Image source: The Motley Fool.
Potlatch Corp (Holding Co)Â (PCH 1.38%)
Q3Â 2018 Earnings Conference Call
Oct. 29, 2018, 11:00 a.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good morning, my name is Angela and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PotlatchDeltic Third Quarter 2018 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Jerry Richards, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for opening remarks. Sir, you may proceed.
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Angela and good morning. Welcome to PotlatchDeltic's investor call and webcast covering our third quarter 2018 earnings. With me in the room are Mike Covey, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Eric Cremers, President and Chief Operating Officer. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements on our press release, on the presentation slides, and in our filings with the SEC concerning the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found on our website at www.potlatchdeltic.com. I'll now turn the call over to Mike for some comments and then I will cover our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook.
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Thank you, Jerry and good morning everyone. All three of our businesses continue to operate well and the Deltic merger that we completed in February continues to meet or exceed our expectations by nearly every measure. We generated $102 million of adjusted EBITDDA in the third quarter including $46 million (ph) contributed by Wood Products. We expect adjusted EBITDDA to exceed $300 million for the full year, almost 60% above any previous peak achieved by Potlatch since the Clearwater spin.
Speaking of the Deltic merger, I am pleased to announce that we have achieved our annual synergy target and we're at $51 million run rate as of the end of September. This is well ahead of schedule given that the goal was to hit the target by the end of 2019. No production levels have increased, harvesting has ramped-up, and Deltic was treated as a REIT effective with the merger close. There are still some integration work to be completed over the next few months, but most of the heavy lifting is complete.
Turning to lumber prices, the market has been in a free fall since lumber prices hit an all-time high record in June. While we expected a downward correction, the length and pace of decline have been a surprise and we believe that's inconsistent with market fundamentals. We expect lumber demand will continue to grow faster than supply and that industry operating rates will remain healthy. Factors on the demand side that give us confidence include a healthy rate of household formation, strong employment and wage growth, higher consumer and home builder confidence, and the fact that houses remain affordable relative to historic levels. It is important to keep in mind that there has been a significant amount of noise in the recent housing starts statistics including the effect of two major hurricanes and torrential rainfall in Texas, the largest home building market in the country. Single family housing units, which use about three times as much lumber as multifamily units, are up almost 5% year-over-year. In addition, the repair and remodel market segment should remain strong due to the old age of US housing stocks (ph) and strong home prices. The repair and remodel segment has been growing in the mid to high-single digits and accounts for about 40% of lumber demand, which is a bit more than new home construction.
On the supply side of the equation, it appears that Canadian producers have meaningfully reduced the supply overhang caused by transportation issues in the first quarter. Over the longer term, fiber availability will constrain Canada's ability to supply the US market. Continuing with the supply theme, it is well documented that lumber capacity additions in the US South will be measured. There are only two major sawmill equipment suppliers and each is requiring deposits to secure a place in line. As we think about the demand and supply dynamics, fundamentals appear much stronger than the current lumber pricing environment. We expect improvement once we move past what is seasonally the weakest part of the year as well as recent weather disruptions. Field inventories are low, which should support pricing recovery.
Turning to capital allocation, we have several ongoing initiatives. During the third quarter, we contributed $44 million to our pension plan to capture a tax benefit. We also announced a $3.54 per share special distribution at the end of August. This is associated with converting Deltic to a REIT and will be completed on November 15th. We estimate that 20% or $44 million will be paid in cash and the remainder in stock. In late August, our Board authorized a $100 million share repurchase. We did not purchase any shares in the third quarter before the open window period closed in mid-September. Today, we are trading at a significant discount to our net asset value. Our dividend payout ratio is around 55% of cash available for distribution on a last 12 month basis, excluding costs to achieve synergies. As we've mentioned on calls earlier this year, our Board will revisit the dividend in the fourth quarter. However, a share repurchase at our current price maybe a more attractive way to return capital to shareholders. I continue to be excited about PotlatchDeltic's prospects and believe that we have good runway ahead of us. I'll now turn it back to Jerry to discuss the quarter and then we'll take questions.
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Mike. I'll start with page four of the slides. Adjusted EBITDDA increased $7.6 million from $94.2 million in the second quarter to $101.8 million in the third quarter. The benefit of higher seasonal sawlog volumes in the north and increased lumber shipments were largely offset by the effect of weaker lumber prices and the sale of fewer real estate acres.
