Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Western Alliance Bancorp (NYSE:WAL)
Q2 2020 Earnings Call
Jul 17, 2020, 12:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to the earnings call for Western Alliance Bancorporation for the second quarter 2020. Our speakers today are Ken Vecchione, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dale Gibbons, Chief Financial Officer. You may also view the presentation today via webcast through the Company's website at www.westernalliancebancorporation.com. The call will be recorded and made available for replay after 2:00 PM Eastern Time, July 17, 2020 through August 17, 2020 at 9:00 AM Eastern Time by dialing 1-877-344-7529 using passcode 10146019.

The discussion during this call may contain forward-looking statements that relate to expectations, beliefs, projections, future plans and strategies, anticipated events or trends, and similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. The forward-looking statements contained herein reflect our current views about future events and financial performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, assumptions and changes in circumstances that may cause our actual results to differ significantly from historical results and those expressed in any forward-looking statement. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical or expected results are included in the presentation, the related earnings release and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, the Company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

Now, for the opening remarks, I would like to turn the call over to Ken Vecchione. Please go ahead.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good afternoon, and welcome to Western Alliance's second quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Dale Gibbons and Tim Bruckner, our Chief Financial Officer and Chief Credit Officer. I will first provide an overview of our quarterly results and how we are managing the business in this current economic environment, and then Dale will walk you through the Bank's financial performance. Afterwards, we will open the line to take your questions.

I would like to focus on three trends that were present this quarter and will continue throughout the year: PPNR strength, credit provisioning expense and balance sheet growth. Combined, these trends will support earnings and capital growth and dividend distribution throughout 2020 and 2021.

Starting with our second quarter results, Western Alliance generated net income of $93.3 million and EPS of $0.93, which was up 12% over the previous quarter. Tangible book value per share of $27.84 was an increase of 4.2% over the previous quarter and 12.9% year-over-year. Driving these results was record operating pre-provision net revenue of $194.7 million, up 27.7% year-over-year and 19.1% quarter-over-quarter, with strong operating PPNR ROA growth of 18 basis points to 2.56%, which benefited from a recognition of $13.9 million in Payment Protection Program net fees. These results demonstrate that the long-term earnings power of Western Alliance's core business remained strong amid the current economic and market volatility and will support significant ongoing capital accumulation, provide financial flexibility to fund balance sheet growth and accommodate changes to the allowance for credit losses or revisions to the economic outlook.

In the quarter, we recorded provision for credit losses of $92 million versus $51.2 million in Q1, which was primarily attributable to changes in macroeconomic forecast assumptions and net charge-offs of $5.5 million. Dale will go into more detail in a bit on the specific drivers of our provisions, but our total loan ACL to funded loan ratio now stands at 1.39% or $347 million.

Continuing our strong balance sheet momentum from 2019, loans increased $1.9 billion this quarter to $25 billion and deposits grew $2.7 billion to $27.5 billion. Without the inclusion of PPP, loans grew a more modest $117 million and deposits demonstrated strong growth of approximately $1.6 billion. The lower adjusted loan growth reflects muted demand, for which we held back our marketing activities and directed our focus to low-loss, high-quality loan segments, in addition to assisting our clients with their PPP applications.

We are encouraged by our pipeline and our opportunity to continue to grow in low-risk asset classes. Throughout the crisis, we have continued to attract new high-quality relationships to our bank at pricing and terms that would not have been available to us in other circumstances. Furthermore, this quarter's positive operating leverage supported our expanding PPNR, as our strong efficiency ratio improved sharply to 36.3% compared to prior year. Becoming more efficient during this economic uncertainty provides the incremental flexibility to maintain PPNR. Looking ahead, we will continue to invest in new product offerings and infrastructure to maintain operational efficiency, but Q2 levels are temporary and will eventually rise back to a sustainable level in the low-40s. However, our branch-light business model and our National Business Lines strategy continue to give us a competitive advantage.

Finally, supported by our healthy PPNR generation, Western Alliance remains well capitalized with a CET1 ratio of 10.2%, which puts us in a position of strength, uniquely prepared to address what's ahead in this uncertain environment.

Now, let's take a moment to provide an update on Western Alliance's response to the COVID pandemic. First and foremost, I want to acknowledge, the health and safety of our people and clients are of our utmost concern. We continue to follow CDC protocol and state-by-state return to work guidance, as our organization returns to the office. Our business continuity plans have been working as anticipated, and I want to thank all of our people who continue to go above the call of duty to get the job done and serve our clients in this unique environment.

As I initially described on our Q1 earnings call, WAL's unique credit risk management strategy is focused on establishing individual borrower level strategies and direct customer dialog to develop long-term financial plans. Our approach to payment deferral requests is to look for resourceful ways to partner with our clients, along with assessing their willingness and capacity to support their business interests. We asked our clients to work hand in hand with us, whereby our clients contribute liquidity, capital or equity as an integral component to modify payment plans. Our approach collectively uses the resources of the borrower [Phonetic], government and bank's balance sheet to develop solutions that extend beyond the six-month window provided for in the CARES Act. Since April 1, WAL has funded $1.9 billion in PPP loans, which provided expedient liquidity to over 4,700 clients and benefited more than 150,000 employees.

At quarter end, $2.9 billion or 11.5% of loans had been modified with the bulk of these loans receiving principal and interest deferrals. Excluding the Hotel Franchise Finance segment, in which we executed a unique sector deferral strategy, the Bankwide deferral rate is approximately 5%. The vast majority of our borrowers elect to utilize their own resources or PPP funds to bridge their business through the COVID crisis.

I will provide an update on the portfolios most impacted by COVID later on, but I did want to highlight, in our Hotel Franchise Finance portfolio, our sophisticated hotel sponsors continue to see value in and support their properties with 92% of deferrals achieved by posting additional liquidity as a component of future payment deferrals. Our differentiated deferral strategy provides our customers the runway to resolve their liquidity issues and allow the appropriate time to recover. Unlike the cookie-cutter big bank approach, we established the expectation that the burden of responsibility of solving the long-term cash flow problems remains with our client base.

In our Gaming book, all borrowers continued to make interest payments as 90-day principle-only deferrals were approved for 37% of the portfolio. Today, 95% of our clients are open for business and are experiencing a strong rebound of demand. These facts and the daily conversations with our people and clients help me feel confident that our credit mitigation strategy and early approach to proactively managing our risk segments is bearing fruit and puts Western Alliance in a strong position to come out on the other side of the pandemic in better shape than our peers.

