It happens to every company sooner or later: Wall Street sets a mark for quarterly earnings, and the company misses that goal. Sometimes an earnings stumble is a signal to sell, but digging in the dirt is also a good way to find turnaround candidates while they're getting beaten down. Today, we'll look behind a disappointing market week overall to see where travel bookings are going, learn whether people are listening to books, and gauge the merits of premium beer.
Today's first underachiever is Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE). The online travel agent reported earnings of $0.15 per share, while analysts were looking for $0.22 -- a 32% shortfall. The company pointed to lower-than-expected demand for its services, particularly domestic travel bookings, and increased costs in many sectors.
More specifically, increased SG&A (selling, general, and administrative) costs on fairly flat revenue appears to have caused the miss. It seems that increased marketing and a greater service headcount year over year didn't meaningfully increase sales.
I'll give Expedia a mulligan for the staffing costs, given that the company wasn't an independently traded entity last year and had to take on additional functions to meet trading regulations. Still, I wouldn't count on the situation improving very much this year. Management sounds downbeat about its near-term prospects, and I can see how rising fuel prices can lead to lower consumer spending, as well as higher ticket prices. It's a dour trend for Expedia.
If you do get on a plane to sunnier locales -- me, I live in Florida already -- you'll need something to do during the trip. Audible.com (NASDAQ:ADBL) hopes that you'll load your portable media player with a few audiobooks to help pass the time. Many of us do, as evidenced by a 50% increase in Audible's subscriber count year over year. However, that's the lowest percentage gain the company has ever seen, and analysts were holding out for more.
Tiny Audible is still in its growth phase, so a quarterly loss was expected. But the reported $0.08 loss per share was twice the expected size -- and those numbers don't include another $0.04 of stock-based compensation expenses.
I don't find the numbers terribly worrying, because this is a young, small, and growing company with a squeaky-clean balance sheet. Based on negative free cash flow of $7.4 million, $67 million in current assets, and no long-term debt, Audible can afford about eight more quarters like this one without lowering capital expenses or raising more capital. That's not to say that the increasing operational costs are irrelevant, but it does give the company some room to maneuver.
Finally, let's raise a tankard for Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM). Probably best known for its Sam Adams brew, the company reported $0.13 of profits per share, 54% below the $0.28 forecast. But revenues were up 16.8% year over year, most costs were held on a tight leash, and the one notable exception to that rule was largely due to a slew of new marketing efforts that could pay dividends in quarters to come.
Boston Beer is thinking about building out its in-house brewery capacity in the near future, in anticipation of the 2008 expiration of a production contract with Miller. Should that scenario come to pass, near-term expenses could put some pressure on the stock, but the company should emerge as a stronger competitor with less reliance on its partners. I'm thinking there could be a buying opportunity in a quarter or two.
Some of these underperformers are victims of larger circumstances, while others might have only themselves to blame. It's up to you to decide which down-on-their-luck companies should be able to pull themselves up by the bootstraps, and which really are stuck in the mud. Come back next Monday, and we'll take a look at another batch of mishaps and disappointments. It'll be fun and educational. Promise.
Further Foolishness that won't disappoint:
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You'll find Audible in Fool contributor Anders Bylund 's portfolio, but none of the other stocks mentioned live there. The Fool's disclosure policy is always on tap.
