TRI Pointe Group Inc (TPH) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

TPH earnings call for the period ending December 31, 2018.

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TRI Pointe Group Inc  (NYSE:TPH)
Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call
Feb. 26, 2019, 10:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings and welcome to TRI Pointe Group's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Chris Martin, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Chris Martin -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning and welcome to TRI Pointe Group's earnings conference call. Earlier today, the Company released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2018. Documents detailing these results, including a slide deck under the Presentations tab, are available on the Company's Investor Relations website at www.tripointegroup.com.

Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made in the course of this call, which are not historical facts, including statements concerning future financial and operating performance, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A discussion of such risks and uncertainties and other important factors that could cause actual financial and operating results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, are detailed in the Company's filings made with the SEC, including in its most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no duty to update these forward-looking statements that are made during the course of this call. Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this conference call. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP can be accessed through TRI Pointe's website and in its filings with the SEC.

Hosting the call today is Doug Bauer, the Company's Chief Executive Officer; Mike Grubbs, the Company's Chief Financial Officer; and Tom Mitchell, the Company's Chief Operating Officer and President.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Doug.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Chris, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call today. 2018 was an excellent year for TRI Pointe Group as the Company achieved several milestones, and posted record results in a number of key financial metrics. We eclipsed the $3 billion mark in home sales revenue for the first time in our Company's 10-year history, by delivering a record 5,071 homes at an average sales price of $640,000.

We generated homebuilding gross margin of 21.8%, representing a 130 basis point improvement from the previous year. These improvements to both revenue and margins coupled with the benefit of a lower tax rate resulted in diluted earnings per share of $1.81 for the year, a 50% increase over 2017.

During 2018, we continue to pursue our long-term growth objectives, with our organic start in the Carolinas, and the acquisition of the Dallas-Fort Worth based builder in December. While our full-year results underscore the strength of our operations and the appeal of our home offerings, the market as a whole, experienced a slowdown in the second half of 2018, as years of cumulative home price appreciation combined with a sharp rise in mortgage rates created a more challenging demand environment for our industry. The weaker order trends we experienced in the third quarter carried into the fourth quarter, as potential buyers continue to exercise caution with their home purchase decision, which resulted in a 15% decrease in our backlog units at year-end 2018. We believe slowdown such as this are normal occurrences over the course of a housing cycle and do not feel we are headed for a prolonged downturn given the strong underlying fundamentals of our industry and our economy.

Beginning in January, we have seen a sequential increase in demand and a weekly improvement in orders through February. With that said, we realize that the housing market has changed, and we have taken steps to adjust to this new reality while maintaining our focus on what's best for our shareholders and our Company over the long term.

We continue to make a concerted effort to reduce costs -- we further reduced our input costs and overhead expenses in an effort to keep our cost structure in line with today's demand environment. This meant renegotiating terms with land sellers, vendors, trade partners and suppliers and tasking our department heads to lower costs and in some cases, reducing headcount. While these are difficult actions to take, they were necessary in light of the current demand environment. Additionally, we continue to value engineer our homes in an effort to lower the total cost of construction.

Our land underwriting criteria continues to incorporating more conservative and disciplined approach. In some cases, perspective land deals maybe land bank and/or ventured with our builder partners to reduce capital and improve our risk-adjusted return. As we continue to focus on our operational excellence along with disciplined land and land development activity, we expect to generate significant cash flow from operations, which we will use to reduce our leverage, buyback shares or make opportunistic land purchases or M&A activity in the future. As part of our operational excellence program, we have implemented our 12-point sales and marketing performance program to achieve our demand and pricing objective.

In today's challenging new home market, we are laser focused on being more effective at lead conversion by creating an emotional connection with our entry level, move-up, luxury, and active adult buyers. We continue to focus on building our premium lifestyle brand in each of our markets. This type of reputation takes years to cultivate and it starts with building quality homes with an emphasis on design and innovation in locations where people want to live while providing an excellent customer experience. We have differentiated our product at every segment of the market, which reinforces our status among homebuyers as a premium lifestyle builder. Mike will share some of these successes in his remarks.

In short, the recent market softness has prompted us to reexamine our business in a number of ways: land development, direct and indirect building costs, sales and marketing, and land acquisition strategies are all getting increased scrutiny, which is a healthy exercise in any market environment. We continue to be positive about the long-term outlook for our industry, and are in a great position to capitalize on its future. With the strength of our balance sheet, our differentiated premium brand focus, and our seasoned leadership team, we are confident of our continued growth and success.