Dale will now take you through our financial performance.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Ken. Over the last three months, Western Alliance generated net income of $93.3 million or $0.93 per share. As mentioned, net income was impacted by elevated provision expense for credit losses, driven by the adoption of CECL in Q1 and changes in the economic outlook during the quarter. Net interest income increased $29.4 million, primarily as a result of loan growth and lower rates on liabilities, as interest expense was cut in half. Operating non-interest income fell $5.2 million to $11.1 million from the prior quarter as lower levels of financial activity generated lower -- fewer fees.

We also benefited from several non-operating items during the period, including a recovery of approximately 40% or $4.4 million of the mark-to-market loss on preferred stock holdings we recognized in Q1. Additionally, bank owned life insurance was restructured, resulting in an increase of $5.6 million as we surrendered and reinvested lower-yielding policies. In addition to this gain, this should moderately increase BOLI revenue prospectively.

Finally, non-interest expense declined $5.7 million, primarily from an increase in deferred compensation expense of $3.3 million related to PPP loan originations, plus a 52% decrease in deposit costs and a 64% decline in business development and travel expenses.

Strong ongoing balance sheet momentum, coupled with diligent expense management, drove operating pre-provision net revenue of $194.7 million, which was up 27.7% year-over-year. We believe this is the most relevant metric to evaluate the ongoing earnings power of the Bank. Our strong PPNR covered an 80% increase in provision costs from Q1 to $92 million, while driving EPS up 12% to $0.93 on a linked quarter basis.

Turning now to our interest drivers, investment yields increased 4 basis points from the prior quarter to 3.02%. However, the overall quarterly portfolio yield decreased by 32 basis points from the prior year due to the lower rate environment. Loan yields decreased 45 basis points, following declines across most loan types, mainly driven by the 83 basis point reduction in one-month LIBOR during the quarter. Yield reductions were partly offset by an average yield on our PPP loans of 5.02%. Prospectively, we expect loan yields to trend toward the end-of-quarter spot rate shown of 4.66%.

Interest-bearing deposit costs fell by 50 basis points in Q2 to 40 basis points, as this quarter received the full benefit of our proactive steps taken to reduce deposit rates immediately after the FOMC cut rates twice in March. The spot rate of total deposits at quarter end was 20 basis points. Total funding costs declined by 34 basis points when all of the Company's funding sources are considered, including non-interest-bearing deposits and borrowings. The spot rate on total funding costs of 31 basis points is higher than the quarterly average due to the issuance of subordinated debt mid-quarter at 5.25%. We expect funding costs to have stabilized at these levels as no further Fed actions are anticipated.

Demonstrating the flexibility of our business model, despite a transition to a substantially lower rate environment during the quarter, net interest income rose 10.9% or $29 million during Q1 [Phonetic] to $298.4 million, up 17% year-over-year. Our origination of PPP loans, coupled with strong balance sheet growth and immediate steps taken to reduce the cost of interest bearing deposits, counteracted the decline in prime and LIBOR.

PPP lending supported our net interest margin during Q2 as SBA fees were recognized, resulting in a loan yield of 5.02% in this sector. We estimate most of PPP loans will be forgiven within eight months from origination. Of the $43 million in triple PPP loan fees we received from the SBA net of origination costs, one-third or $13.9 million was recognized in the second quarter.

Net interest margin contracted 3 basis points to 4.19% during the quarter, as our earning asset yield fell 34 basis points, but was offset by an equal improvement in funding costs. Our outsized deposit growth and mounting cash reserves will continue to place downward pressure on the NIM until the excess liquidity can be deployed, which we expect will take two to three quarters.

With regards with our asset sensitivity, our rate risk profile has declined notably over the last year, and we are now asymmetrically positioned to benefit from any future rate increases as 70% of our loan portfolio is behaving as a fixed rate since floors on variable-rate loans have largely been triggered. Our estimated net change of net interest income in a 100 basis point parallel shock higher is 4.2% over the next year, and we now project zero net interest income at risk if rates move lower.

Turning now to operating efficiency, on a linked quarter basis, our efficiency ratio improved 550 basis points to 36.3%, which continues to demonstrate our industry-leading operating leverage. As mentioned earlier, the non-interest expense improvement is related to an increase in deferred compensation expense of $3.3 million unrelated PPP loan originations, plus a 52% reduction in deposit costs and a 64% decrease in development and travel costs. Normalizing for PPP net loan fees and interest, the efficiency ratio for Q2 would have been 38.4%. Additionally, our branch-light model has given us the flexibility to identify two locations that we are transitioning from full service offices to loan production facilities.

Our core underlying earning power remained strong as pre-provision net revenue ROA increased 18 basis points from the prior quarter to 2.56% and return on assets was flat at 1.22%. While we expect the 2.56% is a high watermark as elevated liquidity will hold down the margin, we believe we will continue to maintain industry-leading performance. This provides a significant flexibility to fund ongoing balance sheet growth, capital management actions or any credit demand.

Our balance sheet momentum continued during the quarter as loans increased $1.9 billion to $25 billion, and deposit growth of $2.7 billion brought our deposit balances to $27.5 billion at quarter end. The loan to deposit ratio fell to 90.9% from 93.3% in Q1, as our strong liquidity position continues to provide us with balance sheet capacity to meet all funding needs. Our cash position increased to $1.5 billion as deposit growth continues to outpace credit expansion. While this impairs the margin near term, we believe it provides us with inventory for good credit growth as demand resumes. Of note, during the quarter, we issued $225 million of bank level subordinated debt to ensure ample capacity to support our growth trajectory by bolstering our total capital ratio.

Finally, tangible book value per share increased $1.11 over the prior quarter to $27.84, an increase of $3.19 or 13% over the prior year.

The vast majority of the $1.9 billion in loan growth was driven by increases in C&I loans of $1.6 billion, residential loans of $154 million and construction loans of $138 million. Residential and consumer loans now comprise 9.8% of our loan portfolio, while our construction loan concentration continues to trend downward and is now at 8.8% of total loans. Excluding PPP loans, loan growth was $117 million, which was affected by line paydowns from draws during Q1 and offset by growth in residential and construction. Highlighting our continued focus on growth in low-risk assets, tech and innovation loans were flat in total, while within the category, capital call and subscription lines grew $35 million, mortgage warehouse loans grew $325 million and residential mortgages grew $165 million. Corporate finance loans decreased $233 million compared to the increase we saw in Q1 as borrowers repaid their line draws, reducing utilization rates down from 38% to 17%. And all loan growth was fully funded by deposit growth.

We continue to believe our ability to profitably grow deposits is both a key differentiator and a core value driver to our firm's long-term value creation. Notably, year-to-date deposit growth of $6.1 billion is higher than the annual deposit growth of the Company in any previous calendar year. Deposits grew $2.7 billion or 10.9% in the second quarter, driven by increases in non-interest-bearing DDAs of $2.3 billion, which now comprise over 44% of our deposit base. PPP loan related deposits grew $1.1 billion, and savings and money market accounts were up $845 million. HOAs contributed to total deposit growth by adding $136 million, and Tech & Innovation increased $262 million as capital raising activity during the quarter was active. Excluding PPP-related deposits, growth would have been $1.6 billion or 6.5%.

