Shares of Netflix
How it got here
If you're one of the 30.1 million subscribers Netflix had at last count, you might want to go check out 2003's Hulk, directed by Ang Lee. It's a pretty good depiction of Netflix's woes. Netflix created a growth-stock monster with expectations it couldn't control, and then … MARKET SMASH! Replace bad special effects with laughable PR blunders, and you've got Netflix in a nutshell.
This week's comic-book-style carnage, which reversed a brief summer rally, can be blamed on its latest earnings report. Despite beating analyst expectations on top and bottom lines, Netflix's admitted uphill battle toward its year-end subscriber goals sent shareholders scampering. Netflix is now, by a wide margin, the worst-performing entertainment purveyor of its ilk. None of its direct competitors has suffered more than a flat 52-week period as Netflix has cratered:
What you need to know
Just because Netflix has fallen down doesn't mean it'll stay there forever. Let's take a look at how it compares with its peers on a few key metrics:
Price to Free Cash Flow
Net Margin (TTM)
3-Year Annualized Income Growth
Netflix is nowhere near as highly valued as Amazon, but the wide discrepancy between its earnings and its cash flow could be cause for concern. However, neither company can hold a candle to Coinstar and DISH's reasonable valuations, particularly in cash-flow terms. Both companies operate at varying levels of capability in both physical DVD rentals and streaming. Coinstar is set to launch its streaming service partnership with Verizon
Netflix's recent bottom-line struggles have made both competitors look good by comparison. Since last year, Coinstar has absolutely trounced Netflix in this regard, and DISH now has a better five-year growth rate as well:
If Netflix can't turn its declining profits around, then it won't matter much that it expands overseas or boosts its subscriber numbers. It's past the growth phase now in the market's eyes, and investors are looking for sustainable profits.
Netflix may not recover for a while. Its content costs are likely to keep rising, and competition isn't going away. The company will need substantial streaming subscriber growth to overcome shriveling DVD subscriber rolls. Its best weapon is the depth of its library, which is still the best available online, though no one company has a truly complete lineup. Overseas growth will be important as well, but that's a long-term strategy that might not show positive results for some time.
The Motley Fool's CAPS community has given Netflix a two-star rating, with 82% of our CAPS players expecting the company to recover and beat the indexes going forward.
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