Veteran Motley Fool Hidden Gems members know what we love to find in a small company. Honest, competent management. Solid financials. High levels of insider ownership. Strong returns on equity and assets. Little or no Wall Street coverage. And a price that's right for long-term buyers.
What we don't often talk about, though, are the things that can go bump in the night. The nasty traits of some small businesses that make us fear and loathe them.
4,000 and counting
There are nearly 4,000 public companies capitalized at less than $500 million. Sure, there are loads of great winners in that bunch, companies poised to rise many times in value. Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) may have struggled mightily since hitting all-time highs, but they've still returned more than 2,100% and 1,100%, respectively over the past 15 years.
But let's not kid ourselves. Out of those 4,000 small companies, there are tons of mediocre (and worse!) firms. Like Tolkien's terrible dragon, Smaug, they can incinerate your savings in no time. (Hey, we warned you this was scary stuff!) Quite seriously, if you're not doing business research and you don't know what to avoid out there, you could lose your fortune.
When even seemingly solid companies lose significant value, you have to keep your eyes wide open. Who knew firms such as AIG (NYSE: AIG), Citigroup (NYSE: C), or Washington Mutual could be decimated so quickly? Not many were predicting that even a few weeks before it happened. Even the bluest of blue chips can hit a rough patch: General Electric (NYSE: GE) fell more than 70% during the financial crisis.
Let's start with an example of what to avoid.
Case study: Charter Communications
In our active online community, a Hidden Gems member asked us a few years back what we thought of Charter Communications, a broadband cable company whose chairman and largest individual shareholder is Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. The business was also substantially owned by Wally Weitz, a Nebraska-based investor greatly admired by Warren Buffett fans.
Charter stock had fallen from $25 to $4.50, and our member wanted to know whether it was a good time to invest for a turnaround.
We'll start by saying that in Hidden Gems, we absolutely love the broken small cap that's poised for a turnaround. Show us a company whose stock has fallen 90% from its highs, whose chairman is a billionaire, and whose largest institutional owner is a close friend of Warren Buffett, and we'll sign up to do very careful research. That's exactly what we did with Charter Communications at $4.50.
But we did not like what we found. Here's why we warned back then against investing in this business:
- Massive debt. Net debt (debt minus cash) was more than $18 billion.
- Net debt was 28 times the company's market cap of $640 million.
- Charter was unprofitable under generally accepted accounting principles, with $1.5 billion in yearly interest costs.
- Debt covenants posed a serious threat to the company's survival.
- The SEC had launched an investigation into Charter's accounting practices.
- Heavy spending for a cable infrastructure hadn't yielded high enough returns.
Near the end of June 2003, Fool co-founder Tom Gardner wrote negatively about this stock when it was trading at more than $4. It's tough to go contrary to Paul Allen and Wally Weitz. But there was no turnaround in sight, and the company's balance sheet was deteriorating. We warned investors about the company nearly every month for four years.
The stock itself eventually cratered, and Charter filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
What we do and don't fear
Oddly enough, our Hidden Gems team does not fear high debt in and of itself. One of our recommendations, Middleby, carried more than $100 million in debt after buying a competitor and repurchasing founder shares. Yet the stock has risen more than 400% since the original recommendation, and we remain very optimistic about its future. And the company's operations are strong enough to repay its obligations.
Nor do we fear companies that have fallen 90% from their all-time highs. Audible, which I found and wrote about, had fallen nearly to zero before turning around and showering its owners in newfound wealth before being acquired by Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN).
Each of these factors individually could make for a compelling investment as the stock price drops into the real value range.
So what was the problem with Charter Communications? The answer was the scale of its debt, running north of $18 billion, alongside harsh payment terms and emerging accounting problems.
To find out which stocks we do love, simply take a free trial of Motley Fool Hidden Gems. Read about all of the many small companies that have thus far easily topped the market. If you don't like it, you can cancel within 30 days without paying a dime.
This article was originally published Jan. 13, 2005. It has been updated.
Rex Moore helps the Gems team pan for gold. He owns shares of Microsoft. Microsoft and Dell are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Amazon.com and Starbucks are Stock Advisor selections. Middleby is a Hidden Gems pick. The Fool owns shares of Starbucks and Middleby, and Motley Fool Options has recommended a diagonal call on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