Regarding asset quality, special mention loans increased $292 million and non-performing loans rose $53 million during the quarter. One-half of the increase in SM loans are from the hotel portfolio. Generally consistent with our previously discussed Tech & Innovation rating guidelines, these loans were downgraded as we do not have clear line of sight to more than six months of remaining operating liquidity. These borrowers are current, however, as they made loan prepayments that were -- we required for us to consent to a deferral modification. Our other borrowers in this segment are also paying as agreed or provide cash -- or provided cash payments when the -- that when coupled with the payment deferral, have no additional debt service requirement until sometime in 2021.

Second, we've aggregated an event planning and leisure sub-segment, in which the business models are essentially dependent on social distancing relief, and in some cases, the resumption of group events. Of the $150 million total exposure to this sector, $60 million has been moved to special mention and $40 million to non-performing. While the portion to FM has over a year of current liquidity, it was downgraded as the revenue models have been sharply impaired. The loan moved to non-performing has had -- now has limited remaining liquidity. The remainder of the migration to special mention is fairly granular from our client spreads throughout our metropolitan markets where liquidity has been tightened. These loans are generally collateralized by an array of assets that include real property. Frequently, a loan may be downgraded to SM because of liquidity concerns, even though collateral average may be considerable. For this reason, migration to special mention has a low correlation to ultimate credit losses as over the past five years, less than 1% has moved through to charge-off.

Our allowance for credit losses rose $86 million during the quarter as the change in mix of the balance sheet released $4.2 million of reserves and changes to the outlook accounted for $96.2 million, including covering $5.5 million of net charge-offs. Revisions to the CECL macroeconomic outlook assumptions, which have declined since March 31 but have generally stabilized since April, accounted for the entire net reserve build. The earning [Phonetic] allowance related to loan losses was $347 million excluding held-to-maturity securities, or 1.39% of funded loans, an increase of 25 basis points.

The current reserve build reflects our best estimate of the future economic environment as of quarter end, including the impact of government stimulus programs and credit migration actions. We have migrated to a consensus economic outlook of Blue Chip Economic Forecasts as it tracks largely management's view of a recession and recovery.

Net credit losses of $5.5 million were recognized during the quarter, which were mainly attributable to small business and C&I borrowers. In all, total loan ACL to funded loans increased 25 basis points to 1.39% in Q2 as provision expense for loan losses of $87.3 million significantly outpaced net loan charge-offs. Relative to most other banking companies, our lower consumer exposure continues to result in lower total loan losses.

I will now turn the call back to Ken.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Dale. I would now like to briefly update you on the current status of a few exposures to the industries generally considered to be the most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. During the last two weeks of the quarter, Tim Bruckner, the credit administration team and I conducted the most extensive quarterly portfolio review process in the Bank's history. The review covered 95% of WAL's outstanding loan balances, excluding purchased residential mortgages.

Our $2 billion Hotel Franchise Finance business, focused on select service hotels, represents approximately 8.2% of the loan portfolio. The financial flexibility of these borrowers is maximized by working with financially strong institutional operating partners with deep industry experience, expertise and conservative underwriting structures focused on loan to cost. Occupancy rates are tracking national averages, currently around 46%, which have tripled compared to the lows in April of around 15% and are now only a few percentage points short of fully covering estimated operating expenses. At approximately 55% occupancy, select service hotels are also estimated to cover amortizing debt service. As a testament to the operating models of the select service hotels, revenue per available room has fallen 55%, but they have been able to shrink their cost structure by over 40%. And as a result, the typical hotel is operating at breakeven.

Nearly 85% of our hotel portfolios either pay as originally agreed or on proactive payment deferral plans that bridge into 2021. We feel positive about the trajectory of the portfolio and that our proactive deferral strategy will produce relatively stronger credit performance, given the active support of our sponsors have demonstrated through the material upfront payments made to receive deferral plans. To augment the strategy, we nearly doubled the reserve of the portfolio this quarter and increased the ACL to loans ratio by 93 basis points to 1.95%.

The investor dependent portion of our Technology & Innovation segment is primarily focused on lending to established growth companies with successful products and strong investor support, which provides greater operating and financial flexibility in this environment. Overall, a significant sponsor support and an active fund raising environment continue for these growth firms. 81% of loans have greater than six months' remaining month liquidity, up from 77% in Q1. Additionally, we have had over 50 clients successfully raise over $1.4 billion in new capital since March 1.

Our $509 million Gaming book is focused on off-strip, middle market gaming-linked companies whose revenue is driven by local demand factors. 37% of the portfolio is on 90-day principle-only payment deferral as they continue to cover interest payments. Additionally, these clients benefited from $28.4 million of PPP loans. Inclusive of our recent closure mandates in Nevada to limit certain business activities, businesses representing 95% of the portfolio are open for operations. Upon reopening, all casinos borrowers are performing at or above their COVID operating plan, and no loans were downgraded to criticized or classified at quarter end.

Lastly, our commercial real estate portfolio continues to perform as 99% of our industrial leases are current. 90% of our office rents are paid on par with the national average. The sub-segment of CRE that's showing signs of stress for the industry is retail. WAL's CRE retail exposure of $676 million is focused on local personnel service-based retail strip centers with limited merchandise retail exposure. Similar to HFF, we are utilizing deferrals to support a path to recovery for these borrowers, while requiring demonstrated sponsor support with high level of additional payment reserves. Of note, 67% of WAL's [Phonetic] investor CRE retail tenants paid May's rent payments compared to 50% nationally. We continue to generate significant capital and maintain strong regulatory capital ratios with tangible common equity to total assets of 8.9% and a common tier 1 ratio of 10.2%, an increase of 20 basis points during the quarter. Excluding PPP loans, TCE to tangible assets is flat from Q1 at 9.4%.

Inclusive of our quarterly cash dividend payment of 25% per share, our tangible book value per share rose $1.11 in the quarter to $27.84, an increase of 12.9% in the past year. We continue to grow our tangible book value per share at a rate significantly faster than our peers as it has increased three times that of our peers over the last 5.5 years.