With that I'd like to turn it over to Mike for more details on the numbers.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Thanks, Doug. Good morning, and welcome everyone to today's call. I'm going to highlight some of our results and key financial metrics for the fourth quarter and full year ending December 31, 2018, and then finish my remarks with our expectations and outlook for the first quarter and full year 2019. At times, I'll be referring to certain information from our slide deck posted on our website that Chris mentioned earlier.

Slide 6 of the earnings call slide deck provides some of the financial and operational highlights from our fourth quarter. Home sales revenue was $1.1 billion on 1,727 homes delivered at an average sales price of $649,000. Our homebuilding gross margin percentage for the quarter was 21.9%, and our SG&A expense as a percentage of homes sales revenue was 9.1%. Net income came in at $99 million or $0.70 per diluted share. Our fourth quarter net income included a $17.5 million charge for a legal settlement related to litigation that we have previously disclosed in our SEC filings, involving a lawsuit filed by Scripps Health in connection with the Pardee Homes land sales that occurred in 1987. In addition, we incurred transaction expenses related to the acquisition of a Dallas-Fort Worth based builder that closed in December. Excluding these expenses, adjusted net income was $113 million or $0.79 per diluted share.

Slide 7 of the earnings call slide deck provides some of the financial and operational highlights for the full year 2018. Home sales revenue was $3.2 billion on 5,071 homes delivered at an average sales price of $640,000. Our homebuilding gross margin percentage for the year was 21.8%, and our SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue was 10.6%. Net income came in at $270 million or $1.81 per diluted share. Excluding the legal settlement and transaction expenses I previously mentioned, adjusted net income was $284 million or $1.90 per diluted share.

For the quarter, net new home orders were down 24% on a year-over-year basis, on a 2% increase in average selling communities. Our overall absorption rate for the fourth quarter was 2.1 homes per community per month, which was below last year's fourth quarter pace of 2.8. For the full year, our absorption rate was 3.0 homes per community per month.

As for our active selling communities, during the fourth quarter, we opened 18 new communities; 14 in California, and one each in Arizona, Colorado, Texas, and Washington. Of the 14 new communities opened in California during the quarter, 12 are from our long-term California assets. Since opening those communities in the middle of the fourth quarter, we sold 36 homes as sales prices from $300,000 at Altis, our 700 unit active adult community located in Beaumont, 61 homes at sales prices from $500,000 at Skyline, out 1200-unit master plan in Santa Clarita, and a 114 homes at sales prices from $1.1 million at Pacific Highlands Ranch in San Diego. We should start to see deliveries from these projects in the second half of 2019, which will benefit our homebuilding gross margins as our long-term California assets deliver margins well above the Company average.

In addition to our 18 new communities, we added 14 active selling communities in Dallas-Fort Worth with our acquisition at the end of December. We closed out of 11 communities during the quarter, resulting ending active selling community count of 146. Our active selling communities at the end of the year as shown by state on Slide 8.

We ended the fourth quarter with 1,335 homes in backlog, which was a 15% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. The average sales price in backlog increased 2% to $672,000, and total dollar value of our backlog decreased 13% year-over-year to $897 million. During the fourth quarter, we converted 82% of our third quarter ending backlog delivering 1,727 homes which was a 2% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. Approximately 46% of our deliveries for the quarter came from California, including 18% from our long-term California asset. Our average sales price of homes delivered was $649,000, up 2% from the same quarter last year. This resulted in home sales revenue for the fourth quarter of $1.1 billion, which was consistent with the same quarter last year.

Our homebuilding gross margin percentage for the fourth quarter was 21.9%, an increase of 20 basis points compared to the same quarter last year. Our homebuilding gross margin increased in 10 of our 12 operating divisions with deliveries for the quarter on a year-over-year basis. For the fourth quarter, SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue was 9.1%, an increase of 190 basis points compared to 7.2% for the same period in 2017, primarily due to the impact of ASC 606 higher selling costs and costs associated with the expansion into the Carolinas, Sacramento and Dallas-Fort Worth market.

During the fourth quarter, we invested $41 million in land acquisition and $79 million in land development. For the full year, we invested in aggregate total of $883 million in land acquisition and land development. At the quarter-end, we owned or controlled approximately 27,740 lots. Based on our full year 2018 deliveries, the number of years of lots owned or controlled is 5.5. The detailed breakdown of our lots owned will be reflected in our annual report on Form 10-K, which will be filed later this week. In addition, there is a summary of lots owned or controlled by state on Page 31 in the slide deck.

Turning now to the balance sheet, at year-end, we had approximately $3.2 billion of real estate inventory. Our total outstanding debt was $1.4 billion, resulting a ratio of debt to capital of 40.7% and the ratio of net debt to net capital of 35.5%. For the full year 2018, we generated $310 million in cash flow from operations and ended the quarter with $846 million of liquidity, consisting of $278 million of cash on hand and $568 million available under our unsecured revolving credit facility.

