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Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC)
Q2 2020 Earnings Call
Jul 30, 2020, 9:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:


Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Northrop Grumman's second-quarter 2020 conference call. Today's call is being recorded. My name is Shelby, and I'll be your operator today. [Operator instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr.

Todd Ernst, treasurer and vice president, investor relations. Mr. Ernst, please proceed.

Todd Ernst -- Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks, Shelby. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Northrop Grumman's second-quarter 2020 conference call. We'll refer to a PowerPoint presentation that is posted on our IR web page this morning.

Before we start, matters discussed on today's call, including 2020 guidance and beyond reflect the company's judgment based on information available at the time of this call. They constitute forward-looking statements pursuant to safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which are noted in today's press release and our SEC filings. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual company results to differ materially.

Today's call will also include non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP results in our earnings release. On the call today are Kathy Warden, our chairman, CEO, and president; and Dave Keffer, our CFO. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Kathy. Kathy?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thank you, Todd. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We hope you and your families are safe and healthy. I want to start by thanking our employees and recognizing their resiliency and dedication in driving strong second-quarter performance in the midst of the COVID pandemic.

Along with our customers and suppliers, we quickly stood up new work processes and safeguards that allowed us to continue fulfilling customer commitments while strengthening our foundation for the future. And now as we see new outbreaks of coronavirus in our community, we continue to prioritize the safety and well-being of our team. This includes flexible work schedules, teleworking, child care assistance and stringent operating protocols aligned with CDC guidelines to help protect our employees and their loved ones. We also continue to support our suppliers, healthcare providers and communities through volunteer time, supplies and financial resources.

Turning to the results for the quarter. Despite the challenges of the coronavirus, we delivered a very strong second quarter operationally and financially. Sales grew 5%, driven by 15% top line growth in Space and continued growth at Aeronautics and Mission Systems. Segment operating income grew 4%, in line with sales growth, and we generated an 11.6% segment operating margin rate.

Cash generation was particularly strong. Cash from operations increased 45% to $2.3 billion, and free cash flow increased 53% to $2.1 billion after capital spending of $269 million. Our cash results reflect solid operational performance and benefited from actions taken by our customers to support the industrial base. We passed the full supplier benefit of higher progress payments to our suppliers.

And we have also instituted our own acceleration of payments to many of our most vulnerable suppliers, totaling nearly $500 million year-to-date. In addition to those financial highlights in the quarter, we continue to execute our long-term growth strategy. Second quarter awards totaled $14.8 billion, a book-to-bill of 1.7 times sales. And our total backlog has increased 8% since year-end 2019 to more than $70 billion.

The strength of our awards demonstrates our portfolio's alignment with the nation's most critical security priority, including space, nuclear deterrence, advanced weapons and all-domain command and control. Our innovation and timely investments in these areas are enabling our customers' vision for future operations. In Space, rapidly evolving threats are driving an urgent need for advanced resilient capabilities, and we are competing successfully in this domain. In the second quarter, new awards at Space Systems totaled $9.2 billion, which included $5.9 billion of restricted awards.

In addition to restricted awards, we also booked $1.9 billion to develop two polar orbiting satellites for Next Gen OPIR and approximately $150 million for the preliminary design and development of HALO, the first crew module for NASA's moon orbiting space station as part of Artemis. And we were selected by commercial customers to build four satellites under two separate awards totaling more than $400 million. These awards support the Federal Communication Commission's order to make the lower portion of the C-band spectrum available to mobile network operators, enabling the rollout of critical 5G services. We are also supporting the modernization of the nation's strategic deterrent with GBSD.

GBSD continues to be on track for a late summer award. We expect a booking of between $10 billion to $15 billion for the engineering, manufacturing and development or EMD phase of the program, with production to be negotiated at a later date. The successful completion of the preliminary design review in May validates that we are ready to enter the EMD phase. We look forward to delivering a secure, reliable and effective nuclear deterrent capability to our nation.

Based on current backlog and future opportunities, we continue to expect Space will be our fastest growing business. In advanced weapons, we are providing innovative solutions that address the need for higher speed, advanced sensors and precision capabilities. Our broad portfolio of advanced weapons capabilities, including hypersonics, precision systems, directed energy and advanced munitions continues to be a source of growth. After completing successful critical design review last quarter, AARGM-ER achieved another milestone in the second quarter.

The Navy conducted the first AARGM-ER captive carry flight test on the F-18 Super Hornet, and we've begun with tunnel testing. This system provides opportunity to grow our share in the tactical missile market. Also in the quarter, we announced that we surpassed the production and delivery of 50,000 precision guidance kits for a 155-millimeter artillery projectile. And year-to-date, we've booked $154 million in modifications to our big contract for PGK production with the U.S.