In conclusion, we expect loan growth to be fairly flat in Q3 as PPP pay-offs and forgivenesses are largely offset by the organic growth in low risk asset classes. Depending on the timing of the realized PPP forgiveness, organic loan growth should offset PPP run-off, resulting in net loan growth being relatively stable. We anticipate another strong quarter of deposit growth in Q3, primarily by executing on our deposit initiatives and achieving our market share gains in mortgage warehouse. The anticipated deposit growth and resulting liquidity will primarily be deployed into residential mortgage assets to improve returns on cash over the next several quarters. However, as PPP loans roll off and liquidity continues to rise, pressure on NIM will also continue until it can be fully deployed into productive assets. While we are pleased with our deposit growth, the pace is exceeding loan growth. And as Dale mentioned, it will take several quarters to redeploy this liquidity into low risk loans or assets providing yields greater than the Fed's current offering.

Operating PPNR is expected to decline modestly as PPP income begins to abate, loan balances growth -- grow begin -- growth begins to reignite and the deployment of excess liquidity continues and deferred loan origination costs return to normal levels. Our long-term asset quality and loan loss reserves are informed by the economic consensus forecast, which is [Phonetic] consistent going forward, should preclude material increases in reserve levels from this point. The pace, timing and size of future net charge-offs are uncertain to us as we have not seen a material increase in delinquencies or substandard [Phonetic] migration. Finally, our strong capital base and access to ample liquidity will allow us to both take advantage of any market dislocations to grow in low-risk areas and to address any credit demands in the future.

At this time, Dale, Tim and I are happy to take your questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Casey Haire of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Casey Haire -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Casey Haire -- Jefferies -- Analyst

So, first question on the hotel book, the deferral strategy, you guys there looks -- it's more than six months. Can you just give us some color on what the average term is and how far in advance have you guys deferred these? And then, what is -- the occupancy sounds like it is near sort of breakeven levels. What is in your reserve build forecast going forward? Do you have it reaching 50 -- reaching that 55% level? Just some color there, given that this obviously is of concern.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think the Hotel Franchise Finance book of business is the most misunderstood and our approach is not fully understood as well. So, let me take a half a step backwards and give you a larger picture as to what we're doing and why we're doing it, and then get directly to your questions there, Casey. One, first misconception is deferrals are a good thing, OK? Payment deferrals require cash collateral or paydown of debt upfront. They prove -- or provide liquidity to the project. They show, from the borrowers' point of view, project commitment, which is very important. Or they flush out any early problems we need to deal with. So, when we say we have a six-plus-six program, what that means is, our borrower gave us six months of payments upfront that we deposited into a bank account, which we pull out on a monthly basis as debt service coverage ratio -- debt service coverage is due -- principal and interest, I should say, is due. And they don't get to their six-month deferral process until six months from today. So that's what six-plus-six means, all right? And what we're trying to do here, as we look for people who provide the liquidity and commit to the projects, again, it helps us understand if they do not want to do those things. Then, we need to take fast action to preserve the 40% of equity that's sitting in front of our debt. That is the philosophy around our approach.

As specific answer to your question, today, about 51% of our portfolio is in the six-plus-six deferral bucket. 19% is in the three-plus-three bucket. About 9% is in the -- is paying as agreed, and another 3% is in the three-plus-six bucket. And then, we've got a whole bunch of other plans: five-plus-five, two-plus-two, all those types of plans, depending on the particular borrower, and that amounts to about 10%. So, all in, about 92% of our hotel book is paying as agreed or is on a deferral program.

Now, we still have about 6% that we're in the process of documenting, and we expect that to fall into any one of the buckets I just described. But all in, overall, 99% of our hotel book is paying as agreed, even if they're on a deferral, because we are attaching those funds that are sitting in a bank account where they provided the liquidity upfront.

The other specific question you asked is -- let me just give you some of the numbers here. For us, the current occupancy is about 43%, 44%. That is three times higher than the lows in March. The ADR is $44. That too is three times higher than March. We did say, at 45%, based on our book of business here, that the Company is breakeven on an operating basis, and at 55%, the Company does begin -- or the book of business does begin to cash flow on a one-to-one ratio, inclusive of amortization, OK? I think that addressed all of your questions.

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

I would add a couple of things. Tim Bruckner. First, I would say, this was not the easiest thing to execute. I don't want to downplay that. The -- this took a concerted effort of our people. And initial discussions with borrowers were difficult because we're solving for a period significantly longer than most viewed COVID in the first 90 days of the crisis. And so, we went out from the start and said, let's solve for periods sufficient to return to stabilization. And that's what we did. And we solved that not just with our money and our deferral, but with contributions from our very significant sponsorship in the space. We did it because it was the right thing to do. Our borrowers did it because they could do it. And I think that's a very important point on this. And we have so many now that come back and say, I'm so glad that we took this approach.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

So, 50% of our portfolio, slightly more, will have to deal with these issues again in middle of 2022, all right? Another 20% -- 2021, sorry. Another 20% or so, we'll deal with toward the end of the year, OK? So, we've given enough of a runway here. And this was the most important thing that we can do to help our clients is to give them a long runway to come back up to operating levels that they previously experienced. Initially, as Tim said, they resisted. But once they talked to us, once they saw what was happening, they saw some of the wisdom in the approach that we deployed. Casey, did I answer your questions there?

Casey Haire -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yeah. No, that was pretty comprehensive. I'll have to go back and reread it myself, but that was very good. Dale, a question for you on the NIM. Slide 6, by my math on the spot rates, it looks like it's about -- it exited the quarter at 3.90% [Phonetic]. Just -- does that sound about right? Number one. And then number two, what does that loan yield spot rate of 4.66% -- what does that presume for the PPP loans? At 5.02% in the quarter, in 2Q, that's a lot higher than what we've seen from peers. So, just some color there.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, that assumes 5.02% for the quarter as well. So what we did in terms of recognizing PPP revenue is, we've estimated, doing the effective interest method in GAAP, how long these loans are going to last. And from information what we have on what our borrowers are thinking and how they're behaving, we think that the average life of these is going to be about eight months. And so, we're taking the PPP average loan fee, which is about 2.7%, and we're recognizing two-thirds of that really over these eight months and then there is a tail for the part that might not pay off. So, you should expect us to show [Phonetic] something of a level loan yield on the PPP. Then, I think some others are doing maybe a little different -- a different approach. I would hope that that our number would be would be on the higher side of where you are in the higher 3s for the quarter. But frankly, it kind of remains to be seen a bit. We've had this massive increase in core deposits. We think that we're on track for another strong quarter of core deposit growth in the third quarter, while loan balances won't be moving as much because we're dealing with the paydowns on PPP as we originate credit in other high-quality categories. So, that's going to help us in terms of inventory build, but it doesn't help us in terms of the NIM. But we think that's going to be really important in 2021.