I'll now review each of our operating segments and provide more color on the third quarter results. Information for our Resource segment is displayed on slides five through seven. The segment's adjusted EBITDDA was $58.7 million in the third quarter, which is $15 million higher than the second quarter. We harvested 500,000 tons of sawlogs in the north in the third quarter. This is up seasonally from the 378,000 tons that were harvested in the second quarter when operating days are limited due to spring break-up. Northern sawlog prices were 6% higher on a per ton basis in the third quarter. The increase in our sawlog price realization mostly reflects seasonally lighter logs due to lower moisture content. Indexed log prices delivered through mid-August reflected higher lumber prices that existed in June. As a result, our mixed sawlog prices were flat on a volume or MBF basis in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.
Turning to the south, we harvested 978,000 tons in the quarter. This was down 135,000 tons compared to the second quarter. Unseasonably wet weather hampered operations in the third quarter while operating conditions were good in the second quarter. Our southern sawlog prices were 8% higher this quarter. Our southern sawlog price realizations typically increase in the third quarter due to seasonally higher hardwood sawlog harvest activity. The effect was muted this year as wet weather constrained our ability to harvest hardwood sawlogs in the third quarter. Southern pine sawlog prices were relatively flat quarter-over-quarter. Log and haul costs were $4.8 million higher in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. This was due to the net increase in harvest volumes in the north.
I'll now shift to Wood Products, which is covered on slides eight and nine. The segment's adjusted EBITDDA was $46.5 million, which is down $5 million compared to the second quarter. Lumber shipments increased 26 million board feet to 285 million board feet in the third quarter. We made progress on the shortfall caused by truck and rail issues in the second quarter and still expect to ship just over 1 billion board feet of lumber for the year. Our average lumber prices decreased 6% from $517 per thousand board feet in the second quarter to $486 per thousand board feet in the third quarter. Cost of sales for the lumber mills increased due to the higher shipment volumes. Adjusted EBITDDA related to our two panel mills decreased $1 million largely due to an annual maintenance shutdown at the MDF Plant.
I will now cover our Real Estate segment on slides 10 and 11. Real Estate's adjusted EBITDDA decreased $4.9 million in the third quarter. We closed on the sale of approximately 8,000 acres of non-strategic timberlands to a conservation entity for $900 per acre in the second quarter. A comparable transaction did not occur in the third quarter. As a result, sales activity declined from 11,571 acres of rural land in the second quarter to 3,160 acres in the third quarter. We believe there are significant rural real estate opportunities on the former Deltic timberlands and completed the first few Deltic rural property sales in the third quarter.
Turning to synergies and operational efficiencies on slide 12, excellent progress against our targets has occurred since the merger closed in February. As Mike mentioned, we have achieved our synergy target well ahead of schedule and we were at a run rate of $51 million at the end of September. Shifting to liquidity highlights presented on slide 13, we ended the quarter with $137.5 million of cash. We accelerated $44 million of future contributions to our pension plan in the third quarter. Doing so allowed us to claim this as a tax deduction at the higher 2017 corporate income tax rates. The tax benefit associated with this contribution comprised most of the $5.3 million reduction in income taxes that we recorded in the third quarter. Separately, we will distribute up to $44.4 million of cash to shareholders as part of a special distribution on November 15th. The remainder of the distribution will be in stock. The special distribution completes the conversion of Deltic's timber operations to REIT status. We are evaluating other uses of cash including a dividend increase, repurchasing our shares, investing in additional high-return projects in our mills, and acquisitions. In addition, we are considering refinancing our 7.5% debt that matures in 2019, which would reduce interest expense about $4 million per year at current interest rates. Capital expenditures were $12.5 million in the third quarter. We expect that capital expenditures will be in the range of $50 million to $55 million for the year.
The assumptions embedded in our fourth quarter outlook are included on slide 14. We expect fourth quarter Resource adjusted EBITDDA to be slightly less than half the third quarter amount due to lower harvest volumes and sawlog prices. We expect Wood Products adjusted EBITDDA in the fourth quarter to be materially lower than the third quarter. This assumes an average lumber price realization that is 15% to 20% lower than the third quarter and slightly lower lumber shipments. Our average lumber price was $375 per thousand board feet so far in the fourth quarter, which is 22% lower than the third quarter. We believe that prices are nearing a bottom and will slowly work their way higher in November and December. We estimate that Real Estate's fourth quarter adjusted EBITDDA will be significantly higher than the amount generated by this segment in the third quarter. Most of the year's development lot sales are planned to occur in the fourth quarter.