Army and U.S. Marine Corps to produce additional kits. Our overall weapon systems bookings within our defense systems segment are up year-to-date with a 1.2 times book-to-bill. Through our successful integration of Orbital ATK into the Northrop Grumman portfolio, we are realizing the strength of the combined team in our Space and weapons business performance.

We are also proud to be enabling the next generation of battle management. Our networking and computer technology is being incorporated into demonstrations and systems of records, showing the value of our open systems, which are affordable and platform agnostic. Next-generation programs like Joint All-Domain Command and Control, known as JADC2, are aimed at creating an information architecture across all domains. Our experience with the Army's IBCS program and ABMS for the Air Force will help enable the Defense Department to extend the any sensor, any shooter capability across all services.

And we are making considerable progress on the IBCS program. Together with the Army, we entered the final round of preparation and trading for the systems' multiweek limited user tests that began shortly after the end of the second quarter. Successful completion of this EMD milestone will support IBCS production, deployment and fielding to execute the Army's integrated air and missile defense modernization strategy. We are on track for the milestone fee decision later this year, which positions the program to enter production.

For the current generation of mission systems and sensors, we continue to deliver advanced capabilities to address evolving threats. In the mission systems sector, we delivered F-35 radar, DAS and CNI chipsets in quantities comparable to or better than the second quarter of 2019, despite the impact of COVID. Our SABR radar upgrades also continue. During the quarter, the Air Force completed integration of our SABR radars on Air National Guard F-16s at its Joint Base Andrews and New Jersey Air National Guard Bases.

Seven additional bases are scheduled to receive SABR upgrades in the coming months. MS will also be supplying our radio frequency countermeasure Systems for the C-130s operated by the Air Force Special Operations Command. Our RFCM systems will help to improve the C-130's aircraft survivability and protect aircrews from air and land-based enemy radar and missile systems. Looking ahead, we are competing for the next generation of electronic warfare capabilities, including Next Gen Jammer Low Band, which should be awarded later this year.

Turning to aeronautics sector. Through the end of the second quarter, we delivered 683 F-35 center fuselages, and we continue to manufacture at a pace that supports customer deliveries. We adjusted our outlook for F-35 fuselage production volume for AS in the first quarter to account for the anticipated impact of COVID, and this has not changed. In addition, during the quarter, we also received State Department approval for the future sale of three E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes and related equipment to France, opening the door to a future award opportunity.

And Australia committed to the purchase of three Triton air vehicles. With the B-21, as Air Force public statements indicate, we continue to make good progress. And the Air Force currently expects B-21s to move into low rate production following key development milestones scheduled to complete in 2022. We are also pleased by the policy changes announced last week regarding the export of unmanned aerial systems.

It is critical for our national security that our export policies continue to keep pace with the rapid evolution of technology and support collaboration with our allies. At the half point of the year, we're encouraged that despite the challenge of the pandemic, our team is delivering strong operational results. As we think about our full year guidance, we are assuming that our team's productivity as well as the operations of our customers and suppliers remains at or near current levels. Our update to guidance incorporates the strength of year-to-date results, our current assumptions regarding the continuing pandemic risks and their impact on us and an expectation that demand for our defense products and services remains strong.

Given that context, we are raising 2020 sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance. Based on our current assumptions, we now expect sales will increase to between $35.3 billion and $35.6 billion, and EPS will range between $22 and $22.40. And we are increasing guidance for 2020 free cash flow to a range of $3.15 billion and $3.55 billion after capital spending of approximately $1.35 billion. We are maintaining our guidance for segment operating margin rate at 11.3% to 11.5%.

And Dave will discuss each of these items in more detail. Turning to the U.S. budget environment. We expect to see continued strong bipartisan support for national security.

Even under scenarios of flattening or slightly declining defense budgets, we believe our portfolio will remain well aligned to our customers' highest priority investments. Defense spending is largely threat driven, and the threat environment warrants a strong defense. Despite fiscal pressures, emerging threats are intensifying, and we believe both political parties are focused on effectively countering these emerging threats. We saw demonstrated bipartisan support for defense spending in the recent House vote to pass the NDAA.

Before I close, I want to highlight that in 2020, Northrop Grumman was once again recognized as a Top 50 company for diversity. We are committed to equality, diversity and inclusion, not only in Northrop Grumman, but in our supply chain and communities. Our strong performance is enabled by the diversity of our team, which continues to expand. We have hired 8,000 new employees in the first half of the year, and we expect to hire more than 12,000 by year-end.