Casey Haire -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Great, thank you. I'll step back.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brad Milsaps of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Dale, just wanted to make sure I understand the PPP fees on a go-forward basis. $1.9 billion of loans would imply $57 million in gross fees. I think you mentioned that net of fee -- net of origination costs, you had about $43 million left. You recognized about $14 million this quarter. Can you help me understand sort of the geography of where some of those fees will show up in terms of NII versus a reduction in operating expenses going forward? I think you'll get to the same place overall, but maybe starting from a little lower point than I thought.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's -- I think that's probably the biggest delta. So, we did $1 billion -- or just under $1.9 billion, $1.860 billion in loans. We had some people surrender, had a couple of early pays. And so, that number is down to about $1.7 billion today. We received fees of $49 million from the SBA, not $57 million. And then, we netted certain costs against that, and that's how we get to the $43 million. Going forward, I'm not looking for any cost relief obviously because the origination process has ended. But I'm not looking for -- but -- so, the $3.3 million that we've highlighted in the release, yeah, I think that's going to come back up in compensation expense. So, that is going to rise again. And then the remainder -- so, that gets you a net $43 million. We took a third of that in the second quarter. We're probably going to take another third of that in the third quarter. And then, we're going to have a tail into the fourth and maybe dribble down a little bit into the first of next year in terms of kind of recognition. So, I think there's [Phonetic] two things. One is, maybe the dollar amount was a little bit higher because some of these were very short term or refunded. And then two, the average loan fee was shy of 3%. It was about 2.7%.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Okay. So, bottom line, you still got $29 million to recognize. Most of that's going to come through net interest income.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

That will all come through net interest income.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Got it. Understood. And then, just to follow up on the margin, you note in the deck you've got 78% of the loan book essentially acting as a fixed rate. Thus far -- I know it's early, but how challenging has it been to defend some of those floors? Obviously, there's probably not a lot of loans moving from bank to bank right now. So, just kind of curious kind of your thoughts on being able to defend those loan floors as we kind of move through the year.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Actually, it has been less challenging than it has been in other downward environments. I would tell you that today -- and this is unusual. Two or three years ago, when we put on a loan with a floor, we have -- the loan docs are in there. And this of course is disclosed and discussed. But it triggers 25 basis points to 50 basis points below the variable rate. And so, it's like a little bit an afterthought, it's probably not going to hit me. Most people don't think loans are -- rates are going to plummet as they did. Today, that's not the case. Today, how we are written -- how these are written is usually at a LIBOR floor assumption of 1%. Well, LIBOR is under 20 basis points today. So they go in knowing, OK, this loan is priced at L plus 325 [Phonetic], and L is never considered to be below 1%. So, out of the gate, the floor is what's active and it's going to be active for -- until LIBOR gets above 1%. And then, we can go to a variable rate structure.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Surprisingly, we're not losing business because of the floors.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Got it. And then, final question, just looking through some of the segment data, I did notice there was a -- what looked like a negative provision in the other NBL category in the quarter. That reserve actually went down. Any color there kind of relative to kind of what you did with the rest of the portfolio?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. It's not so much a portfolio thing. It's that -- when we updated for the CECL outlook and the migration from Mark Zandi's analysis to a consensus forecast, it resulted in different allocations for certain sectors. And C&I loans in particular kind of came down in part in that regard.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question today comes from Timur Braziler of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Hi, good morning, guys.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Maybe we can start on the credit migration into special mention this quarter. It certainly didn't seem like that was the primary reason for the second quarter provision. I guess, looking ahead, how should we think about future credit migration relative to the current allowance? If there's future migration to special mention, is that already pretty much included in the existing expectations? And I guess more specifically, if there's migration out of special mention and into classified, would that drive incremental necessity to build allowance from here?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, as I kind of alluded to, the loss rates from SM loans does not have a high correlation in terms of migration, and that's reflected in our formulas. We don't see that in the math and in the emergence of loss. And so, migration to SM is usually driven by a liquidity question. So, even if we've had a loan that was at a 20% loan to value but there is a liquidity tightening going on at that borrower, that's going to go to SM, even though the risk of loss most people would say would say would be essentially zero. So, in terms of what could migrate to SM, I think we kind of highlighted that we thought we'd see some SM migration in the hotel book because they are under liquidity stress as those -- as occupancy rates really dropped in that quarter. Now, if you go from there to classified or to non-performing, it has become a different category and those loss assumptions do generally climb. When we move to a classified asset, we're going to look at the collateral behind it and we're going to recognize a reserve based upon are we under water or not relative to expectations. So, that could be a different result. But SM migration really has almost no effect on provisioning.

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And then, maybe switching to the technology portfolio, certainly encouraging to see that over 50 clients, over $1 billion was raised in the quarter. I'm looking specifically at the 14% of tech loans last quarter that had under six months of liquidity. Were those included in $1.4 billion of capital raising activity? And I guess those companies that are coming up to that kind of deadline, are they having as easy success raising incremental rounds? And what's happening to the valuations, if they are?

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, some of that money was raised for those customers that were in SM last quarter that we're able to raise their -- raise liquidity and then move out. That's a constant number that kind of moves in and moves out. Relatively speaking, the Tech & Innovation book stayed relatively flat in terms of the SM movement. So that was very encouraging to me because it means that the investors are continuing to be confident in the projects or investments they've made and are continuing to put capital into their companies. So, I hope that...

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

I would add just -- Tim Bruckner -- quarter-over-quarter, we actually saw improvements in businesses with RML less than six months, if you look quarter one to quarter two. And so, what we're seeing is a high level of activity. In some cases, the rounds are smaller, but we're seeing sustained sponsor support and really strong activity in the sector. So quarter-over-quarter, RML less than six improved Q1 to Q2.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I'll give you two pieces of interesting facts about our book, which -- for the Tech & Innovation. The median equity invested in our portfolios is six times our loan commitment today, and it is 10.6 times the current outstanding loan balance. So, it gives you a sense of how much equity is going into the companies and also the fact that even though we give a commitment, about half of that commitment is not drawn down on at all because they have so much equity. And that leads us to why we have 2 times to 2.5 times, depending on what time of year you look at, deposit to loans in the Tech & Innovation business.

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Got it. And then in the Gaming book, I guess, I'm kind of surprised to see the level of allowance allocated to that portfolio relative to currently adversely graded loans. Is that an indication that things could still get choppy in the future? Or is that formulaic because it didn't seem like there was much expected loss content from your prepared remarks?

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So first, we have no Las Vegas Strip exposure, OK? We mostly have drive-through and local markets. And what's interesting here is, they are outperforming the same period of 2019 in their initial reopenings. So May 2020 was better than May 2019, all right? We do have one or two properties where they are just performing at COVID plant. And that is not -- that's the worst that we can say that we're pretty happy about that. Some of our gaming establishments are posting win per day at their slot machines that are three times the normal average level, all right?

So in this book, we have -- 36% of the book has had an interest-only deferral. We have not had any principal deferrals. Part of what you see in our calculation is manually driven by the model, of course, there are some subjective input put in on top, overlays for what we think is occurring in our book of business. But our book has a fairly strong, or I should say, lower leverage than you think. Generally the leverage in our book is just under three times debt-to-EBITDA. You go back to the last crisis, and anything over a -- under a 4.5 times to 5 times debt-to-EBITDA, had a 90% survival rate.

So right now we like our book, it's doing well. We are encouraged that there is a return here by our gaming clients, customers. And I also think it shows well for that when the economy opens up again, how quickly people want to come back out and socialize and be in settings with other people.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I mean I think part of what you're referring to, Timur, is basically the process of using formulas that were developed during the financial crisis and extrapolating them to today, which has a different circumstance and a different underwriting and a different kind of risk profile entirely. With 95% of our properties open, and what we're seeing in the low LTV, we are in this sector, I would put my bet that when we're done with this pandemic and we look past, look backward in terms of what happened, the ACL in this sector will have been shown to be higher than it needed to be.

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

Yeah. I might add...

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Sorry, go ahead.

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

It's Tim Bruckner. I'd just add. The pace of all of these things in the currency of these events, we're seeing in late May and then in June, there is very robust response to the industry, the high volumes. And though very, very positive, as Dale was saying, the ACL is based on historical. We're seeing results that are outperforming what we have seen historically, and that's another way to look at it.

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Understood. Thank you. And then just, sorry, one more modeling question for Dale, just average PPP loans for the quarter?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

I'm sorry. What was that? The average PPP?

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

The average PPP balances for the quarter?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

$1.8 billion.

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris McGratty of KBW. Please go ahead.

Christopher McGratty -- KBW -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for the question. Dale or Ken, just wanted to go back to loan growth for a second. Completely understand that the near-term low-risk growth strategy and PPP dynamics, perhaps it last couple of quarters, I'm wondering kind of your thoughts on how we should be thinking about loan growth beyond maybe the next couple of quarters? And remind us kind of the targets that you're setting forth for growth?

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So I think as I said in my prepared remarks, it will be somewhat stable to where we are now when you consider the run-off of the PPP, as Dale talked about, being replaced by our traditional organic loan growth. As we emerge out of Q4, we haven't done our full planning yet, but I would think that it's going to be no less than what we normally do, which is $600 million to $800 million per quarter.

Right now, I am encouraged that our pipeline is beginning to build. And I arrive at that conclusion by looking at the number of loans that come into our senior loan committee, all right? Those are the largest loans in the bank. They're coming in with -- from what I'll call brand name companies that you would know very well at better terms, OK, and at better pricing.

And so we are encouraged by that right now that we have to wait for those loans to be approved and we have to of course wait for them to be drawn down. But as we emerge out of Q4, I would think we're back to our normal run rate of $600 million to $800 million a quarter. And we'll update you as we get closer to Q4 as we normally do for the next year out.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

I think this is going to partially depend upon what happens to the situation. I mean, I've been encouraged by what seems to be a number of firms worldwide that claim to have an efficacious vaccine. And if that's the case, and if that is a rollout around the end of this year maybe into Q1, I think that puts confidence in a different level. And I think we would have the background and we are ready with the infrastructure and we've got the deposit capacity that we will be able to take advantage of an increase in demand as confidence resumes.

Christopher McGratty -- KBW -- Analyst

That's great. Dale, in terms of deposits, so it sounds like loan growth treading water until the end of the year and then resumption. The comments about deposit growth is coming in. If I take out the PPP of $1.1 billion, you still grew $1.5 billion or so in the quarter. Can you just help us with the magnitude of what you're likely to see in Q3 and Q4? Just how big the balance sheet is going to be, I guess, I'm trying to get my arms around?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Well, it's not going to replicate what we did in the first half of the year. But we're getting traction in our specialty business lines. We're getting traction in mortgage warehouse. We're getting traction in Homeowner Associations. And we're getting traction in tech plays. And all those have demonstrated historical momentum. And the queue is good for what we're seeing coming in.

Christopher McGratty -- KBW -- Analyst

Great. And then if I could sneak one last one in? Just want to make sure I got the expense outlook right. So the deposit cost came down to 3.5, is that the right run rate that we should be using from here?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

I think that's fair.

Christopher McGratty -- KBW -- Analyst

Okay. And then the moving pieces with the PPP comp, how do we think about just overall expenses? You were kind of flat quarter-on-quarter, but I know you're making some investments, but any kind of direction on expenses?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I mean, we're at 115. That included a credit for PPP originations. Of course, we're not doing any more PPP originations. And as you mentioned, we're going to be fairly flattish with paydowns from that program and expectation of offsets development elsewhere. So I don't think we're going to be below 40% on efficiency for long. I'm not sure we're going to go right back to 42. I think that that may be a little bit. But I don't think there are many quarters that begin with the three.

As we see that come back -- I mean, some of the expenses we saved; travel expenses, business development, that's really kind of the circumstance that we're in today. We do think that travel helps, we think that helps close deals. We think -- and so we're going to get back into that when that's feasible from a social distancing and state regulation scenario allows. So yeah, we're going to be back. And so I would look at the 115, I'd look more at the 120 and where we were before in terms of something closer to a run rate.

Christopher McGratty -- KBW -- Analyst

That's perfect. Thanks, Dale.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Young of SunTrust. Please go ahead.

Michael Young -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Hey, thanks for the question. Wanted to follow-up first on the reserve. I think that's gotten a lot of attention. I've had a lot of questions about it. I'm trying to get to a more comparable figure to maybe other banks. If we kind of backed out mortgage warehouse and maybe the large resi mortgage purchase portfolio in PPP loans, I think you guys might be more on par with other banks. But I didn't know if there is a way to kind of disaggregate that where we could maybe see it on a more comparable basis?

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

Yeah. This is talking around book a little bit. But when you think through our loan loss reserve compared to other banks, first, always recognize that we don't have a consumer franchise, and that's where a lot of the losses will begin to mount. That's number one. Number two, I break our book into loan categories where we've had no losses; resort finance for $900 million, capital call lines $500 million, HOA Services $300 million, warehouse lending $2.9 billion. That's $4.5 billion that we've never had a loss in. Then we've got another $4 billion where we've had limited losses in residential loans, consumer muni loans and non-profit. That too adds up to about $4 billion. So as you think about our funnel of $25 billion, you can take roughly $8 billion almost off the top for either no or low losses. Now, of course, you're not going to do that, but I think you can add a small percentage of basis points to cover your losses against that $8 billion and then recalculate the reserve ratio, and I think you'll find that it will rise considerably above the 1.24%.

