Green Plains(GPRE 19.39%) reported a net loss of $72.2 million (GAAP) for the second quarter of 2025, including $44.9 million in non-cash charges, but achieved adjusted EBITDA of $16.4 million, up from $5 million in Q2 2024. The company executed strategic divestitures, advanced its decarbonization initiatives, and now forecasts over $150 million in annual EBITDA contribution from its Nebraska carbon capture projects in 2026. Key updates included stronger operating performance, significant cost reductions, and major policy tailwinds supporting future earnings growth.
Cost discipline and asset sales strengthen Green Plains
Green Plains delivered a $50 million annualized cost reduction through operational and SG&A efficiencies as of Q2 2025, while liquidating non-core assets such as the GP Ferrelson joint venture and Proventus, and recorded related non-cash charges. The exit from ethanol marketing for Darrelson occurred prior to the quarter, and placing Fairmont on care and maintenance reduced revenue by 10.7% year-over-year, reflecting renewed focus on high-performing core assets.
"During the quarter, we executed several non-core asset sales, including our GP Ferrelson joint venture, and Proventus and took an impairment on our Hopewell asset. While we took a non-cash charge for these items, it raised liquidity and eliminated time wasted on non-core activities and a drag on future earnings. We also completed a sale of RINs in the quarter that accumulated over the last several years. Combined, these actions bolstered our liquidity and reinforced our commitment to a disciplined capital allocation strategy and helped increase our focus on the core business."
— Michelle Mapes, Interim Principal Executive Officer and Chief Legal and Administration Officer
Streamlining the business and redeploying capital to core operations reduces organizational complexity and positions Green Plains to capitalize on sector tailwinds with a sharper, more efficient asset base.
Federal policy shift accelerates Green Plains carbon strategy
The July signing of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” extended the Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credit through 2029, making credits fully transferable and easing previously restrictive penalties and feedstock qualifications. Management estimates the updated policy will boost annualized EBITDA from its Nebraska carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects by at least $50 million for 2026 versus prior projections, reflecting materially improved carbon intensity (CI) scores for low-carbon ethanol.
"With the combination of efficiency gains and CI improvements at our plants, along with the policy changes, we believe our annualized EBITDA contribution from our decarbonization strategy will exceed $150 million for 2026 from our Advantage Nebraska plants alone (non-GAAP). Further, we expect all nine of our operating plans to qualify for the 45Z tax credits in 2026, which will provide additional upside to our projection."
— Michelle Mapes, Interim Principal Executive Officer and Chief Legal and Administration Officer
This sweeping regulatory change provides a unique, multi-year earnings catalyst that sharply increases the value of Green Plains' carbon capture investments, while also creating new monetization opportunities for clean fuel tax credits across its entire ethanol platform.
Operational execution drives record yields at Green Plains
Operational performance achieved 99% capacity utilization (up from 93.8% in 2024) and delivered Green Plains’ highest historical ethanol yields, with recurring annualized OpEx savings of $10 million driven by improvements in maintenance and recipe optimization. The Obion plant’s regenerative thermal oxidizer (RTO) project exceeded expectations, demonstrating capabilities for over 120 million gallons of annualized production and protein yields above 3.5 pounds per bushel.
"Continuous improvement is the mandate across our fleet of operating assets. We achieved 99% capacity utilization … Our plants produce the highest ethanol yields in Green Plains history. While operating at our second lowest quarterly OpEx cost since early 2023 … Our plant operations team has achieved OpEx reductions of $10 million on an annualized basis."
— Chris Ossowski, EVP Operations and Technology
Best-in-class plant performance and ongoing operational improvements directly enhance margin resilience and position Green Plains to capture upside from favorable corn, protein, and carbon market dynamics.
Looking Ahead
Management expects adjusted EBITDA in Q3 and Q4 2025 to be significantly higher, supported by mid-teens EBITDA margins in the back half of 2025 and an estimated $20 million to $25 million contribution in Q4 2025 from initial CCS monetization. Guidance for annualized $150 million EBITDA from carbon credits at Nebraska facilities in 2026 was reiterated, with further upside potential as all nine plants are expected to qualify for Section 45Z. The strategic review remains active, with all options, including company sale and asset divestitures, under consideration; a formal CEO appointment is anticipated imminently, and no new equity issuance is planned at this time.