Through their second quarter performance, our team of dedicated men and women in partnerships with their suppliers and customers demonstrated their commitment to national security and human advancement. While future impacts of the pandemic remain uncertain, we have a robust pipeline of opportunities, and we are strengthening our foundation for growth. Despite the challenges that COVID-19 has presented for every business and individual, the Northrop Grumman team remains committed to the safety and well-being of our people, investing for the future, delivering value to our shareholders and meeting our commitments to our customers and all of our stakeholders. So now I'll turn it over to Dave.

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. I'd also like to thank our employees for their strong performance this quarter. My comments begin with second-quarter highlights on Slide 3. We delivered excellent bookings, sales, operating income, EPS and cash.

And we're pleased to be increasing our sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance for the year. I'd also note that as of April 1, certain unallowable compensation and other costs that we previously reflected in segment results are now in unallocated corporate expense. These are costs that are managed at the corporate level, and we made this change as we began to operate within the new sector structure. The Q2 impact of the change was minimal, only increasing second-quarter segment operating income by about $1 million.

This change has been applied retrospectively and recast results are presented in Schedule 7 of our earnings release. Slide 4 provides a bridge between second-quarter 2020 and second-quarter 2019 earnings per share. EPS increased 19% to $6.01. Operational performance drove $0.26 of the increase.

During the quarter, we recovered $0.23 of the negative return on marketable securities that we incurred in the first quarter. And year over year, this translated to a $0.17 benefit. Pension also contributed $0.49 of the year-over-year improvement. I'll begin a review of sector results on Slide 5.

Aeronautic sales were up 7% for the quarter and 4% year-to-date. Sales in autonomous systems and manned aircraft were higher in both periods. Higher volume on restricted programs and the E-2D drove higher sales in both periods, along with higher Triton volume in the second quarter. Higher volume in these areas was partially offset by lower volume on the F-35 program due to COVID-19 impacts in both periods.

At Defense Systems, sales decreased by 2% for the quarter and are up 2% year-to-date. Mission Readiness programs had higher volume in both periods, principally due to higher restricted volume, partially offset by lower volume on the Hunter sustainment program as it nears completion. Battle Management & Missile Systems had higher volume in both periods on programs like GMLRS and AARGM-ER. But these increases are being offset by programs nearing completion, including Lake City as that begins to ramp down and an international weapons program that is also winding down.

Mission Systems sales were up 2% in the second quarter and 4% year-to-date. Higher volume on airborne sensors and networks programs, where we had higher volume on radar programs like MESA and SABR, drove sales growth in both periods. These increases were partially offset in both periods by lower volume in Cyber & Intelligence Mission Solutions due to a program nearing completion. Space Systems sales rose 15% in the second quarter and 11% year-to-date due to higher volume in both business areas, higher volume on restricted programs and other space programs like Next Generation OPIR and the Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission, or ASBM program.[Audio Gap]Year-to-date, AS margin rate is 9.9%.

In both periods, the margin rate trend reflects lower net positive EAC adjustments in Autonomous Programs as well as a change in contract mix in Manned Aircraft. These trends were partially offset by a $21 million benefit in the second quarter related to the resolution of a government accounting matter that we had expected might occur later this year. At Defense Systems, operating income increased by 2% in the quarter and was comparable year-to-date. Operating margin rate increased to 11.5% in the quarter due to improved performance in Mission Readiness programs.

And their year-to-date margin rate of 11% is slightly lower, principally due to favorable adjustments on certain small caliber programs in the first quarter of 2019. Operating income at Mission Systems rose 3% in the quarter and 6% year-to-date. Operating margin rate increased to 14.2% in the quarter and to 14.6% year-to-date reflecting improved performance in both periods. Space Systems operating income rose 8% in the quarter and 7% year-to-date.

Second-quarter operating margin rate declined to 10.2% due to delays in production on certain commercial space components. And year-to-date operating margin rate declined to 10.3%. Turning to Slide 7. Based on better-than-expected Aeronautics sales in the second quarter, we're increasing AS sales guidance to the low to mid $11 billion range.

However, as we look beyond this year in AS, we expect to experience continued top line pressure in our commercial aerospace business and budget tightness in certain of our HALE programs. We continue to expect a margin rate of approximately 10% for AS in 2020. Sales and operating margin rate guidance for our defense, mission and space systems sectors are unchanged. Moving to consolidated guidance on Slide 8.

We're raising 2020 sales, adjusted EPS and free cash flow guidance to reflect the strength of year-to-date results. Driven by the increase in AS, we now expect 2020 sales will range between $35.3 billion and $35.6 billion, a $200 million to $300 million increase over prior guidance. Our higher EPS guidance reflects $0.20 of operational improvement that we experienced in the second quarter. No changes to expected tax rate or year-end weighted average share count.