With respect to our stock repurchase program, for the quarter, we repurchased 541,000 shares for an aggregate dollar amount of $6.7 million. For the full year, the Company repurchased approximately 10 million shares for a total aggregate dollar amount of $146 million. Last week, on February 21st, we replaced our previously stock repurchase program with a new $100 million authorization that will expire in March 2020.

Now, I'd like to summarize our outlook for the first quarter and full year 2019. For the first quarter 2019, the Company expects to open nine new communities and close out seven communities, resulting in a 148 active selling communities as of March 31, 2019. In addition, the Company anticipates delivering 55% to 60% of its 1,335 homes in backlog as of December 31, 2018 at an average sales price of $600,000. Company expects its homebuilding gross margin percentage to be approximately 16% for the first quarter. The decrease in homebuilding gross margin percentage compared to the previous quarters as a result of a lower mix of deliveries from California and more specifically a lower mix from our long-term California assets, higher incentives on inventory homes at year-end and purchase accounting adjustments related to the acquisition of the Dallas-Fort Worth build. Due the low number of homes expected to close in the first quarter, the Company anticipates its SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue will be in a range of 15% to 16%. Lastly, the Company expects its effective tax rate to be in a range of 25% to 26%.

For the full year, assuming similar market conditions to what the Company is currently experiencing, we anticipate delivering between 4,600 and 5,000 homes at an average sales price of $610,000 to $620,000. In addition, the Company expects its homebuilding gross margin to be in a range of 19% to 20% for the full year with a higher mix of deliveries from our California assets in the third and fourth quarter of 2019. Finally, the Company expects our full-year SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue will be in the range of 11% to 12%. The Company expects its effective tax rate for the full year to be in the range of 25% to 26%.

I'd now like to turn the call back over to Doug for some closing remarks.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mike. In conclusion, I'm very proud of our Company's performance in 2018. We set records in a number of key operating metrics. At year-end, our book value per share increased over 17% year-over-year to $14.52 per share, which is a testament to the earnings growth generated from our homebuilding operations. I'm also extremely proud of how far our Company has come over the last 10 years, from a small start up in 2009 to a national builder with an annual revenues in excess of $3 billion. While there is some uncertainty regarding the near-term outlook for our industry, we continue to have confidence in the long-term trajectory of our Company.

We believe that we can double our revenues over the next 10 years while continuing to maintain strong operating margin. Our goal is to increase market share in our existing divisions and manage smart growth in our early stage divisions, which includes Sacramento, Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and the Carolinas. Lastly, we will utilize our strong financial position to expand our geographic presence through organic expansion and/or acquisition. Our leadership team has been through several housing cycles and knows how to compete in difficult market environment, as well as identify opportunities when they arise. This experience coupled with our strong balance sheet and strategic focus gives me great confidence in the future of TRI Pointe Group.

Finally, I'd like to thank our team members for their contributions to another great year. While the road ahead maybe less certain than in years past, I know we have the right people in place to successfully achieve our long-term goals.

That concludes our prepared remarks and now we'd like to open it up for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Stephen East with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Stephen East -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Thank you and good morning, guys. You know -- Doug, maybe you can talk a little bit about what the trends you all were seeing from a demand perspective as you moved through the fourth quarter and maybe a little bit more detail on what you all were seeing in January and February and I guess specifically there, I'm wondering also about incentives -- have you been able to back off incentives as we've entered the new year versus what was going on in the fourth quarter.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, hi, Stephen. I'll let Mike talk about the incentive percentage, but overall, as we indicated, I mean, the second half of 2018, fourth quarter with the combination of interest rate fears and some affordability concerns definitely slowed the absorption pace; I think you saw that in our numbers. So it's pretty self explanatory and every builders had the same result. So it's -- we going through changing market conditions, which is for 30 years in the business is very normal as I indicated. Obviously, the Fed took their foot off the pedal a little bit on interest rates.

I guess will probably all say that has some contributing factor to some of the success in the first seven weeks of this year. Every week seems to be getting stronger. We've had some very strong openings in Phoenix, as we mentioned; everybody likes to talk about our California portfolio between Altis at an average from sales price of $300,000, which is our active adult all the way up to $1.1 million to $2 million down at Pacific Highlands Ranch. We're selling homes at a very good pace; up at Skyline Ranch, we have the ability in the luxury because of our land basis to produce more affordable price point and that's been partly contributing to our success of Skyline at prices of $500,000.

So, overall, I mean, one of the reasons why we gave guidance for the year compared to both our competitors is what we feel right now is, OK, here, it's not going be great, it's going to be a grind, but we're pretty excited about it. We got a great team, we got a great brand that continues to differentiate itself. So that's why we gave the guidance, and if the market turns -- makes a u turn then we will tell you all about that the next quarter or two, but right now, we're feeling pretty positive that to be honest it is I'm not going to get to above (ph) test my skis though.

Stephen East -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Fair enough. Fair enough. And on the incentives?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes. Stephen, it's Mike. On the incentives, so for the units that we delivered in the fourth quarter, our incentives ran about 4.6% of our home sales revenue, which is up about 130 basis points from the third quarter, and then currently sitting in backlog our incentives about 3.5% and we came that back off slightly as we moved into January and February.

Stephen East -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Okay. Yes, that's exactly what I was looking for. Thanks. And then as you look at your gross margin, your fourth quarter -- what drove that big beat in the fourth quarter, and it sounds like both from what you did in the fourth quarter and what you just now talked about it, a fair amount of conservatism in your guidance for this year, but I didn't know if there was anything in particular that was going to weigh on your gross margins and thus the guidance of '19 to '20?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, I mean, it's a good question. Maybe instead of saying conservative I'd say maybe our guidance is a little cautious from that perspective since we're seven weeks into the year so far. But, yes, the first quarter is obviously very tough, what drove that is really the pull forward of a lot of deliveries in California in the fourth quarter. Typically, we average anywhere from around 38% to 42% of our deliveries in California, and for the fourth quarter, we delivered around 46%. So we're able to pull forward a lot of those high-margin, high-ASP projects that we sold in the first half of the year when orders were so strong. Correspondingly, California was difficult on an order perspective on the back half of the year, so our first half of the year is a tough comp for us because we closed very few units in California, and even more specifically those long-term California assets.

Having said that, we've had good success as we mentioned on our call with some of the long-term California assets those with 12 model complexes that we opened right at the end of last year and so that should help our margins going forward. I mean, just to give you some perspective even though our margins are 16% in the first quarter, we are currently sitting with almost 1,700 units in backlog. This is at the end of January and our margins are at 21.3%. So we have pretty good conviction in where our margins going in the back half of the year to offset kind of a tough start in the first quarter.

Stephen East -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Yes, that's perfect. That's what I was looking for. Thanks a lot guys.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Thanks, Stephen.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Alan Ratner -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst

Hi guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So I was hoping to dig in a little bit just get an update on the margin profile of some of those long-dated California assets. I know in the past you've kind of highlighted that there obviously well above Company average, I think roughly 30% is the number you gave about a year ago, maybe a little bit less than that. I'm just curious with the market conditions as you described in the softer sales environment, when you look at maybe those 1,700 homes in backlog of the ones that are in the long-dated communities, is that 30% still a good number to think about or have you seen out-sized pressure there given California is a little bit softer today?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Actually, Alan -- this is Mike. I mean, I think the numbers maybe slightly higher than that by around 35%. And a lot of that based on the strength of Pacific Highlands Ranch. We clearly had some successful openings there and a high amount of deliveries, 110 units coming from ASPs that are between $1 million and $2 million and we have a very low basis there.

Alan Ratner -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst

Got it. So, I guess first follow-up on that, Mike, if you can maybe just quantify what the other communities outside of Highlands look like? But then just a bigger picture question then, several of your competitors have kind of made this line in the sand comment that we're going to deliver this too many homes in 2019 regardless of market conditions and obviously that could have negative implications for margins if demand remains choppy, but it would seem like with your land pipeline, if you wanted to, you could push a little bit harder on those projects and get more volume and not really have that big of an impact on margin given they are well above average. So can you just talk a little bit about the thought process there, whether that's come into your strategy at all?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, Alan. This is Tom. We've certainly had a lot of discussion about that and we do have the benefit of those long-dated assets and the margins that we have there. So we are constantly trying to optimize our performance and manage that price and pace equation. So, we continually look at that and I think we've got the right recipe until (ph) right now and we'll continue to monitor as we go forward.

Stephen East -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

But safe to say there hasn't been any major changes to that strategy year-to-date, right?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

No, no changes.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I'd add Alan, I mean, like Tom said, I mean, we look at each project as we roll up for the business plan. Obviously, the long-dated assets in California have above average margin profile that Tom or Mike just mentioned and we obviously are managing to a profit and pace scenario, whereas you may have a project that you bought two years ago and the margin profile is less and you're going to want to move that a little quicker. So they all have different case studies. I mean, we literally go to each project and manage them that way, and obviously, the California assets, I know lot of people get concerned about California, but we're very blessed to have very strong assets in California with a very strong margin profile, at least here in Southern California. In Northern California, it was a very tough second half of the year and I anticipate that Northern California will be -- it's going to be a tough year going into this year, but in Southern California, what is it Mike, we own and control over 15,000 lots?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

We have a pretty good head start on everybody.

Alan Ratner -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst

Thanks a lot. Good luck.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question is from Stephen Kim with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Christopher Patrick McNally -- Evercore -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. This is actually Chris on for Steve. So looking at your land strategy, a lot of your peers are adopting this more asset-light approach by increasing the proportion of option lots. Is this something that you would consider doing on a go-forward basis?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We've always looked at how to maximize our risk-adjusted returns. As I mentioned in the remarks, we've employed a fair amount of land banking especially in some of the higher-priced land acquisition targets that we have encountered probably more in the West Coast and a little bit on the East Coast. So that continues to be a strategy. We also have very good relationships with several of our builder partners and we team up on that to reduce our capital commitment. And then third, I mean, we tie up land and we put it under option and we don't close until the entitlements are in place. So that's a strategy we continue to employ throughout every market.

Christopher Patrick McNally -- Evercore -- Analyst

Got it. And then...

Stephen Kim -- Evercore -- Analyst

Hi, guys. Actually, it's Steve Kim. I wanted to jump in, if I could with a question on incentives. In general, when Chris and Tran (ph) and I have gone on our market visits, we heard that in this period of recent rate volatility, customers are really kind of favoring these quick move-in homes, in other words spec home more than they historically might have. But our sense is that a lot of the builders haven't really adjusted incentive strategies to reflect this and so may actually be discounting homes more than they need to. So, I guess, I was wondering like have you -- do you agree that in today's buyer is maybe a little bit more open to a spec-driven product assortment and that therefore there might be an opportunity for you and others in the industry to actually hold back incentives until later in the build process for the homes that you don't have that are either took cancellations whatever something you would typically have incentivized heavily?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Stephen, this is Doug and I'll let Tom chime in here, but typically where we have close to finishing inventories back designer homes those typically end up having a higher incentive percentage than our dirt starts and that's typically the way we see our pricing paradigm going forward. Tom, I don't know if you want to add anything to that?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, Stephen, I would agree with you that there is a interest in a completed spec home right now. Obviously, interest rate volatility had a lot to do with that. We've certainly taken advantage of it. But again most of the incentive dollars we're spending are related to financing incentives. And then obviously a larger portion goes to options and upgrades. But, in general, I agree with Doug that we're not incentivizing extra on a spec home until it's closer to inventory.

Stephen Kim -- Evercore -- Analyst

Okay, thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jay McCanless with Wedbush. Please proceed with your question.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Hi, good morning, everyone. So when I look at some of the markets you guys are in, especially California and Seattle, we've seen pretty big increases in existing homes, competing (ph) existing homes for sale as well as price trend starting to slip, what are you guys seeing on the ground right now and I guess with with the absorptions being down thus far in February based on what's in the slide, it seems like you guys are still seeing a pretty fair amount of competitive pressure out there.

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, Jay, this is Tom. I think you're absolutely correct in those markets both California and (inaudible) in particular, we've seen a increase in retail inventory and and certainly a softening in demand that put a lot of competition among us and the resale market and certainly leading to slower absorption for us overall. California markets have shown some pretty healthy improvement for the first couple of months of this year comparatively to Q4; up in Seattle, we've had the benefit of some increases, but it didn't feel like it's gotten that will full-bore demand profile back yet.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

And then with the Dallas acquisition, did you all generate any order spend during 4Q that maybe the orders which all disclosed in the slides. Can you tell us how many of those came from that acquisition in the first couple of months?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

On the first couple of months (ph), Jay, there was just a handful of orders; we closed right in mid mid-December. So there's only a handful orders related to last year that were in the orders number; there was roughly 130 units in the backlog number though that we came into this year with and I don't have Dallas off hand for the first seven weeks, but I can get back to you on that.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

That would be great. And then just the other question...

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

I believe it is around 40, 41 orders something like that.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

That's correct.

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Out of 14 communities.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

That's correct.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Right. And then just the the increase in the cancellation rate, was that strictly just both seen on the buyers part or did you guys cancel some of the orders out that (inaudible).

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Definitely, I mean, increasing contingencies, buyers having a tougher time moving their homes in the fourth quarter and the fact that they have some interest rate concerns as well.

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Did you state Dallas, Jay, at the end as well.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Yes, I just -- I didn't know if that was some of that you guys decided to cancel out of (inaudible) or it was just like Doug said was contingencies...

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

There was a heavy can rate in Dallas at the beginning in January for us, but the can rate was relatively high in the fourth quarter, lot of that's related to contingent sales that people just were not able to sell their home to move into our so.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks for taking the questions.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Our cancellation rates so far this year is 15%, which is pretty consistent with what is historical average normally are.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nishu Sood with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Hi. This is Mario in for Nishu. My first question is about the buyers in California, have the fires impacted your development or community opening schedule in anyway?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

I didn't quite actually, did you say fire?

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Yes.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

(multiple speakers) No, I mean at the end of last year, there was concern up in Northern California getting meter set with PG&E but we fought through it, but nothing continuing into this year, our biggest issue now is we get a lot of snow and a lot of rain.

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Okay.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

And just for your clarification none of our developments are near or in the fire areas specifically.

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

All right. Thank you. And then my second question, how much community count growth do you expect from Dunhill for the full year? Can you provide that.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

It should be pretty flat. You talked about the Dallas-based builder we bought?

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Yes.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. It should be pretty flat; it would be about 14 communities for the year.

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

All right. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jack Micenko with SIG. Please proceed with your question.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. In looking at the ASP trend outlook for full year '19, how much of that is geography; I'm guessing most of it, and then how much of it is maybe product mix?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, some of its geography, Jack, because of Dallas. We're going to be roughly 300 units in Dallas at an ASP that is around (inaudible) so that does pull the overall averages down and then the rest of is probably product mix.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

So, like would you say 50-50 maybe or I mean it's pretty hard to...

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

The outside has less impact.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

Okay.

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

It's probably more product mix.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

And then on that same sort of general theme, should we think about pace obviously demand driven, but if demand sort of constant with the change in ASP, I mean, is there going to be a meaningful change in pace from sort of how you're planning?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Well, I'd say, we planned on an absorption pace of 2.8 for the full year, you know, historically, we've been at about 3.0 last year, we're at 3.3, so that seems to be the high watermark, I think, if you look at the slide deck it shows you historically what a full year absorption rate are. So we are planning currently 2.8, so if we see that the market is a little bit better in the spring selling season, we can outpace that and there will be some impact on our deliveries at the back end of the year.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

All right, good. And then just one last one from me. How much in the G&A line, is -- I think at about $700,000 in the fourth quarter from Dallas and then the de novo out in the Carolinas, is there a number or basis points that you could frame out and say, hey, this is is tucked in the G&A number for '19 that wasn't really there in '18.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes. Plus you've got the growth in some of our others -- like Austin, Sacramento, Dallas, the Carolinas there is probably $10 million to $12 million baked in there of incremental G&A that it's affected the year-over-year stats.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

And that should theoretically fade as we get through late '19 and '20 and they generate more...

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

And then they start generating revenue obviously, yes.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

Got it, got it.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

So, we little conservative on our SG&A guidance, from that perspective.

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you. That's helpful.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carl Reichardt with BTIG. Please proceed with your question.

Carl Reichardt -- BTIG -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Doug, just I mean, the January absorption looks like they're down 39% or so which is worse than Q4 and your February numbers are better, but obviously you don't have many cans in those recent orders. So, I'm just trying to understand sort of the confidence level here, is something happened in just the last few weeks relative to January beyond just a normal seasonal bump that's giving you the confidence that you see in running a 2.8 sort of for the year, I'm just struggling just given January looked like it was fair amount weaker than Q4. So that's what I'm trying to figure out.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Well, I guess, I'm looking at sequentially, November-December, we sold what 316 Homes in January; we sold what 226 in December; we're up to 385, so all I can tell you, Carl, to battle out there, we feel pretty good, that they (multiple speakers)

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Like we said in our call, it's been sequential improvement week over week and so that gives us more optimism I guess and last week being our best week so far. So, I think we're feeling better about where we're positioned, what our price points are and locations that we're in, and it seems like the consumer is starting to reengage.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Let me put it to you this way, Carl. If we are reporting at the end of January, I probably wouldn't be giving you a full-year guidance for 2019. But we're through almost February and housing business is tough, we've got a very seasoned management team here, and we're not going to sugar coat it. You got to have your -- again (ph), we've got a 12-point sales and marketing strategy, we're hitting on all cylinders on cost, management, as we mentioned in the deck. So, it is not for the faint of heart, but we're going to have a lot of fun and we're going to kick lot of fanny.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

The only other thing I would add to that is that we're really confident in our new product offerings as well. Our new projects as they come to market continued to get market share and increased demand, so we're pretty optimistic as we're bringing new product to the market.