2018 has been a tremendous year despite the correction in lumber prices. We closed the Deltic merger in the first quarter and achieved our $50 million synergy run rate target ahead of schedule. The expanded footprint provided the opportunity to generate what we would expect will be just over $300 million of adjusted EBITDDA for the year. Finally, a strong balance sheet provides the flexibility to return cash to shareholders and invest in our businesses. That concludes our prepared remarks. Angela, I'd now like to open the call up to Q&A.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Babcock with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
John Babcock -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Hey, good morning. Just wanted to quickly follow-up on the capital allocation topic here. What is the company's latest thinking on capital allocation priorities including share repurchases, particularly given where the stock is trading right now?
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
John, its Mike. As I mentioned, our Board authorized a $100 million repurchase program at the 1st of September. The open window period closed on us in mid-September. So we were not able to execute a buyback in the third quarter. That's become an even more attractive opportunity in fourth quarter with the decline in our share price. We believe we trade significantly below net asset value today whether it's our own estimates or that of the analyst community. So certainly the share buyback is a high priority. We've always said we'd look at a dividend increase in the fourth quarter, which remains an important component of how a REIT returns capital to shareholders. So I think those two things are still top of mind. We talked about acquisitions broadly, but I think our focus there would just be small bolt-on acquisitions, nothing major.
John Babcock -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Okay, thank you. And then I was wondering more on the topic of lumber and pricing trends and the fundamentals there. If you could talk first about -- first of all about where inventory is standing in the supply chain now versus where they were about a month or two ago and then also just generally how market conditions look right now and what you think it will take for lumber prices to change direction?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, John, this is, Eric. Well our sense of it and talking to our customers is that inventories in the supply chain are relatively low levels, yet there's plenty of demand and order books are relatively strong. I think there is a forest products conference that RISI had out in San Francisco here not too long ago and they reported that inventories were at incredibly low levels, half month of supply compared to what typically might be 1.5 months of supply. So our sense of it is that inventories are relatively low, which gives us optimism going forward that once the seasonal slowdown in housing turns the corner and demand picks back up again that order books with them being strong, we'll get some firming of prices here. You're also starting to see some curtailments out in the West, several mills have announced downtime, which ought to help the supply/demand balance. So like most pundits who were forecasting prices are up I think 10% Q1 versus Q4, that's roughly our outlook as well. So we think we're, as Jerry said earlier, we're at or near the bottom in lumber prices and we think we're about to turn the corner.
John Babcock -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Okay, thanks for that. And then just what was the impact of transportation constraints on Wood Products during the quarter?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, the impact of transportation constraints in Q3 was almost small, very, very modest. It really hit us the hardest in Q2 when we had rail issues and trucking issues. Trucks are still expensive. There's still a shortage of trucking capacity, but now that the produce season is behind us, things have eased quite a bit. So transportation wasn't a huge issue in Q3.
John Babcock -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
And then last question before I turn it over, just want to get a sense for how northern sawlog pricing might have trended during the quarter if it weren't for the decline in lumber pricing. Just to kind of -- just any sort of ballpark would be helpful there.
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, the lumber pricing is what drives our northern sawlog prices and so it's hard to -- you really can't exclude that impact. There is a normal seasonal impact due to the fact that logs, they are heavier as you get into the winter time. So that seasonal impact from the weather issue alone is about 6% comparing Q4 to Q3. There is also a lag in how that index pricing arrangement works with lumber prices, it's about a 1.5 month price lag. So as lumber prices declined, it doesn't really show up in lower log prices until you are about 1.5 month down the road. So we've now seen the significant drop in lumber prices. It started really to happen in mid-August or so. So that's now going to start finding its way to northern sawlogs in Q4.
John Babcock -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
And your next right question is from Collin Mings with Raymond James.
Collin Mings -- Raymond James & Associates, Inc. -- Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. First question from me just on the synergies target. Congratulations on hitting the goal there, but can you maybe just update us on the additional opportunities you've identified? I think on the last call, you kind of touched on maybe an additional $8 million to $10 million of annual opportunities beyond that $50 million target. So maybe just talk a little bit more about the additional opportunities you've identified and kind of what we could think about as far as potential impact from those?