Based on our second quarter results and current expectations for the remainder of the year, we expect mark-to-market adjusted EPS to be between $22 and $22.40.For free cash flow, we're raising the top of our guidance $100 million to $3.55 billion. Our Q2 cash flow reflected a combined benefit of approximately $300 million for the CARES Act, payroll tax deferrals and an increase in certain progress payments from our customers. For the year, we expect a combined benefit of $400 million to $500 million from these changes. We expect these benefits to working capital will be partially offset by accelerated payments to our suppliers and potential impacts of COVID on the timing of certain collections.

But given our expectations for the overall effect of these changes and the strength of our Q2 cash flow results, we have increased the top end of our free cash flow guidance range. Slide 9 provides a bridge between April's guidance and today's full year EPS outlook. The increase in guidance reflects $0.20 of second quarter operational improvement. I would note that we're not increasing guidance for this quarter's positive returns on marketable securities as there's still a long way to go until year-end and asset returns may continue to be volatile.

Regarding cash deployment, we continue to pursue a balanced capital deployment strategy that includes investing in the business, managing the balance sheet and returning cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. During the pandemic, we're also especially closely monitoring the health of our supply chain, and we're accelerating certain payments to help us continue to execute on commitments to our customers. Through the end of the second quarter, our year-to-date share repurchases totaled approximately $500 million, and we've met our approximate share count target for 2020. Share repurchases remain an important part of our capital deployment strategy.

We continue to be committed to paying a competitive dividend. And in May, we raised our dividend by approximately 10%. We're also focused on deleveraging the balance sheet, and we expect to retire $1 billion in maturing debt this fall. Before closing, one topic that I want to touch on is the potential upcoming R&D tax change.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act currently requires a shift from expensing R&D costs for tax purposes to amortizing them over 5 years, starting in 2022. As many of you know, this law would affect Northrop Grumman and many of our industry peers given the substantial R&D investments that we make each year. If the law is not changed before 2022, we would estimate a potential cash flow impact that could be approximately $1 billion that year. We would expect that impact would decline by about 20% each year for the following four years as the amortized cost approaches steady state closer to today's level of expense costs.

In closing, we're very pleased with our second quarter and year-to-date results. While our COVID-19 impacts in Q2 were less significant than we originally expected, the future path of the pandemic and its various related impacts on us remain uncertain. And we continue to monitor the situation closely. Overall, our portfolio is well aligned with evolving customer priorities.

We continue to execute to deliver value for our shareholders, and we continue to invest in the future. With that, Todd, I think we're ready to open up the call for Q&A.

Questions & Answers:


Operator

[Operator instructions] Your first question comes from Ron Epstein of Bank of America.

Ron Epstein -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good morning Kathy, could you just give us maybe a quick update, if you can, on where we stand with GBSD and when you might expect that decision to come?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Yes, Ron, thanks. We still expect that the Air Force will meet its schedule of making the award for the EMD phase of the program in late August of this year. And we are in the process of discussions with them to meet that objective.

Operator

Your next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Good morning everyone and thank you. Kathy, maybe for you. You talked about moving pieces within aeronautics margins. You had a settlement in the quarter, but overall profitability was better.

Can you talk about some of the puts and takes, maybe risk around COVID versus the offsets? And then I think you mentioned continued top line pressure in commercial area, which is obvious there and some budget tightening. So if you could elaborate on that.

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I'm happy to kick that one off, Sheila. So a few of the points you mentioned, I think, are worth talking about now. In AS, we did have a very strong operational Q2.

We talked on our last call about the COVID impacts on the business at the time of the call and on a Q2-to-date basis. Following that time line, there was quicker-than-expected recovery from the business impacts of COVID on our AS business. And as the quarter progressed, we also had favorable timing on some materials that boosted results of the quarter. And the nonoperational item that we talked about in our scripted comments and mentioned in our filings around the government accounting matter helped Q2, and we had thought that may occur later in the year.

So a very strong operational quarter, combined with those other factors I mentioned. On an ongoing basis, to your point, there are obviously continued pressures on the commercial portion of the business, but we're certainly pleased with the Q2 results of AS.

Operator

Your next question is from Peter Arment of Baird.

Peter Arment -- Robert W. Baird -- Analyst

Good morning Kathy, David, nice quarter. Kathy, can I ask a bigger picture question on the space segment. Just kind of touching upon the kind of long-term trends on the margin front. I mean you're getting all this growth.

I assume you're going to have GBSD kind of work flowing through here in a significant way. And given that over 70% of the mix is cost-plus, is this a segment that can hold kind of a 10% margin? Or how should we think about it, just given all the growth and success you've had here?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

So Peter, as we think about the margins for Space, you're hitting on the right points. The mix will be the biggest driver of margins rate over time. But we do expect to see significant growth in that segment. So margin dollar expansion, we're expecting to be quite solid.

But on the rate itself, as you noted, as we see that mix already a heavy preponderance toward cost-type contracts and then adding GBSD, which will also be a cost-type program for the EMD phase, for quite a while, we will have mix that lends itself to a lower margin rate than what we would experience if we had a higher volume of that business in production. But many of the programs in that business will move to production sooner than GBSD. So GBSD is one of the longest cycle of the programs in that portfolio. It will be an EMD for -- through 2029.

But with other programs that we are booking into Space, as you've seen, our bookings grow quite nicely, will transition to production in a shorter period of time. So we'll see that mix certainly evolve in the near term. But over the long term, we will still have a considerable amount of cost-plus business in that portfolio.

Operator

Our next question is from Seth Seifman of JP Morgan.

Seth Seifman -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Thanks very much and good morning Dave, you mentioned the headwinds on the top line in Aero next year. And just to -- is there a way to calibrate that a little more? Should we expect growth in the segment next year and it just will be more moderate because of those headwinds? Or do those headwinds prevent growth in the segment?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

So as we think about Aero on a go-forward basis, I would point to our year-to-date growth of about 4% in that business, which is in line with what we had expected for the year and what we're guiding. And although we're not guiding into next year at this point, we tell you the longer-term trajectory for that business is that it won't be one of our fastest growing segments. We've seen a good bit of that portfolio begin to shift also to cost-type work that grew significantly and now it's leveling out. And production also on our key programs, there is more at a steady state.

So the fastest-growing segments in our portfolio, certainly, the space, but aero will be a nice contributor to the portfolio in terms of the stable and steady programs that are large contributors not only to growth but solid margin rate performance.

Operator

Your next question is from Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

Rob Stallard -- Vertical Research -- Analyst

Thanks so much. Good morning.

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Good morning.

Rob Stallard -- Vertical Research -- Analyst

A very big yes, you had a very good quarter for order intake in Q2. And I was wondering if any of these awards will result in an increase in self-funded R&D or capex in terms of seed funding at the start?

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Rob, it's Dave. So it was a really strong quarter, particularly for restricted awards and particularly for awards in our Space sector. So we're really pleased with the backlog growth in those portions of the business.

We haven't changed our capex outlook for the year. Longer term, we've said in the past that we expect a similar volume of capex in 2021 before that begins to decline as a percentage of revenue thereafter. We think that capex outlook remains our best information as of today. And we'll continue to really focus those capex investments on the portions of our business with the strongest growth potential, key customers, key capabilities to drive differentiated capability in areas that are consistent with the national defense strategy.

Operator

Your next question is from Jon Raviv of Citi.

Jon Raviv -- Citi -- Analyst

Thank you and good morning Kathy, just kind of going back to big picture here. Obviously, there's a lot of conversation, which you addressed also in terms of pressured budget environment. But what is your perspective on accelerating growth? Not just sales but really EBIT dollar growth, segment EBIT dollar growth going forward just as the budget slows down. I think that's a little sort of digression that maybe is not always appreciated, that you guys can actually accelerate growth while the market might slow?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thanks, Jon. Yes, as our backlog is growing quite nicely, we see that providing a strong foundation for growth. We also are encouraged by our portfolio's alignment with the priorities in the national defense strategy. And I would tell you that goes beyond the defense strategy as it's written today.

It really is the look at our portfolio compared to the threats that our nation and our allies are facing. And we certainly see space as a domain where there will continue to be evolution of capability to address increasingly advanced threats from other nations and just the respect for space as a domain that now can offer much more war-fighting capability to our nation and its allies. That's one example, but I could give you the same as we talk about weapons and the evolution of weapon systems or the importance of networking, all of these war-fighting assets for advanced command and control. And so that type of alignment of our portfolio says that if the threat continues to evolve in the way that it is today, there would be durability in our ability to continue to grow.

And I'd point to one other thing, which is the innovation that we are driving as a company that addresses some of the nation's most critical threats and is allowing us to win the work that you're seeing show up in our bookings. That innovation is, as Dave alluded to, targeted investments that we're making in our R&D and our capex to be able to demonstrate for our customers the maturity of technology to address these evolving threats. And I'm quite proud of how our team is doing that. And it will be an increasing part of the selection process that the government uses to determine the partners they will work with on a go-forward basis.

So those three elements of how we're executing gives me confidence that this business can continue to thrive even in a flat or slightly declining budget environment if, and I think the primary if is the threat vector continues to be aligned with what it is today. And we expect that to be the case.

Operator

Your next question is from Doug Harned of Bernstein.

Doug Harned -- Sanford C. Bernstein -- Analyst

Good morning. Thank you. I wanted to go to aeronautics and specifically on F-35. And if you think about F-35 as now basically new production upgrades, sustainment, a lot of this would appear that you'll be topping out kind of a new production, but the upgrades and sustainment are going to be new growth opportunities.

