Grocery Outlet (GO) Q2 EPS Jumps 34%

Grocery Outlet (GO 43.01%), a discount grocer specializing in offering brand-name products at deep discounts, released its earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 on August 5, 2025. The release highlighted a strong beat on adjusted diluted earnings per share, which came in at $0.23, well above the analyst estimate of $0.17. Net sales (GAAP), at $1.18 billion, missed consensus by 0.7% but grew 4.5% from the prior year period. The period saw significant operating headwinds, with operating income of $12.8 million, which included $11.2 million in restructuring charges. Management’s overall assessment was one of steady operational progress tempered by continued pressure on profits and margins.

Source: Analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Management expectations based on management's guidance, as provided in Q1 2025 earnings report.

Business Overview and Strategic Focus

Grocery Outlet operates in the discount grocery sector through a model focused on “opportunistic buying.” Its centralized purchasing team sources excess and overstock inventory, brand-name products, and private label goods at substantial discounts that it then passes on to customers. The company’s hallmark is pricing that averages about 40% less than conventional grocers, attracting bargain-oriented shoppers looking for value.

The company’s distinct independent operator, or IO, model is central to its store operations. Most stores are run by local entrepreneurs who are responsible for ordering, merchandising, and staffing, and share profits with Grocery Outlet. As of December 28, 2024, 491 of 533 stores operated under this model. Recent strategic priorities have included expanding the store network, integrating newly acquired company-operated stores, increasing supply chain efficiency, and rolling out technology tools to support IOs and improve in-stock levels. Execution on these areas, coupled with maintaining its value-driven pricing promise and ongoing cost discipline, are key factors in Grocery Outlet’s longer-term performance.

Quarter in Review: Earnings Drivers and Operating Developments

The second quarter saw mixed results for Grocery Outlet. The company posted strong adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share, beating analyst forecasts by $0.06, a 34.5% upside surprise. This was driven by disciplined expense management, as reflected in adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) of $67.7 million, effectively flat with the prior year. However, net sales (GAAP), while up 4.5% from the prior year period, missed analyst consensus by $7.8 million. Comparable store sales, or “comps,” rose 1.1%, reflecting a 1.5% increase in transaction count, but were offset by a 0.4% decline in average basket size.

Gross margin slipped to 30.6% from 30.9% a year earlier. Management attributed the decline mainly to pricing adjustments on staple goods, a deliberate investment to maintain competitive value. Transaction growth remained a bright spot, but ongoing weakness in average ticket size indicates continued cautious consumer behavior and challenges in boosting each basket’s value, as seen in a 2.3% increase in transactions and a 2.0% decrease in average transaction size in Q1 FY2025, and a 1.5% increase in transactions with a 0.4% decrease in average transaction size in Q2 FY2025. The independent operator network benefited from the full rollout of a real-time order system, which increased distribution center fill rates from roughly 93% to above 99%. This tool provides IOs and planners with visibility into product availability and helps optimize store-level inventory, aiming to support better merchandising and basket building across the network.

The quarter was also defined by restructuring efforts. Grocery Outlet closed two stores and opened 11, ending with a total of 552 stores in the network. The company terminated 28 unopened store leases and canceled select capital-intensive projects. These actions, while incurring $11.2 million in one-time restructuring charges, are designed to improve long-term profitability and return on capital by concentrating new store investments where returns are highest. Integration of the United Grocery Outlet (UGO) acquisition is ongoing and is expected to continue into late 2026.

Capital expenditures before the impact of tenant improvement allowances were $65.2 million, an increase of $22.8 million over the second quarter of fiscal 2024. These investments focused on new store construction and technology and supply chain improvements. Net cash from operating activities improved sharply to $73.6 million, driven primarily by timing of payments. Interest expense (GAAP) rose to $6.54 million.

In terms of competitive position, Grocery Outlet continues to face intense price competition from big-box and discount chains, including Walmart and Safeway. Store traffic trends remained positive, but the negative trend in basket size suggests a need to rebalance pricing, assortment, and in-store experience. CEO Jason Potter commented that “when we look at it, it's items per basket. So there is an opportunity for us on a couple of fronts there to do some work.” The company continues to focus on store execution and cost discipline, but ongoing margin/traffic trade-offs and market share pressures remain key watch areas.

Financial Outlook and What Lies Ahead

Management updated its guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2025. However, the company raised its full-year diluted adjusted earnings per share (non-GAAP) guidance for FY2025 to a new range of $0.75 to $0.80, up from the previous range of $0.70 to $0.75. This adjustment reflects cost-saving efforts despite continued revenue pressure. Expectations for net new store openings remain steady, with a target of 33 to 35 stores for FY2025.

Grocery Outlet sees ongoing opportunities in expanding store count, supporting independent operators with new tools, and optimizing inventory and supply chain capabilities. However, average basket size, ongoing restructuring costs, and competitive pricing will need to be monitored closely. Investors should watch for continued shifts in comparable store sales composition, margin levels, and the company’s ability to translate rising store traffic into higher basket values. Guidance for fiscal 2025 continues to rely on disciplined expense management and capital allocation to drive efficiency and long-term earnings growth.

GO does not currently pay a dividend.

Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted.