Among other things, value investors like to look for cash cows. Sure, we're interested in those scary turnaround stories, but a safer and less stomach-churning strategy is to invest in growth at a reasonable price. This is the preferred method of value hounds from Buffett to Davis.
Of course, the growth we're looking for lies in good old-fashioned cash. Companies that spin off actual cash -- rather than just dumping everything back into capital expenditures -- make for truly market-beating returns. Don't believe me? Take a look at the long-term performance of a cash-chewer like GM (NYSE:GM) against the market index, then compare it with a legendary cash producer like Altria (NYSE:MO).
Spotting cheap growth
The beauty of the stock market is that good, cash-producing companies are routinely whacked by the market for short-term blips. That's when we can get growth at not only a reasonable price, but sometimes a downright steal.
So how do we find companies that are momentarily down but laughing all the way to the bank? Here's one way I do it. I screen for companies that have at least 5% earnings growth, and that, over a long period (five to seven years) see their cash flow from operations growing faster than their capital expenditures. Companies like these tend to spin off ever-larger amounts of cash.
Finally, I look for companies that have had momentary stumbles, that have had profit problems or spent more in capital spending than usual, sending their cash-flow growth down, along with their share price. (My final criterion is that each stock's price be less than 80% of its 52-week high.)
Here are 10 of the 22 companies I found when I ran that screen back in March.
|
Company |
Ticker |
52-Week High |
Recent Price |
P/E |
Capex |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Apollo Group |
(NASDAQ:APOL) |
$82.54 |
$52.15 |
20 |
-3.7% |
|
Gannett |
(NYSE:GCI) |
$80.02 |
$59.50 |
12.1 |
-6.1% |
|
Electronic Arts |
(NASDAQ:ERTS) |
$63.12 |
$54.18 |
67.3 |
40% |
|
IAC/Inter |
(NASDAQ:IACI) |
$55.50 |
$29.45 |
18.3 |
43.9% |
|
Patterson |
(NASDAQ:PDCO) |
$53.85 |
$34.49 |
25.3 |
60.7% |
|
Brunswick |
(NYSE:BC) |
$49.77 |
$38.65 |
9.8 |
36.4% |
|
Avon Products |
(NYSE:AVP) |
$45.02 |
$30.89 |
17.1 |
-17.3% |
|
Mittal Steel |
(NYSE:MT) |
$39.75 |
$38.47 |
7.9 |
31.5% |
|
Michaels Stores |
(NYSE:MIK) |
$43.61 |
$37.59 |
23.7 |
30.2% |
|
Comcast |
(NASDAQ:CMCSA) |
$33.81 |
$26.63 |
63 |
-1.1% |
Eyeballing the field
The first observation that emerges from this list is that many of the free cash flow meltdowns may be owed solely to higher levels of capital spending. Before running out to buy shares of Mittal or Brunswick, you would need to take a look at projections for capital spending, to make sure they're due to come in line with historical norms. If not, the price cuts that put the companies on that list may be well deserved. Patterson, by my data, has a recent history of capital spending growth that outruns operating cash flow growth, and -- like Mittal and Brunswick -- it's also a habitual acquirer, so tread carefully.
The situations at places like Michaels, Electronic Arts, and Comcast offer different challenges. While operating cash flow growth below historical norms earned these companies a spot on this list today, they have not compounded the pain with large increases in capital spending. Gannett and Apollo even look like they're on some kind of austerity program. If I had to pick between those two, I'd begin my research with Apollo, because the prospects for education seem a whole lot better than the outlook for old-school media like Gannett.
Counting the cash
Keep in mind that routines like this are just the beginning of the hunt for value. While screens provide a starting point, each company's specific situation will determine whether or not it's really a value. For my own part, owing to their strong (or even market-leading) positions, I'm most interested in Michaels, Electronic Arts, and Mittal. Cash-producing market leaders suffering temporary bumps are among the best investments you'll ever make. Buy these, and chances are you'll be laughing all the way to the bank, too.
Speaking of Mittal, it has already earned a spot in Philip "Admiral" Durell's Motley Fool Inside Value, where it has beaten the market by more than 22 percentage points. Three more Inside Value recommendations jumped the hurdle on my screen, but I can't give them all away, or the Admiral will toss me into the drink. A 30-day guest pass will let you take a look without walking the plank.
Seth Jayson is always looking for an 80-cent buck. At the time of publication, he had no positions in any company mentioned here. View his stock holdings and Fool profile here. Electronic Arts is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation. Fool rules are here.