How does Northrop Grumman play in those three? And how do you see that collectively contributing to growth over the next few years?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Doug, this is Kathy. The F-35 program will continue to be a really important part of our portfolio. We are involved in all three stages of the life cycle on the program. And I would characterize those as production, modernization and sustainment.

And for production, as we've noted before, we tend to run about 18 months ahead of Lockheed Martin in delivering a center fuselage and ahead also in the delivery of mission systems. So we will reach peak production sooner than Lockheed. But if you look at the quantities that they're projecting, we don't reach peak for a while on that program. Modernization is interesting in that for the mission systems, we actually will go back to retrofitting old platforms.

So the production volume there, once we get through the development stage of the upgrade programs, will increase production once again in mission systems. And then, of course, in sustainment, we're seeing that part of the portfolio grow as we get more aircraft fielded. And that's not just in the U.S., but as our global partners are also taking possession of the aircraft. So each of the stages of the program presents opportunity for us in the near term.

In the longer term, it's the modernization and sustainment stages that will support growth.

Operator

Your next question is from Carter Copeland of Melius Research.

Carter Copeland -- Melius Research -- Analyst

Hey, good morning Kathy, I wanted to ask you about the reimbursement of COVID costs and whatnot. I noted that in the industry's letter on the reimbursement of those costs that Northrop didn't participate in that. And I just wondered, do you guys have a lower COVID impact or you have better ability to absorb those costs. I just found that interesting and wondered if you can give us some color on it.

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thanks. So yes, it's true that I chose not to sign on to the letters. I want to make it clear, though, that we are supportive of a strong national defense and recognize that funds need to be appropriated to support that objective, and we are directly engaged in supporting that cause. However, we did see that our impacts from COVID were less significant than we are seeing projected elsewhere.

And therefore, we have continued to focus on that very issue, making these impacts as small as possible so that we are not in a position where we have an additional bill for taxpayers to get capability delivered. And we'll continue to be focused on that as our primary objective. And that includes everything from keeping our workplaces safe so that our employees can continue to come to work and feel that they can be productive. It's continuing to partner with our suppliers to ensure they have what they need to continue operating effectively and continue to work with our customers to be innovative in how we continue to get work done, even in light of constraints in how we would normally conduct operations.

And I would say on all fronts, our team has been both innovative, as well as strong partners to our teammates and customers to be able to navigate their way through, and that's allowed us to have this lesser impacts than we anticipated as we sat here a quarter ago.

Operator

Your next question is from David Strauss of Barclays.

David Strauss -- Barclays Investment Bank -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Hi Kathy, it sounded like you may, I guess, with these prepared remarks, you highlighted the headwinds that you're seeing as we look out to '21 in Aerospace Systems. Anything else, Kathy, as we think about modeling '21 which we should think about in terms of modeling and headwinds.

I think you might still have a bit of a headwind from Lake City and James Webb Space Telescope? Just trying to think about that as we look out to '21.

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

So I'll start, and then Dave can walk you through some of the details. As we look forward into 2021, there's nothing additional that we haven't already spoken about that present significant headwinds that we know of as we sit here today. The three things that I would point you to, and then Dave can walk you through them, is Lake City, as you said. The James Webb Space Telescope will launch next year, and so we have expected the volume to continue to decline as we near completion on that satellite.

You may have noticed that the date of the launch moved slightly next year from March to October based on some COVID-related impacts. That program is in final integration and test. And as a result, there are a number of observers from NASA, and the testing was impacted slightly by people's inability to travel and work full shift during COVID. So we did see a slight movement there in schedule, but we do still anticipate it to launch next year.

And as a result, that program will continue to decline in year-over-year sales. And then the third thing that I would point you to that we've spoken about on prior calls are some headwinds in the HALE portfolio with both Triton and Global Hawk. And as we work through this year's budget, we'll get better clarification on what those headwinds might be. They don't present risk in 2020.

But as we look forward into 2021, they could start to present some headwinds. So Dave, anything you'd like to add on any of those three or anything additional?

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Just a little more color on each of those topics. On Lake City, just to quantify that a bit further, we think the '21 headwind is likely to be around 1% of revenue. That's consistent with the range we've given in the past or an estimate we've provided before.

James Webb, as Kathy mentioned, I think will end up being more of a '22 headwind than a '21 headwind given the timing. That program is smaller in its annual revenue than Lake City. And then on the HALE portfolio, I think there are more moving pieces and budget determinations to be made and such, so I wouldn't begin to quantify that challenge next year or beyond. And of course, all of this, I think, should be cast as well with the light of the space program, which is expected -- or the Space business is expected to be our largest, our fastest-growing business not only this year but beyond.

