Numbers can lie -- but they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:
- The current price multiples.
- The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
- How much growth we can expect.
Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Dollar General (NYSE: DG) might be.
The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the P/E ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share -- the lower, the better.
Then, we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). Like the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.
Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.
Dollar General has a P/E ratio of 19.7 and an EV/FCF ratio of 24.0 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations to the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, Dollar General has a P/E ratio of 43.2 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 26.6.
A one-year ratio under 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, under 20 is ideal.
Dollar General is zero for four on hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it compares against some competitors and industry mates.
|
Company |
1-Year P/E |
1-Year EV/FCF |
5-Year P/E |
5-Year EV/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar General | 19.7 | 24.0 | 43.2 | 26.6 |
| Dollar Tree (Nasdaq: DLTR) | 16.4 | 18.3 | 24.3 | 21.3 |
| Family Dollar Stores (NYSE: FDO) | 17.5 | 18.6 | 23.8 | 20.0 |
| Fred's (Nasdaq: FRED) | 19.9 | 16.9 | 24.5 | 20.0 |
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.
Numerically, we've seen how Dollar General's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine ...
The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash flow generation.
In the past five years, Dollar General's net income margin has ranged from -0.2% to 3.9%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 0.8% to 6.1%.
How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.
Additionally, over the last five years, Dollar General has tallied up four years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.
Next, let's figure out ...
How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But while you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared to similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.
Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Dollar General has put up past EPS growth rates of 6.5%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 18.5%.
Here's how Dollar General compares to its peers for trailing five-year growth:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; EPS growth shown.
And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:
Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; estimates for EPS growth.
The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples shares of Dollar General are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.
The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 19.7 P/E ratio and we see some low (but positive) recent growth and fairly consistent profitability, but this is just a start. If you find Dollar General's numbers or story compelling, don't stop. Continue your due diligence process until you're confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.
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