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, so, Collin, our additional operational synergy total still are in that $8 million to $10 million range. We're very happy with what we're seeing with Deltic. Hopefully, that came across loud and clear in the commentary, but we're really focused on those four primary synergy buckets, but some of the additional synergies that we're seeing. There are things like the Waldo mill had been sending its shavings to our MDF mill. There was a vertical integration strategy at Deltic that we have now kind of unwound. We're all about margin. We're now sending those shavings to Drax (ph), that's $150,000 a year of incremental margin. There were some discounting to move volume out of their mills that was taking place. It was easy on the sales force, but we've unwound those discounts and our sales team is working it harder. That's about $1.5 million of synergies. Broadly speaking, our log and haul costs in 2018 versus 2017 in the south are going to be down anywhere from 4% to 5% per ton. That 4% to 5% per ton is about $1 a ton across 4 million tons call it, that's about $4 million. So we're very optimistic about all these -- individually, they are relatively small synergies, but collectively, they do total that $8 million to $10 million, so we are very happy.
Collin Mings -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Okay and then maybe tying that together just on an opportunity you've identified, maybe just on capital allocation. I know it's early yet to be talking too much about 2019, but as you think about capital expenditures and kind of referencing that earlier in terms of the capital allocation strategy looking at high-return projects, any early sense on how we should maybe think about capex next year relative to this year?
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
We'll go through our budgets here in the month of December, reviewing with our Board and provide guidance on that on the Q4 earnings call.
Collin Mings -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Okay, fair enough. Moving back to lumber pricing and I know that we've discussed this in the past, but maybe just walk us a little bit through just the pricing recognized in the quarter and obviously that was materially better than Random Lengths tracked during the quarter, how much of that was just the timing of kind of what was shipped and the order filed versus product mix. Any sense you can give us on that front?
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, so, Collin, what I'd tell you is that Random Lengths in the quarter dropped 13% 14%. Our reported prices GAAP basis dropped about 6%. So we did much better than Random Lengths, but as you know, Random Lengths is spot pricing and our pricing, we're always selling anywhere from one to four weeks out into the future. So there's a lag effect there. I think virtually all of that delta between us and Random Lengths in the quarter was due to this lag effect. There is a mix effect, but the mix effect is across all kinds of different product categories wides, narrows, southern yellow pine, studs, MSR. It's really hard to isolate what is the mix effect. So I would just say together, we're going to go up and down with Random Lengths, but we're going to tend to lag Random Lengths by several weeks.
Collin Mings -- Raymond James & Associates, Inc. -- Analyst
Okay, appreciate the color there and then, Jerry, I may have missed it but just pretty healthy pricing on the HBU development acreage in the quarter, what was driving that?
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, so in terms of, Collin, in the script, I mentioned that there was -- we had closed our first few sales off of former Deltic timberlands. So we had kind of a small acres, but it sold $9,000 (ph) an acre. So just an indication again that we have some great opportunities there.
Collin Mings -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Okay. I'll turn it over. Thanks guys.
Operator
And your next question is from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.
Ketan Mamtora -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst
Good morning. First question I want to come back to this capital allocation again. Just one clarification, on the debt that's maturing next year, would it be fair to say that refi is probably more likely than permanently paying off at this point or it is too early to say?
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, Ketan, this is Jerry. So I think over time, we've talked about either paying a portion or all of that debt or refinancing and I think as you step back and you look at where we're trading, as Mike mentioned a couple times now, a share repurchase looks pretty attractive. So I think given where interest rates are at, a chance to lock it in for the long term as well as other capital allocation priorities, we would lean toward refinancing at this point and that's one of the capital allocation points that we'll discuss with our Board here in the fourth quarter.
Ketan Mamtora -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst
Got it. That's very helpful. And then turning to lumber prices, I've noticed that the wider grades of southern yellow pine have come under much more pressure than the benchmark the wide four (ph) grades. What in your view is driving that because the difference now is quite wide.
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Well, that's -- Eric can add color to it, but it's those wider product widths, the two by eights and others, a lot of that goes into the treated market more than trusses or other things and it's just a seasonal issues, Eric can you give more color.
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, I would say that's exactly those larger wides, they also compete with things like Ijoist. So their upside is limited, but it's really this time of the year is just due to normal seasonality with wides not being in demand.
Ketan Mamtora -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst
Got it and then what are you seeing in terms of cedar prices right now?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, prices have rolled over a little bit compared to where they were last year. We hit record prices last year, really high levels. That incremental pricing stimulated incremental supply to come out of the woods so to speak. So we are seeing cedar come down a little bit but still we're really healthy levels for cedar sawlogs.
Ketan Mamtora -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst
Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over. Good luck next quarter and into '19.
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Thank you.
Operator
Your next question is from Chip Dillon with Vertical Research.
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Hi, Salvator Tiano filling in for Chip, how are you?