The large new development programs in that business that have bolstered its backlog this year and should continue to do so are sources of nice top line opportunity in '21 and beyond.

Operator

Your next question is from Joseph DeNardi of Stifel.

Joseph DeNardi -- Stifel Financial Corp. -- Analyst

Good morning Kathy, can you just give us an update on the space logistics, the Mission Extension Vehicle opportunity that you kind of acquired through Orbital, maybe what some of the conversations are like there with customers. I think that's kind of a unique capability for you all. And then could you be a little bit more specific on when peak is for F-35? You said it's a while. Can you be any more specific?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thank you. Sure. Let me start with our Mission Extension Vehicle. As some of you may recall, we returned a customer satellite, Intelsat 901, to service in April of this year.

And it was the first docking of a life extension vehicle to an active satellite ever accomplished, and I'm very proud of the team for that first of a kind. It's opening up a whole new set of opportunities in mission extension. And under the terms of that contract, we are going to be working with this through SpaceLogistics for five years to provide those services. At the same time, we have been working on our second Mission Extension Vehicle, and it has arrived at its launch site in French Guiana, and we actually expect that launch to occur in the next few days.

And then MEV 2 will dock with another Intelsat satellite to provide life extension services for it, that docking should occur in early 2021. And this just gives you a little color on what's happening on the program. But to the broader point, this is a market area that we are pioneering first in commercial and the application of it also into military-grade satellites as the future holds. And this is something that our Orbital ATK team had started, but as we have integrated into Northrop Grumman, has continued, and we're leveraging the expertise and experience of the whole team as we look at this future set of opportunity.

You also asked about F-35. Really, I would not provide any additional color or guidance. As we do 2021 guidance, we'll share some more insight into what we plan for the three components of the program that I spoke about, production, sustainment and modernization. I would say that each of those three pieces of the program and in the two sectors, the two sectors that primarily support the program, AS and MS, there are a number of moving parts on those assumptions due to COVID-19 impact.

We're working very closely with Lockheed Martin to understand what those quantities are, and we'll be able to provide you more insights as we guide for 2021.

Operator

Your next question is from Myles Walton of UBS.

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. First one is a clarification, Kathy, on the $5.9 billion in classified awards in Space. Was that dominated by a single award? And I'm not sure you've ever got one quite that size before.

And then the other is, if you could just make a comment on the National Security Space Launch contract outcome or competition outcome? And what your intention is for OmegA, if it doesn't go your way?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thanks. Sure. So the large award in restricted space is indeed driven by a single award, and it is quite significant. I can't provide any color on what it is.

But suffice it to say, this is a long-term program as a result of the size of the effort. And in answer to your second question on National Security Space Launch, we are expecting that award to come later this quarter. And we have been progressing, as you know, to prepare our OmegA rocket for the requirements of the award, which would be to launch next year in 2021. We are on track.

We would be able to meet those requirements through our offering. And if we are not successful, we would continue to leverage that investment that we and the Air Force have made through the first two phases of the program into other propulsion activities in our GMV business. So this is an area that we, like many, selected to make this investment not only for the potential of a single contract award it represented in National Security Space Launch, but because it was a way to share research and development investment across a product line that we can now utilize for other endeavors.

Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn of Credit Suisse.

Rob Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning Kathy, I want to try to phrase this question in a way that you can hopefully answer. But typically, when you go from EMD to production on manned aircraft, do you tend to see margins on those first few LRIP lots below, equal to or above the margins that you saw toward the end of EMD? And is there any reason to think that, that behavior would change in the future?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thank you. So Rob, it depends on the contract on any given manned aircraft as to whether those first production units are incorporated into what's already been negotiated or whether they are indeed part of a new contract. And so if they were contracted as part of the initial award, you would not expect to see the booking rate change because their costs for development would already be incorporated into the booking rate of that effort.

Operator

Your next question comes from Cai von Rumohr of Cowen.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Yes. Thank you.

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thank you very much.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

So Kathy, you started out kind of highlighting all the wins in Space and you also mentioned that GBSD is still expected in August. And I think on the first quarter call, you said it might be about $200 million add to this year. Given all these wins, is there a decent chance that we will see Space volume build in the second half? And so instead of being a low $8 billion revenue number, it could be closer to a mid-$8 billion number?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Well, look, I'm really comfortable with our guide, which is approximately $8 billion. I believe I just said -- yes.

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Low $8 billion.

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Yes, low $8 billion. And so if you take first half revenue, you get to a number of just slightly below $8 billion. So to your point, there is some growth that needs to occur in the second half. But as I said, we're very comfortable with the guide, and that growth is reasonable based on what we know today.

Operator

Your next question is from Richard Safran of Seaport Global.

