June, Intel announced the Oak Trail processor for tablets, which will be a system-on-a-chip (SoC) just like Moorestown, which is aimed at smartphones. Other than Moorestown, however, Oak Trail will include a PCI bus and will be able to run Windows. Oak Trail will be available in early 2011, according to Intel, and deliver up to "50% reduction in average power consumption with full HD-video playback and targeting software choice including MeeGo, Windows 7 and Google operating systems."
Atom, which has shipped 75 million units so far, seems to be targeting more and more the embedded market, where Intel sees future growth for the chip -- while CEO Paul Otellini noted during the earnings call that he does not see much more potential for its Atom processor in the netbook market than it already has. "I don't see that part of the Atom business taking off much higher than it already is," he said. "The new growth in Atom this year is going to be in embedded and in products like the Google TV product that were launched last month."
"A number of companies are now moving toward production on Atom-based television, set-top boxes, DVD players and so forth around that particular construct," Otellini said. "And to me that is one of the bigger things to watch for the holiday season as those products break market and see what happens."
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