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Good morning.
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Hi, so my first question, if you can a little bit elaborate in more detail how should we expect sawlog prices in the north to move in relationship to the lumber index you are tracking. I think you mentioned many times it's not the Random Lengths index but as we see this index going down 20%, 30% in (ph) the quarter, how should we think about the average northern sawlog price moving in Q4?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, we're really our northern sawlogs are tied to WWPA and to some extent, Random Lengths. It's a very, very complicated formula, but I think as you see WWPA or Random Lengths which those two together will move up and down over time. As you see those prices roll over, there is about a 1.5 month lag from when it shows up in our sawlog prices. So that's the simplest way to think of it. If prices stop falling today, you wouldn't see it show up in a lower sawlog price for about 1.5 months.
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Assuming we are kind of adjusting a little bit for that and we see a 20% decline in the average sawlog price would be also in the ballpark as a correct assumption?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, I think in general, if you see Random Lengths drop 20%, eventually that 20% will show up in northern sawlog prices with a lag of about 1.5 months.
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Okay, perfect. The second question is a little bit, we saw a little bit on Friday from one of your competitors, they mentioned on their western timberland's there was some softness in pricing and harvest. I know you are not (ph) in the same area, but on the margin, some areas could be supplied by both regions and are you seeing any pressure coming from that dynamic or could that happen in Q4?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
No, we're in the inland region here and really we're separate from the west side. I mean we're influenced by western lumber prices for sure, but what happens on the West Coast particularly as it relates to export markets will not impact us here in Idaho.
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Perfect, OK and one last question if you -- you spoke a little bit about the lumber market. I just wanted to get a little bit your thoughts given what has happened, are you seeing first of all, the potential for some of these new lumber mills these projects to not come on line first of all, and secondly, as we talk about your lumber footprint, what is approximately, if you have and if you can disclose your breakeven lumber price across your mill system?
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Well, regarding the announced capacity additions in the industry, I don't expect that any of those are going to be canceled. Certainly lumber prices have rolled over, but southern log prices have not gone up, so margins in the south are still quite strong. So almost all of the capacity additions are in the US south. So, I'd be very surprised if we see any kind of cancellations and further to that, our view is we've got a very seasonally weak fourth quarter due to lots of different factors, but we're still very bullish on the long-term outlook for lumber here as we move into the first quarter of 2019 and beyond. And in terms of breakeven prices, that's something that we don't disclose.
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Okay, thank you very much.
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Yes, that's good. Thanks.
Operator
And your next question is from Steve Chercover with Davidson.
Steve Chercover -- Davidson -- Analyst
Thanks, good morning everyone. So, also a couple of questions on Wood Products. First of all it is about freight actually, I don't know whether you guys operate or own your own rolling stock, but are you aware of any increased investment or supply of centerbeams by the railroads and is there any reason to believe that absent hope or weather, we shouldn't see a third straight year of rail and transportation snafus.
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, see, we do not own our own rolling stock. I think transportation is going to continue to be an issue over time, particularly on the trucking side and as it relates to rail, we are working with Union Pacific who is our carrier in the south and that's where we've had the bulk of our rail issues, working closely with them to increase supply of cars and we're exploring the possibility of a new spur at our Waldo mill, which could help ease things quite a bit. We've not vetted that project yet, so it's premature, but we're doing what we can to ease some of these transportation pressures.
Steve Chercover -- Davidson -- Analyst
But I mean, it would be great if you had the spur, unless they've got the rolling stock then it really doesn't change things?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, correct, but if we have another spur, they'll deliver us more cars.
Steve Chercover -- Davidson -- Analyst
Okay and then, I wanted to clarify with -- down at Waldo and Ola, both of those are now running with their second shifts?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, they are running with their second shifts and we're very happy with their performance. They are expected to beat their budgets for the year by $10 million. Budget for the year was what we had established for synergies. So we're very happy with the performance of those mills.
Steve Chercover -- Davidson -- Analyst
So should we think of your nameplate capacity I guess for 2019 at about 1.1 billion board feet to 1.2 billion board feet?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, it's still early, we haven't gone through the budgeting process yet, but I would expect roughly 4% or 5% increase over 2018 levels to be a reasonable assumption, which would put you up at around 1.1 billion board feet.
Steve Chercover -- Davidson -- Analyst
Thanks for that. And then, we don't really talking much about the plywood or the OSB, sorry the MDF, but can you just give us maybe run rate of contribution for those two businesses? I think at one stage, I had the Deltic (ph) had an annual EBITDDA of about $8 million.