Carl Reichardt -- BTIG -- Analyst

Fair enough. And then I just -- I wanted to ask two quick ones. One is, is all of your Nevada business (inaudible)? And then also Doug, you mentioned whether and I was going to ask you about that, your expectation for backlog conversion rate for this quarter is not too dissimilar from last year, obviously, I'm in California, we know how bad the weather has been in the last month or so. Are you anticipating or is it assumed in your backlog conversion rate that you will have some construction delays just getting stuff close?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

There a few, but we also have a fair amount of inventory going into the beginning year, so that doesn't get affected by the weather. What was the first part of your question?

Carl Reichardt -- BTIG -- Analyst

Just in Nevada -- is your Nevada (inaudible) or is there -- what percentage of it is legacy (inaudible), your current lot count versus anything you bought.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, actually we're through most of the legacy assets and in Vegas there and so it's a very small percentage and so it's all our new product moving forward.

Carl Reichardt -- BTIG -- Analyst

Okay. I appreciate it guys. Thanks very much.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Mike Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions and all the details so far. I wanted to follow up on just the conversation around absorption and touching on some of those monthly trends versus the full year. So, just to make sure we understand that correctly, it seems like if you kind of carry out February for a full month, you're running absorption probably down similar amount year-on-year, quarter-to-date versus what you did in 4Q, so down kind of mid- to high-20s (ph). So, when you're planning that 2.8, are you then taking just kind of normal seasonal trends off of those levels, so you see a pretty substantial narrowing in the year-on-year absorption trends as early as 2Q or how should we think about kind of the cadence that you guys are planning for?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes, I think we are feeling, Mike -- this is Mike, a relatively strong second quarter. So, we think we're growing into the second quarter and then we think in the back half of the year, we may absorb better than we did last year. So, that's kind of how we are looking at it. Obviously, the first six months is a very difficult comp for us. I think we averaged around 3.5 the last few years. We don't anticipate being at 3.5 for the first six months of the year.

Mike Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Right. Okay. So, you do think that there could be an inflection at some point even if modest in the fourth quarter?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Yes.

Mike Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it. And then Mike just kind of a clean up question around 1Q margins. You talked about some of the pull forward into 4Q from the California closings. I think there's also some backlog purchase accounting. Can you just give us like a -- can you quantify any of that in terms of breaking down that mix impact versus purchase accounting versus just the incentive environment?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Well, incentives, we talked about we're roughly it maybe 130 basis points when we started deliveries in 4Q versus 3Q. So, that incentive variance is going to pull forward into the first quarter and that it's going to be much higher than 130 basis points because there not going to be as many California deliveries in there and California is typically a lower percentage from an incentive perspective. And then when you look at the markets in Texas and some of the other markets, there is a much higher percentage. So, lot of it is being driven by the incentives given. And then, it's primarily mixed, I mean, as we mentioned, we only closed 15% of our long-term California assets in in the first quarter and some of those are coming from some of the long-term California assets that are maybe equal or below the Company average, and very few coming from the long-term assets that are higher than the Company average. From a purchase accounting perspective, clearly, we're not generating much margin because of purchase accounting In the first quarter from the Dallas closings. We haven't really quantified that on a basis points. So (inaudible) quarter from the -- most of those are standing inventory units that we've incentivize pretty highly to close in the first quarter.

Mike Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it. Makes sense. And if I could fit one more in, just as a follow-up to that. Just to clarify that around incentives because you talked about the 4.6 on deliveries, but then the 3.5 in backlog. Given that geographic mix, you just called it out in terms of California versus some of the other markets -- I know this might be difficult, but how much of that delta between the 4.6 another 3.5 is attributable to just a lower backlog in California then versus like-for-like pull back in incentives to start the year?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

I would say because -- we're talking about backlog at the end of the year, and that number. So, most of that is from the California. The success of the California orders in November and December from the long-term California assets, and a lot of that is just mix generated.

Mike Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Rygiel with FBR & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Alex Rygiel -- B. Riley FBR -- Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Could you expand a little bit upon some of the buyers that canceled in the fourth quarter? Are you starting to see them return in the first quarter? Are you starting to see the buyers in the first quarter have different views on what mortgage type to use or what value of options to take in the house?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Hi, Alex, this is Tom. Probably the biggest reason for our cancellations in Q4 were really the inability for the contingent buyer to move their resale product. So, we are seeing their desire to get into new housing still there. They're currently out shopping, but it's just a matter of getting their head around potentially a new price for their existing home. Relative to financing, it really hasn't skewed much. There is some talk of people looking at adjustable rate, but the reality is that just hasn't happened yet.