Rich Safran -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

Good morning. Kathy, Dave, Todd. How are you doing? Listen, I would like to ask you to, if you could expand on your comments on contract mix in Space. For the company overall, given your knowledge of new programs, could you discuss how you see the overall and long-term contract mix changing in terms of fixed price and cost-plus? How that might impact margins? And in your answer, could you also update us on the expected long-term growth of classified versus unclassified contracts?

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Rich. It's Dave. I'll be happy to provide that answer. Today, as we've talked about in the past, we're around 50-50 in terms of fixed price versus cost-plus in our mix.

And that, as you know, is heavily determined by the phase of the life cycle of programs that we happen to be in at any given time and the key drivers of that mix. On a going-forward basis, given some of the awards we've talked about to date and those that are expected in the second half of the year, in particular, those large development efforts in the Space business, we would anticipate that the cost-plus mix would increase above the 50% level and that the fixed price would decline. These are figures at the company level as opposed to at any particular segment level. Of course, cost-plus business, while perhaps more predictable and stable in margin rates in a typical scenario does tend to be at lower margin rates than our overall fixed price business.

And so as that mix shifts, certainly, we expect it to lead to margin dollar growth. And we'll look to offset a portion of that impact on overall margins through really strong contract performance, program performance, careful management of our costs, etc. And so that's the overall kind of trend that I think you should be expecting as we have these large new development programs entering the portfolio.

Operator

Your next question is from Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research.

Hunter Keay -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Hi everybody. Good morning Kathy, can you talk about the potential long-term opportunity for NGAD? I realize this is not a new program concept, but it feels like it's kind of coming into form with the Air Force's Digital Century Series initiative. So can you help me frame how you're thinking about NGAD opportunity through that lens?

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thank you. So we think about any new development program through a couple of lens. One, do we have a capability that we can offer a value to the government; and two, should we prime the effort or should we partner with the effort. And with our business and the opportunity for us to do work both on the platform itself and to the mission systems, we sometimes make those decisions together and sometimes make them separately.

I would say for Digital Century Series, because of the way it's developing and it's meant to be incremental and rapid, we continue to look at each increment and make the determination of where we can best add value. So both our mission systems and our aeronautics sector are engaged in meaningful dialogue with the Air Force on the program and have work associated with the effort, but these increments will each represent different opportunities based on the requirements and whether we would play as a prime at the platform level or as primarily a mission systems provider.

Operator

Your next question is from George Shapiro of Shapiro Research. .

George Shapiro -- Shapiro Research -- Analyst

Yes. Good morning Kathy, if you can, I want some more color on the F-35. It was kind of surprising to me that your revenues are down and Lockheed showed double-digit gain. So is that reflecting the 18 months that you're ahead of them? Or this quarter was just unique to COVID? Or any additional color you could provide contrasting the two different numbers.

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. We won't go so far as to talk about anyone else's results, but we'll give you a sense for ours in the quarter. There were some COVID impacts on the program in the quarter. We talked about the impacts on F-35, among other similar programs on our last call and experienced those impacts in the quarter, which did affect the year-over-year growth rate for the program in the quarter.

As Kathy mentioned earlier, the timing of our business related to F-35 in both the aeronautics segment and the mission systems segment are different than the prime's timing, given the nature of the work. And so I think you can expect slightly different kind of trends in those businesses over time, as we've had in the past. I think COVID impacts were the primary Q2 item of note, though.

Todd Ernst -- Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations

All right. We're at the end of the time here. So I'd like to turn it over to Kathy for some closing comments.

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Thanks, Todd. I'm going to conclude by thanking the Northrop Grumman team for their dedication and perseverance, which has enabled us to continue to operate so well during this global pandemic. It's taken innovation, partnership with our suppliers and customers, and just sheer determination. And I'm really proud of what they have accomplished this quarter and expect it will continue.

I want to wish you and your families continued good health. And thanks for joining us on the call today. I really look forward to engaging with you in the weeks and months ahead. Take care.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 61 minutes

Call participants:

Todd Ernst -- Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations

Kathy Warden -- Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President

Dave Keffer -- Chief Financial Officer

Ron Epstein -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Sheila Kahyaoglu -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Peter Arment -- Robert W. Baird -- Analyst

Seth Seifman -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Rob Stallard -- Vertical Research -- Analyst

Jon Raviv -- Citi -- Analyst

Doug Harned -- Sanford C. Bernstein -- Analyst

Carter Copeland -- Melius Research -- Analyst

David Strauss -- Barclays Investment Bank -- Analyst

Joseph DeNardi -- Stifel Financial Corp. -- Analyst

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

Rob Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Rich Safran -- Seaport Global Securities -- Analyst

Hunter Keay -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

George Shapiro -- Shapiro Research -- Analyst

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