Another thing that I think is helpful for you to think through when you look at our book, and this is how we look at it. Our construction land and development, which is about $2.2 billion. The book there is looking very strong and it is responding and acting differently than the prior cycle. First, we have about a third of that book sitting in lot banking, right? And in lot of banking, we have a LTV of about 55% with well-capitalized, a highly liquid sponsors, i.e., private equity or hedge funds that are guarantors here. So that book of business is performing very well. We have no deferrals there. And in fact, instead of getting deferral request, we're getting just the opposite. We're getting incoming calls. People saying, you don't have to worry about me paying my bill, but you have to be there when I see opportunities. And that's an easy thing for us to say, if you are making your payments as agreed to based on the terms that we've usually use, we'll be there to help you.

So the CLD book is somewhat different too. And then on top of this, and I know people like to go back and say, well, what happened to Western Alliance in 2008 and '09 and '10 and draw from that some type of a regression analysis. But when you look at the prior cycle, the credit physics, if you will, from the prior cycle to where we are today, completely different, almost a full turn around. So in the prior cycle you had high unemployment, OK? That stays where we are today. But the prior cycle, you had high unemployment, high delinquencies, high charge-offs, low home prices. You had a rising supply of home prices. You had income dropping and you had demand dropping for these homes as well. In the current cycle, yes, employment is higher than the prior cycle, but you don't see the rise in delinquencies, you're not seeing the rise in charge-offs, home prices are either flat to rising, supply has not grown and income, with the help of fiscal policies by the government, income has risen and demand is higher.

So when we look at the appropriate reserve for our construction land and development book, we had to put all these overlays on top of the historic modeling that you would see in order to represent what we see happening in our book of business today. So you put that together, you also acknowledge that we have no energy loans, we have limited restaurant loans, we have very few solar loans, all that stuff collectively together got us to our reserve calculation.

Michael Young -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

That makes sense. And just as we move forward, I mean, the main thing that would drive a big delta in the reserve would be losses in some of those historically low loss categories. Is that kind of the right way to think about that or would it be the more significant downgrades in other categories that have had historical losses in the past?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Well, I mean effectively, we're in a scenario that you pay losses as incurred, right? Your ACL covers what's still in the book out there. Now if we had a loss in a category that previously has been zero loss and we expected it to have zero, that would inform the analysis and the expectation of loss in what's still out there. And gosh, maybe you got that wrong, maybe there is a defect in what you're doing there that is embedded in other loans. And so in that sense, it could drive a higher provision. But for the most part, it's almost pay as you go and sustaining your level of reserve based upon your outstanding balance and changes in the outlook of the economy.

Michael Young -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Okay. And maybe just one last follow-up. I think you guys have outlined a lot of detail on some of the most in-focus loan segments. But are there any other sort of tangential categories that we should have on our radar screen? Maybe C&I relationships or something that might be related to one of the underlying categories just that we should be thinking about or that should be addressed?

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think that's a fair question. And inside of our CRE book, we have three components to it. We have industrial. And there, 99% of our borrowers, customers are paying their rent. We feel comfortable there. We have office. There, 90% of our borrowers, customers are paying rent, right? But we have a CRE book for retail, about $700 million, just a touch over $700 million. There, 66% of our borrowers, customers are paying rent compared to a 50% national average.

Now I'm not saying there is any problem there, but you asked what are we focusing on, what has our elevated attention today? That is an area that has our elevated attention. We don't have to move quickly on it. We're watching it. It has -- it's got a very -- it had a very strong debt service coverage ratio coming into the downturn of 1.8 times. It has a very low LTV of 48%. We don't have much speculative loans there at all. So I'm not -- I want to make sure I'm clear. Don't run away saying there was a problem. You asked, where are we also watching. That is an area that we're watching.

Michael Young -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks for all the color. I appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes from David Chiaverini with Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead.

David Chiaverini -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Hi, thanks. My first question is on the mechanics of the deferral program. If we use the six and six program as an example, so the first six months, they are accruing interest, you pull the P&I from the accounts that they deposited in, everything's normal. But after the first six months, as we get into 2021, what happens to those loans in terms of the treatment of it? Do they go on non-accrual or did they move to special mention or classified? I'm just curious as to whether or not they'll continue to accrue interest in the second half of the deferral period.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, no. So the loan docs have been modified. And so the contractual payments now allow for that. There is no new payment done due until, I'm going to say, May of '21. So you're right. I mean, we take the six months, they paid upfront of P&I and then we debit that. And we recognize that liability, and we paid the loan down over that six months. Then for the next six months, what we do is payment regarding principle is deferred, and interest payments that otherwise would have been due are now tacked on to principal that do -- usually at the end of the maturity of the loan. It could be earlier, it could be a year out or two years out or something like that when that's going to become due again.

So we're going to continue to accrue income and increase effectively the balance on that loan for the next six months. It doesn't move to any classification unless we have information that there is another problem with the situation that has since developed. But otherwise, it would stay like that. And then after that expires, then they're back to their standard P&I payments as originally agreed.

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

It's Tim Bruckner. I would add one, just one thing on the inter-relationship of our strategy and risk rating, because I don't want this point to be missed. We -- one, it's not -- that's not a direct relationship. Is the deferral in effect or not, does not directly affect the risk rating. The weekly dialog with our borrower and verification of liquidity to work through that plan, that is the important calculus in our risk rating methodology. So all the time we are in constant and ongoing dialog with the borrower, ensuring that they are closing the gap and that there is sufficient liquidity through the cycle. So if we get to a point where those mechanics change and we feel differently about that, that's when we would affect the risk rating. I wanted to be clear on that.

David Chiaverini -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

That's helpful. And then shifting gears to the provision. As we think about the third quarter, and clearly, there's a lot of uncertainty on the macro outlook. But if we were to assume the macro outlook is stable from here, you mentioned about how you're expecting flat or low loan growth, what would that translate to in terms of provisioning? Are we thinking back toward -- I mean, I don't want to be too optimistic and think of 2019 levels, but what should we -- how should we think about provisioning over the next couple of quarters?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Well, yeah. I wouldn't go back to 2019 either, but I would think that it would fall off fairly significantly. And that is, as you saw this quarter, I mean, the entire reserve increase in provision resulted from a deterioration in the outlook from March 27, the last Mark Zandi deal in the first quarter to where we are today. So if that's fairly stable, as we'll be maybe as a bit of a pay as you go in terms of losses. So if we incurred losses, we're going to recognize that. If we have migration downward not into SM, but into substandard, into non-performing, that could trigger additional provisioning requirements and charge-offs. But other than that, if charge-offs don't really materialize, I think that number could drop rather dramatically actually over time.

David Chiaverini -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question will come from Brock Vandervliet of UBS. Please go ahead.

Brock Vandervliet -- UBS -- Analyst

Thanks. Most of my questions have been answered. Dale, how did you kind of thread the needle with the -- especially in the hotel book, the restructuring that you're -- the deferral that you've structured, especially the longest term ones out to mid '21? How is that not a TDR?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Well, so the kind of the special dispensation that came out from the FRB extended that window a little bit. So prior to that rule change, banks could essentially do a 90-day deferral on anything without having it fall into a restructuring. So if there is some temporary hardship, you can basically dole out over the life of the loan, 190-day push out. And that's been the case, gosh, since I've been doing this for decades. What they allowed is that you could instead for this -- for credits that have been impaired by the pandemic, you could double that and you can take it six months.

And so that's all we've done, is we've said, OK, well, that's -- we can do six months. So we will allow the longest you can go and not have it fall into a restructuring situation. And then -- but then they're paying again. So the amount of time that they go on a deferral is within that window and within the guideline that was allowed. Because even though it's a year, they've prepaid six months in it.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. This is a broad -- Ken here. There is a difference between a solution to how we bridge the gap over the next year with them versus the deferral time. So the solution is for a year. The deferral is six months of that year. And the other six months, they give us the cash upfront.

Brock Vandervliet -- UBS -- Analyst

Got it. Got it. Okay. And any more color on the negative provision? You touched on it in one of the earlier questions in one of the national businesses, and I think there is a $2 million one in the HOA business seemed just unusual timing this quarter?

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, yeah. So again, I mean, we go through this process and have all these multiple regressions and then you come back and you look at it, and say, OK, is this helpful? Are we learning something about this or is something kind of overstated? Well, the HOA loan portfolio is quite small. And so it had been in a kind of a separate category, caught up in C&I loans. Well, when you look at the HOA loans on a stand-alone basis, the idea that they're going to have loss behavior, anything like a C&I loan or that kind of risk profile is really overstated. I don't know -- I'm sure there is somebody somewhere. I don't know anyone that's ever lost a dollar in an HOA loan. Because when you make an HOA loans, if the HOA becomes delinquent, you get to jump in front of the first position lender on whosever house it is in that HOA, that's delinquent.

So if I don't pay my HOA fees and that causes my HOA association to not pay, they can come after me and they get a lean in front of my first mortgage. So your LTV on that loan is less than 1%. I mean, that's just ridiculous. That's just going to sit there forever. So you get your money eventually. And so a loss rate really on HOA loans should be darn near zero. The reason why it wasn't originally is because it was embedded in large -- in a larger group of C&I loans because it was so small. Highlighted that change and addressed it with segmenting that particular target.

Brock Vandervliet -- UBS -- Analyst

Got it. Okay. All right, thanks for the color.

Operator

The next question comes from Gary Tenner of D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Gary Tenner -- D.A. Davidson & Co. -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to ask a question on the hotel deferral strategy. Ken, I think you mentioned that you had some sponsors, basically coming to you and saying, you know I'm glad we did it this way, the six plus six. That said, I'm sure they all would have happily taken a six month deferral without paying six months of accelerated cash. So how can you be confident that kind of post-COVID there is not any negative fallout in terms of business or relationship versus with some of the sponsors with the bank?

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. I think that's a fair question. 66% of our book is with large sponsors, and those are sponsors with 25 or more hotels. And they generally deal with about 88% of their book is all connected to the top brands, the Marriott, the Hiltons, the Hyatts, right? And what they have seen from us is our deep knowledge of the industry and people like working with other folks that have an understanding of the knowledge of the industry.

I'm going to move to a different group for a second to highlight this as well. We are gaining a lot of share in warehouse lending. One of the most -- if I had to pinpoint the most familiar reason why we're getting new customers is because our new customers are telling us that some of their incumbent banks don't understand the space the way we do. And they don't want to be dependent upon a lender that doesn't understand the space and may do something irrational, all right?

So back to hotel, we don't -- we didn't do anything that was irrational. We actually started with the relationship very early by saying, you always need to have a lot of equity in this relationship. That's the first thing. We then work through the models. Of course, we make sure this is the right debt service coverage ratio, make sure they have the right NOI margins, make sure they've got a model that works in down times, and you're seeing that now. You're seeing the model work in down times as our customers are able to lower their ADR and take market share from the lower brands, all right, and move that market share to their hotels because people like to go to a nicer hotel for a lower price, all right?

Now all those things connected together indicate that our customers like working with us and they know that we understand that market. And I think what you're going to see here, and this will play out over time. So you can ask me this question six months or nine months from now assuming that the economy is returning to normal. I think you're going to see a lot of our smaller competitors that just do one or two hotels here and there, smaller banks. I think they're going to lose business to us. Because over the long-term, I think our clients want to deal with someone that know how to grow. And by the way, we're still in business. We're not shutting down lending, OK? We're not doing any right now because there are no deals. But we have told our clients, if you've got a good deal, you have an opportunity, we're there to finance you if you are working with us and showing commitment to your existing projects.

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

I call this tough love, because I don't think they didn't like it, to begin with. But I think we've kind of earned some respect with some of them. And the large majority of our borrowers have resources that are here for the long haul.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

I think of it this way, that comes to a certain point where your kids think you're smart then all of a sudden your kids think you're really dumb, and then they return to say, boy, how did my dad and mom gets so smart again? Well, I think this is what you're going to see with our clients. They're are going to say, we didn't agree with this project first, but you know what, these guys had a smart approach to this and it was a differentiated approach. And what was interesting that people don't understand is, it put our clients in front of us to talk to us, right, before the other banks even had a conversation.

So a lot of these other banks did a 90-day open-ended deferral cookie-cutter, you've got it, I'll see you in 90 days. We came in with a solution. We said, wait a minute. You have a bigger -- we have a bigger problem. The industry has a bigger problem. The economy has a bigger problem. This is our viewpoint. This is why we see -- this is how we see it playing out. And good or bad, at least they can respond to your viewpoint and your vision of tomorrow and how you want to solve for it.

Gary Tenner -- D.A. Davidson & Co. -- Analyst

It's great. I appreciate the thoughts.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Vecchione for any closing remarks.

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you all for your time today. We appreciate it. We went a little bit longer, but we were happy to do so to make sure that all of your questions were answered thoroughly. So we'll be in touch. We look forward to seeing you again in person one day. Thank you all.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 82 minutes

Call participants:

Kenneth A. Vecchione -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Dale Gibbons -- Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer

Tim R. Bruckner -- Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

Casey Haire -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Timur Braziler -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst

Christopher McGratty -- KBW -- Analyst

Michael Young -- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey -- Analyst

David Chiaverini -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Brock Vandervliet -- UBS -- Analyst

Gary Tenner -- D.A. Davidson & Co. -- Analyst

More WAL analysis

All earnings call transcripts

AlphaStreet Logo