Alex Rygiel -- B. Riley FBR -- Analyst

Very helpful. And then in late 2019 what portion of your deliveries do you think are going to be coming from long-term assets?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it's -- I'll just give you through the months , it's roughly 15% in first quarter as I mentioned; the third quarter is the highest, it's roughly 25%. So you're going to see a significant spike in margins in the third quarter, barring any weather delays or construction delays as we see it sitting here today. But for the full year, it is roughly 20% and on the comp side that was 17% last year.

Alex Rygiel -- B. Riley FBR -- Analyst

Very helpful, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Finnerty with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

James Finnerty -- Citi -- Analyst

Hi, good morning, Doug. Just checking in on the balance sheet, debt maturity later this year and what your thoughts are with regards to debt reduction versus refinancing. Is that something you come to a conclusion on or waiting and seeing?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We've talked about -- we probably refinance those bonds that are coming due in June. We did generate $300 million of cash flow last year; we think we're going to be generating positive cash flow this year as well. So, we -- fortunately, we have the option to do either refinance or pay it within our existing debt structure, right now. So right now we're just kind of monitoring the markets and what that might --- an outcome might be so.

James Finnerty -- Citi -- Analyst

So, for the full year, would you expect that the debt balance to remain kind of stable?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

I think our debt is going to be decreasing over the full year.

James Finnerty -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay, great, thanks so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center. Please proceed with your question.

Alex Barron -- Housing Research Center -- Analyst

Yes, thanks guys. I was hoping you can comment on the G&A of $43 million this quarter run rate given the the acquisition going forward or was there more of a one-time maybe cost something in there?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

I mean, well, it was a strong quarter for us. The Company had a record year from an earnings perspective. So there's probably some more bonus accrual associated with that number. Short of that, I mean, we added the Carolinas. We...

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

More start-up costs.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

(multiple speakers) There is more start-up costs in some of the other smaller divisions that we have. So you're going to see that run rate kind of continue, Alex.

Alex Barron -- Housing Research Center -- Analyst

Got it. And can you give any comment, Mike, on financial services, what do you expect during this year?

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

I didn't give any on this year, but it's -- last year, we generated roughly, I don't know, it's $9.8 million, $10 million.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

It's very comparable on a year-over-year basis to what we did in 2018.

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

I mean, the volumes being roughly the same, ASPs are down. I mean, it's going to be roughly the same number.

Alex Barron -- Housing Research Center -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jay McCanless with Wedbush. Please proceed with your question.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my follow-up. Just two quick ones. Number one, what percentage of your current orders or your backlog are under a contingency contract and how is that percent driven over the last few quarters?

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, Jay. This is Tom. We certainly have that as a focused initiative to better manage our contingent buyers, and I would say that percentage is actually coming down. We're taking less contingent sales than we have in the past. And obviously, we've got a fair amount of completed inventory and we're not taking contingent sales on completed inventory. So I don't have the exact percentage, but it's certainly lower than what we've had historically.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

And then on the Mid-Atlantic, you're still seeing some weaker results there. What -- can you give us kind of an update, I know, you had some leadership changes there and maybe some product shift. What's going on there and how are you thinking about absorptions for the rest of this year?

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, Jay. This is Doug. The beginning of this year with the government shutdown definitely had some impact at Winchester on buyer confidence and in the first part of this year -- for the year, pleased to see that our Winchester division actually exceeded their profit plan. So the leadership led by Brad Blank has done an excellent job of kind of reengineering the sales and marketing, land acquisition and product and collaboration effect and really implemented the TRI Pointe operating strategy in the mid-Atlantic. So, we're pretty bullish about the long-term impacts that Winchester can have and a positive impact going forward and Brad is one of our strong leaders going forward to do that.

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. At this time, I like to turn the call back to Doug Bauer for closing comments.

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you. And we look forward to speaking with everybody at the end of the next quarter and have a great week. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.

Duration: 55 minutes

Call participants:

Chris Martin -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Douglas F. Bauer -- Chief Executive Officer

Michael D. Grubbs -- Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Stephen East -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Alan Ratner -- Zelman & Associates -- Analyst

Thomas J. Mitchell -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Christopher Patrick McNally -- Evercore -- Analyst

Stephen Kim -- Evercore -- Analyst

Jay McCanless -- Wedbush -- Analyst

Mario -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Jack Micenko -- SIG -- Analyst

Carl Reichardt -- BTIG -- Analyst

Mike Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Alex Rygiel -- B. Riley FBR -- Analyst

James Finnerty -- Citi -- Analyst

Alex Barron -- Housing Research Center -- Analyst

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