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, we don't break out those results separately, but what I would tell you is our plywood mill is a great mill, it produces industrial plywood as you know. Those are high performance, high margin products into the boat industry, the RV industry, furniture frame that sort of thing and we have got a great industrial plywood business. Our MDF business, although we do produce some thin board with our MDF mill, it's a little bit more of a commodity, but yet margins are relatively stable in that industry. Doesn't have near the volatility that we find in lumber. So we're happy with both those mills.
Operator
And your last question is from Paul Quinn with RBC Capital.
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
Just a question you mentioned the long haul was down $1.10 (ph), just wondering how you are able to achieve that, is that just scale or because I suspect there's annual inflation on the employment side?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, you raise a good point Paul. It's not just typical inflation, it is also diesel costs are up $0.50 a gallon year-over-year. So we're fighting both inflation and wages and equipment and what not, but also in fuel costs. What I'd tell you how we're able to get it is by optimizing route structures for the most part. So, let me give you a simple example, so Bradley County where our Warren mill sets, Deltic owned a significant amount of timber ground. Deltic was harvesting off their own ground and with their vertical integration strategy, they we're hauling those logs across the state to their Waldo mill. Well, we have that Warren mill right in Bradley County. So rather than haul the I don't know 80 miles to get to the Waldo mill, haul it 10 miles to get to the Warren mill. That's a simple example of how we're able to capture log and haul synergies. I would also tell you that in general each organization, it seemed like specialized in long-haul versus short-haul contracts. So we're comparing each other's contracts and we're implementing best practices if you will to capture those haul synergies. Is that helpful?
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
Yes, that's pretty helpful. Maybe just moving on to timber. We've seen interest rates coming up, what are you seeing in timber markets, especially in the US?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, we just closed on a couple of thousand acre acquisition here a couple of weeks ago and I'd tell you discount rates are -- we think we got a very attractive transaction here, it was a 6% discount rate, but with some 1031 (ph) lifetime exchange tax benefits, it turns out to be about a 9% discount rate. So I don't know that anything has materially changed though if you compare to where we were a year or 2 ago. We also lost a transaction a couple of months ago that had what we think was a discount rate of 3.5%. So timber is still a highly sought after asset in the south in particular.
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
What is driving that strong demand in the US. I mean it's obviously got to be disappointing over the last decade, we haven't seen any material increase in sawlog prices on the selling on the pine side. So what is driving that demand?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, you're right, there haven't been any price increases over the last decade. It has disappointed industry observers, but we talked about it a little bit earlier, there is a lot of mill capacity that's going to be coming online in the next who knows, two, three, four years. Our estimates that sawlog demand is going to go up anywhere from 15 million tons to 20 million tons per year, that should put the south back into supply/demand balance and when that does, you'll see price movements. The same opportunity isn't there on the West Coast or in other parts of the country. I think that's where the opportunity is in the US south.
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
Okay and just lastly, just on the lumber, just trying to understand a slide, what's your current -- is your current order file like more than a week right now or --
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Well, it varies a lot by mill. I mean, we've got -- our one mill I know is got prompt deliveries. You call today, we'll put her on truck, it will be out the door later in the afternoon. I tell you that our southern mills are more out one to two weeks, so it varies by mill.
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
So that lag that we saw in Q3, I mean that should be a shorter lag in Q4, is that the way to think about it?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
I'm not sure I understand your question.
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
Well, I suspect that lag is because of your order file and you probably had a longer order file in Q3 than you might have in Q4, so I'm just trying to just understand that?
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Yes, that's correct.
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
All right, that's all I had. Best of luck guys. Thanks.
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
Thanks, Paul.
Operator
And we have no further questions.
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
All right, thank you, Angela and I appreciate everybody's interest in PotlatchDeltic. I will be available for detailed modeling questions rest of the day and that's a wrap for our third quarter earnings call.
Operator
This does conclude today's conference. You may now disconnect.
Duration: 37 minutes
Call participants:
Jerald W. Richards -- Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael J. Covey -- Chairman and CEO
John Babcock -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst
Eric J. Cremers -- President, COO & Director
Collin Mings -- Raymond James & Associates, Inc. -- Analyst
Collin Mings -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Ketan Mamtora -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst
Salvator Tiano -- Vertical Research -- Analyst
Steve Chercover -- Davidson -- Analyst
Paul Quinn -- RBC Capital -- Analyst
Transcript powered by AlphaStreet
This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.
